Alex Scherff prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Scherff P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%23.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	70	289	54	24	7	94%	4.1	13.9%	10.0%	3.9%	3.6%	4.76	5.19	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	70	289	54	24	7	94%	4.1	18.7%	8.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.76	3.89	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	129	583	112	55	14	100%	4.8	14.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.94	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	129	583	112	55	14	100%	4.8	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	2.4%	4.66	4.05	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	127	46	13	1	0%	1.3	28.8%	12.8%	16.0%	1.4%	2.45	3.07	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	127	46	13	1	0%	1.3	36.2%	10.2%	26.0%	0.8%	2.45	1.74	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	27	120	28	15	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.8%	5.2%	5.1%	5.27	6.03	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	27	120	28	15	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.5%	10.8%	4.2%	5.27	5.08	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	267	73	37	7	0%	1.3	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	2.0%	4.14	4.08	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	267	73	37	7	0%	1.3	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	2.0%	4.14	4.08	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	59	267	73	37	7	0%	1.3	27.3%	13.9%	13.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	33	0	35	148	34	17	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.70	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	11	46	11	5	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	11	5	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	91	18	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		136	43	315	1386	244	164	41	32%	2.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	27	200	881	155	104	26	32%	2.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.75	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Scherff (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	23.0%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.70	22.8%	11.5%	35	+0.11	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	75
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	74
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	73
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	72
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	71
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	71
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	71
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	71
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	70
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	70
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	70
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	22.9%	11.3%	1.17	4.61
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16