Lake Bachar
P
Miami Marlins
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.25
FIP4.46
xFIP3.79
SIERA3.48
K%24.5%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%15.0%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†6060
SL+1.3 (46%)
FB (34%)
CU (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 5 | 37 | 143 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 3.19 | 2.85 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 13 | 7 | 51 | 201 | 47 | 14 | 7 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.38 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 18 | 115 | 497 | 80 | 46 | 18 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 4.68 | 6.23 | -1.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 20 | 133 | 561 | 133 | 60 | 18 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 44 | 17 | 10 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.15 | 6.61 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 42 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 69 | 25 | 4 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 2.69 | 3.82 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 57 | 1 | 82 | 355 | 96 | 35 | 13 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 3.95 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 56 | 1 | 74 | 307 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 3.89 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 62 | 23 | 8 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.25 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 66 | 275 | 76 | 27 | 8 | 27.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 3.84 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 72 | 27 | 9 | 27.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 66 | 26 | 9 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 25.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 267 | 59 | 606 | 2553 | 502 | 259 | 98 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.01 | 4.83 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 19 | 200 | 843 | 166 | 85 | 32 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.01 | 4.83 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lake Bachar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | — | 4.43 | 26.1% | 16.0% | 180 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.51 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .268 | 4.51 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | -0.00 | 2.86 | 596 | 75 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 74 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .247 | 3.95 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.43 | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 71 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 71 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 71 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.