Kyle Hurt

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	16	3	21	2.53	2.58	27.2%	14.1%	0.5	K 29.1% · BB 16.6% · FIP 2.75
2025	27	AAALAD	7	0	9	1.93	2.56	23.8%	11.9%	—	K 23.8% · BB 11.9% · FIP 2.60
2026	28	MIX2 levels	57	1	57	4.76	3.51	30.1%	12.9%	0.7	K 29.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.49
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAD	36	0	38	4.12	4.14	29.9%	13.0%	0.2
2028PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBLAD	36	0	38	4.27	4.36	28.6%	12.9%	0.1
2029PROJ87% MLB	31	MLBLAD	31	0	33	4.46	4.59	27.5%	13.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%88

FB Velo79

xwOBA vs63

CompsJohn Axford (age 29) · Junior Guerra (age 30) · Oliver Drake (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA4.12

FIP4.14

K%29.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p9034.6%

p8829.3%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	4	21	92	36	10	2	33%	1.8	28.8%	16.4%	12.4%	1.9%	5.57	3.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	4	21	92	36	10	2	33%	1.8	39.1%	10.9%	28.3%	2.2%	5.57	2.34	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	72	333	109	59	4	76%	2.9	25.7%	19.8%	5.9%	1.5%	5.27	4.24	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	72	333	109	59	4	76%	2.9	32.7%	17.7%	15.0%	1.2%	5.27	3.25	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	94	394	155	44	10	59%	3.5	32.3%	11.9%	20.4%	2.8%	3.83	3.44	+2.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	94	394	155	44	10	59%	3.5	39.3%	11.2%	28.2%	2.5%	3.83	2.59	+3.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	21	92	25	13	0	19%	1.3	29.1%	16.6%	12.5%	0.0%	2.53	2.75	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	21	92	25	13	0	19%	1.3	29.1%	16.6%	12.5%	0.0%	2.53	2.75	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	3	21	92	25	13	0	19%	1.3	27.2%	14.1%	13.0%	0.0%	2.53	2.58	+0.5
2025	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	7	0	9	42	10	5	0	0%	1.3	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	1.93	2.60	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	7	0	9	42	10	5	0	0%	1.3	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	1.93	2.60	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	7	0	9	42	10	5	0	0%	1.3	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	1.93	2.56	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	57	256	77	33	6	2%	1.0	29.0%	12.5%	16.6%	2.3%	4.76	3.49	+0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	57	256	77	33	6	2%	1.0	29.0%	12.5%	16.6%	2.3%	4.76	3.49	+0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	57	256	77	33	6	2%	1.0	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.3%	4.76	3.51	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	2	54	231	64	23	5	4%	1.1	27.7%	10.0%	17.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.21	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAD	36	0	38	160	48	21	5	0%	1.1	29.9%	13.0%	17.0%	2.8%	4.12	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	43	0	46	192	55	25	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.36	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAD	36	0	37	158	43	20	5	0%	1.0	27.5%	13.0%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.59	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	36	0	38	160	46	21	5	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.36	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAD	31	0	33	139	38	18	5	0%	1.1	27.5%	13.0%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	2	125	529	148	62	14	2%	1.1	27.9%	11.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.05	3.70	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	3	200	847	237	99	22	2%	1.1	27.9%	11.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.05	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		144	43	274	1209	350	180	24	30%	1.9	29.0%	14.9%	14.1%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	31	200	882	256	132	17	30%	1.9	29.0%	14.9%	14.1%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 11 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.92 (+0.24)K% 32.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.76%	—	×0.860	28.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.97%	—	×0.900	17.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 9 IPFIP 2.60 → 2.73 (+0.13)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×0.900	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.956	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 15 IPFIP 2.58 → 2.75 (+0.17)K% 33.8% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.85%	—	×0.860	29.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.46%	—	×0.900	16.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.58 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 65 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.58 (+0.93)K% 39.4% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.43%	—	×0.810	31.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.100	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.083	×1.200	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 27 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.10 (+0.47)K% 38.5% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.53%	—	×0.860	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×0.900	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.006	×1.100	3.01%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 31 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.51 (+0.91)K% 26.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.810	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.89%	—	×1.100	24.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷0.993	×1.200	2.14%

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 41 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.93 (+1.09)K% 39.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.02%	—	×0.770	30.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.41%	—	×1.150	15.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.013	×1.250	0.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 16 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.77 (+1.44)K% 38.9% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.89%	—	×0.740	28.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.180	16.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷0.965	×1.300	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Hurt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.46	28.1%	15.2%	83	+0.32	—	—	—
John Axford R 2012 · 3.76 FIP	29	SU	3.76	30.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.300	3.87	24.3%	13.5%	175	+0.11	1.90	518	74
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	72
Oliver Drake R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	29.7%	10.9%	2.9%	.289	3.25	28.4%	20.1%	183	-0.32	2.26	317	71
Heath Hembree R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	29.2%	10.0%	3.9%	.291	4.73	29.7%	20.4%	117	+0.67	2.52	382	70
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	69
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	68
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	67
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	67
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	67
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	67
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	67
Kirby Yates R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%	.310	2.13	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.98	0.66	526	66
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	65
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	65
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	65
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	65
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	65
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	65
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	64
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	28.5%	12.2%	1.07	4.09
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*