Lake Bachar
P
Miami Marlins
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 81
ERA3.79
FIP3.94
K%26.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p7426.7%
xwOBA vs
p840.279
SL+1.3 (40%)
FB (36%)
SI (4%)
CU (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 5 | 37 | 143 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 33% | 2.4 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 1.2% | 3.19 | 2.85 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 5 | 37 | 143 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 33% | 2.4 | 28.7% | 4.9% | 23.8% | 0.7% | 3.19 | 1.79 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 51 | 201 | 47 | 14 | 7 | 54% | 3.9 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 3.38 | 5.09 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 51 | 201 | 47 | 14 | 7 | 54% | 3.9 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 16.4% | 3.5% | 3.38 | 3.87 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 115 | 497 | 80 | 46 | 18 | 67% | 4.3 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 4.68 | 6.99 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 115 | 497 | 80 | 46 | 18 | 67% | 4.3 | 16.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.94 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 133 | 561 | 133 | 60 | 18 | 80% | 5.3 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.93 | 4.32 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 133 | 561 | 133 | 60 | 18 | 80% | 5.3 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 44 | 17 | 10 | 26% | 1.7 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.15 | 7.19 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 44 | 17 | 10 | 26% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 6.15 | 5.15 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 42 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 69 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 2.69 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 42 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 69 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 1.6% | 2.69 | 2.92 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 82 | 355 | 96 | 35 | 13 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 3.95 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 82 | 355 | 96 | 35 | 13 | 2% | 1.4 | 27.0% | 9.9% | 17.2% | 3.7% | 3.95 | 4.10 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 1 | 74 | 307 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 3.6% | 3.89 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 1 | 74 | 307 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 2% | 1.3 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 4 | 50 | 206 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 12% | 1.6 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.58 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 65 | 268 | 71 | 25 | 8 | — | — | 26.6% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 3.62 | 3.69 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 65 | 274 | 71 | 25 | 8 | — | — | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 3.62 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 65 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 61 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 54 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 213 | 5 | 255 | 1066 | 273 | 103 | 37 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 4 | 200 | 837 | 214 | 81 | 29 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 294 | 63 | 647 | 2723 | 543 | 274 | 114 | 21% | 2.2 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 3.99 | 4.99 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 19 | 200 | 841 | 168 | 85 | 35 | 21% | 2.2 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 3.99 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lake Bachar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 25.9% | 9.8% | 3.6% | — | 4.72 | 25.0% | 14.8% | 115 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 70 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 68 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 68 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 67 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .268 | 5.01 | 24.4% | 14.6% | 112 | +1.42 | 3.59 | 331 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 65 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 65 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 65 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | 2.47 | 22.0% | 15.7% | 31 | -1.43 | 2.37 | 363 | 65 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.93 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.04 | 2.49 | 417 | 65 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 65 |
| Simon Castro R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 185 | 64 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.43 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |