Lake Bachar — OGILVIE

Lake Bachar P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 88

ERA4.04

FIP4.16

K%25.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

SL+1.3 (39%)

FB (34%)

SI (5%)

CU (19%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	5	37	143	41	7	1	33%	2.4	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	1.2%	3.19	2.85	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	5	37	143	41	7	1	33%	2.4	28.7%	4.9%	23.8%	0.7%	3.19	1.79	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	51	201	47	14	7	54%	3.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	4.4%	3.38	5.18	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	51	201	47	14	7	54%	3.9	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.5%	3.38	3.87	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	115	497	80	46	18	67%	4.3	12.9%	10.3%	2.6%	5.3%	4.68	6.22	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	115	497	80	46	18	67%	4.3	16.1%	9.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.94	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	133	561	133	60	18	80%	5.3	19.0%	11.9%	7.1%	3.0%	3.93	4.65	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	133	561	133	60	18	80%	5.3	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.2%	3.93	4.22	—
2022	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	27	7	45	202	44	17	10	26%	1.7	17.6%	9.3%	8.4%	6.8%	6.15	6.53	—
2022	27	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	27	7	45	202	44	17	10	26%	1.7	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	5.0%	6.15	5.15	—
2023	28	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	0	60	251	69	25	4	0%	1.4	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	2.3%	2.69	3.89	—
2023	28	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	0	60	251	69	25	4	0%	1.4	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	2.3%	2.69	3.89	—
2023	28	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	42	0	60	251	69	25	4	0%	1.4	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	1.6%	2.69	2.92	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	82	355	96	35	13	2%	1.4	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	4.2%	3.95	4.61	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	82	355	96	35	13	2%	1.4	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	4.2%	3.95	4.61	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	82	355	96	35	13	2%	1.4	27.0%	9.9%	17.2%	3.7%	3.95	4.10	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	74	307	81	28	10	2%	1.3	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	3.6%	3.89	4.07	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	74	307	81	28	10	2%	1.3	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	3.6%	3.89	4.07	+0.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	1	74	307	81	28	10	2%	1.3	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.3%	3.89	3.80	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	10	160	661	169	64	25	9%	1.4	25.6%	9.7%	15.9%	3.8%	3.72	4.22	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	48	9	79	325	83	33	13	19%	1.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	4.3%	3.52	4.60	-0.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	48	9	79	325	83	33	13	19%	1.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	4.3%	3.52	4.60	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	PIT	48	9	79	325	83	33	13	19%	1.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	4.0%	3.52	4.43	+0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	PIT	48	9	79	325	83	33	13	19%	1.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	4.0%	3.52	4.43	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.1	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	3.6%	4.04	4.16	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	PIT	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	3.6%	4.04	4.16	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	85	348	89	35	14	—	—	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	4.0%	3.55	4.57	+0.2
FULL	31	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	85	358	89	35	14	—	—	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.9%	3.55	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PIT	57	0	60	254	63	26	10	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	3.9%	4.69	4.84	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	PIT	52	0	55	233	56	25	10	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.6%	13.2%	4.2%	4.95	5.12	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	PIT	54	0	57	241	59	24	9	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	3.9%	4.69	4.84	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	52	220	52	23	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.6%	13.2%	4.2%	4.95	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	10	275	1146	287	114	45	5%	1.2	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.9%	4.16	4.38	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		161	7	200	835	209	83	33	5%	1.2	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.9%	4.16	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		310	68	676	2842	566	283	113	22%	2.2	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.0%	3.97	4.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	20	200	840	167	84	33	22%	2.2	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.0%	3.97	4.86	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lake Bachar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	25.5%	9.4%	3.5%	—	4.97	24.3%	13.9%	115	+0.54	—	—	—
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	76
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	73
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	70
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	69
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	68
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	68
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	68
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	68
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	119	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	67
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	67
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	66
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	66
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	66
Tyler Clippard R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	27.5%	9.2%	3.6%	.282	3.98	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.08	2.49	417	65
Vinny Nittoli R 2022 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	27.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.268	4.93	23.0%	14.6%	112	+1.27	3.66	331	65
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	24.7%	10.1%	1.49	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63