Nolan Martinez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nolan Martinez P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%21.1%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	3	3	7	28	3	4	0	100%	2.3	10.7%	14.3%	-3.6%	0.0%	3.86	4.00	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	3	3	7	28	3	4	0	100%	2.3	10.7%	14.3%	-3.6%	0.0%	3.86	3.96	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	6	5	14	53	14	3	0	83%	2.3	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	0.0%	0.66	2.48	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	6	5	14	53	14	3	0	83%	2.3	26.4%	5.7%	20.8%	0.0%	0.66	1.71	—
2018	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	5	5	25	107	15	14	2	100%	5.0	10.4%	15.4%	-5.1%	3.0%	6.48	5.82	—
2018	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	5	5	25	107	15	14	2	100%	5.0	14.0%	13.1%	0.9%	1.9%	6.48	4.62	—
2019	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	7	6	33	133	21	9	1	86%	4.7	11.7%	8.0%	3.7%	1.1%	3.86	3.71	—
2019	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	7	6	33	133	21	9	1	86%	4.7	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	0.8%	3.86	3.04	—
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	2	4	19	6	0	1	67%	1.3	31.6%	0.0%	31.6%	5.3%	6.75	3.32	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	3	2	4	19	6	0	1	67%	1.3	31.6%	0.0%	31.6%	5.3%	6.75	3.35	—
2023	25	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	28	2	68	315	66	27	7	7%	2.4	15.5%	10.1%	5.4%	3.0%	6.06	4.70	—
2023	25	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	28	2	68	315	66	27	7	7%	2.4	15.5%	10.1%	5.4%	3.0%	6.06	4.70	—
2023	25	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	28	2	68	315	66	27	7	7%	2.4	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	2.2%	6.06	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ATL	43	0	45	191	40	19	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.63	4.68	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	41	0	43	180	38	18	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.83	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	ATL	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.63	4.68	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	20	0	21	89	19	9	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	148	31	15	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.0%	10.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	86	29	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.0%	10.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		52	23	151	655	94	67	15	44%	2.9	14.4%	10.2%	4.2%	2.3%	5.08	4.43	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	31	200	869	125	89	20	44%	2.9	14.4%	10.2%	4.2%	2.3%	5.08	4.43	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.1%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.75	21.0%	11.0%	88	+0.18	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	77
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	77
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	74
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.65	18.4%	7.3%	248	-0.17	4.29	360	72
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	71
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	71
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	71
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	70
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.0%	9.9%	1.22	4.64
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65