Bryan Reynolds — OGILVIE

Bryan ReynoldsRF Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 31 S/R 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB BB +7% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.9 · 2026

wRC+†vL 109121vR 115

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .334 / .438

PA612

HR21

SB6

K%25

BB%9

xwOBA.357

Barrel%9.8%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

50→50

SPD

55→55

EYE

53↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

NTCDEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.9	$15M	+$0.9M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+1.4	$12M	-$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+0.9	$4M	-$11M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+0.4	$2M	-$14M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	—	—	—
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$95M		$29M	-$66M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$66M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	66	65	16	4	0	1	1	26	0	1	0	.246	.258	.354	.611	.108	.395	39	2	.256	54	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2017	22	A+	San Jose Giants	541	502	136	21	8	9	27	140	6	5	3	.271	.316	.398	.714	.127	.355	26	5	.307	93	-4	-0	+0	-6	+15	0.5
2018	23	AA	2 teams	459	412	112	20	3	9	36	113	4	5	4	.272	.336	.400	.737	.129	.347	25	8	.322	105	+2	-1	+0	-5	+13	1.0
2019	24	MLB	2 teams	603	543	173	35	4	22	51	134	6	6	4	.319	.383	.519	.903	.201	.387	22	8	.387	154	+37	-0	+1	-6	+17	4.9
2020	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	208	186	36	5	3	8	21	57	1	1	1	.194	.279	.382	.661	.188	.231	27	10	.287	78	-5	-0	+2	-2	+6	-0.0
2021	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	646	559	167	35	5	24	75	119	8	5	2	.299	.389	.508	.897	.209	.340	18	12	.377	146	+34	+0	+9	+2	+18	6.5
2022	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	614	542	146	19	5	29	56	141	14	7	3	.269	.353	.483	.836	.214	.313	23	9	.353	128	+20	+0	-6	+2	+17	3.5
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	640	574	152	29	5	26	53	138	7	12	1	.265	.334	.469	.803	.204	.303	22	8	.345	122	+16	+2	-6	-7	+18	2.4
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	692	622	168	25	3	24	57	156	10	10	2	.270	.341	.436	.777	.166	.324	23	8	.339	118	+14	+1	-13	-7	+20	1.4
2025	30	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	654	587	139	34	2	16	57	173	7	3	2	.237	.312	.383	.695	.147	.307	26	9	.303	90	-8	-0	-5	-7	+19	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	110	91	23	2	1	3	17	29	1	1	0	.253	.376	.396	.772	.143	.333	26	15	.333	113	+2	+0	-2	-1	+3	0.2
ROS	31	MLB	PIT	502	440	116	21	3	17	51	125	6	5	1	.264	.348	.441	.789	.177	.326	25	10	.346	123	+13	+1	-6	-5	+14	1.7
TOT	31	MLB	PIT	612	531	139	23	4	20	68	154	7	6	1	.262	.353	.433	.786	.171	.330	25	11	.344	121	+15	+1	-8	-7	+17	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB	PIT	593	522	134	24	3	19	60	117	6	4	0	.257	.340	.423	.764	.167	.297	20	10	.342	120	+13	+1	-11	-6	+17	1.4
2028	33	MLB	PIT	563	495	126	22	3	18	57	115	6	2	0	.255	.339	.420	.759	.166	.295	20	10	.336	115	+10	+0	-11	-6	+16	0.9
2029	34	MLB	PIT	514	453	113	20	3	15	51	110	5	0	0	.249	.332	.406	.738	.157	.294	21	10	.329	110	+6	+0	-11	-6	+15	0.4
2030	35	MLB	PIT	458	405	98	17	2	13	45	102	5	0	0	.242	.325	.390	.715	.148	.291	22	10	.321	104	+2	+0	-11	-5	+13	-0.1
2031	36	MLB	PIT	397	351	82	14	2	10	39	93	4	0	0	.234	.317	.370	.688	.137	.288	23	10	.312	97	-1	+0	-11	-4	+11	-0.6
2032	37	MLB	PIT	331	293	67	11	2	8	32	81	3	0	0	.229	.311	.362	.673	.133	.285	24	10	.301	89	-4	+0	-11	-4	+9	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8481	7551	1981	356	56	268	769	1940	98	66	23	.262	.338	.431	.769	.168	.318	23	9	.335	115	+140	+4	-91	-73	+240	22.5
/ 162G	—			650	579	152	27	4	21	59	149	8	5	2	.263	.340	.432	.771	.169	.317	23	9	.335	115	+11	+0	-7	-6	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	66	63	20	5	0	1	3	20	0	1	0	.317	.348	.444	.793	.127	.452	30	5	.352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2017	22	A+	San Jose Giants	541	491	153	26	9	10	37	106	6	5	3	.312	.366	.462	.829	.151	.376	20	7	.364	136	+22	-0	—	—	+15	3.8
2018	23	AA	Altoona Curve	383	331	100	18	3	7	43	73	3	4	4	.302	.387	.438	.825	.136	.362	19	11	.365	138	+16	-1	—	—	+11	2.7
2018	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	76	60	11	1	0	0	14	13	1	1	0	.183	.347	.200	.547	.017	.229	17	18	.274	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2019	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	546	491	154	37	4	16	46	121	6	3	2	.314	.379	.503	.882	.189	.387	22	8	.387	155	+34	-0	+1	-6	+15	4.4
2019	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	57	49	18	1	1	5	7	11	0	3	2	.367	.439	.735	1.173	.367	.394	19	12	.494	236	+9	-0	—	—	+2	1.0
2020	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	208	185	35	6	2	7	21	57	1	1	1	.189	.274	.357	.631	.168	.231	27	10	.284	75	-6	-0	+2	-2	+6	-0.1
2021	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	646	559	169	35	8	24	75	119	8	5	2	.302	.393	.522	.915	.220	.345	18	12	.400	164	+47	+0	+9	+2	+18	7.8
2022	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	614	542	142	19	4	27	56	141	14	7	3	.262	.346	.461	.808	.199	.306	23	9	.358	132	+22	+0	-6	+2	+17	3.7
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	640	574	151	31	5	24	53	138	7	12	1	.263	.333	.460	.793	.197	.304	22	8	.347	124	+17	+2	-6	-7	+18	2.5
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	692	622	171	29	3	24	57	156	10	10	2	.275	.345	.447	.792	.172	.330	23	8	.351	127	+21	+1	-13	-7	+20	2.2
2025	30	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	654	587	144	38	3	16	57	173	7	3	2	.245	.320	.402	.722	.157	.319	26	9	.322	105	+3	-0	-5	-7	+19	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			4000	3560	966	195	29	138	365	905	53	41	13	.271	.348	.459	.807	.187	.326	23	9	.356	131	+139	+3	-18	-25	+113	21.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Reynolds (OGILVIE)	31	55	50	55	50	.260/.343/.432	.172	.298	20	7	19%	10%	123	+3.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Emil Brown 2006 · MLB	31	55→58	50	54→50	51	.275/.340/.440	.165	.313	17	10	18%	8%	123	+3.3	.269/.333/.419	.150	.307	15	10	17%	8%	115	+2.7	.261/.323/.398	.137	.294	14	9	16%	8%	101	+1.4
●Leobardo Arauz 2008 · AAA	31	51→58	49→50	47→45	53	.256/.327/.399	.143	.282	17	9	16%	8%	108	+2.3	.263/.336/.395	.132	.285	14	7	13%	9%	109	+2.4	.267/.345/.386	.119	.289	11	4	11%	10%	111	+1.8
●Jason Heyward 2021 · MLB	31	50→60	51→55	48→50	58	.252/.341/.415	.163	.279	19	7	17%	11%	117	+2.9	.231/.309/.382	.151	.267	16	8	19%	9%	95	+1.4	.229/.304/.401	.172	.256	19	6	19%	9%	95	+0.6
●Asdrúbal Cabrera 2017 · MLB	31	51→61	52→55	49→50	49	.261/.318/.433	.172	.294	19	7	18%	7%	112	+2.6	.272/.335/.446	.174	.310	19	4	18%	8%	123	+3.3	.266/.337/.435	.169	.304	19	3	19%	9%	118	+2.7
●David Peralta 2019 · MLB	31	55→59	54→60	50→45	49	.282/.340/.468	.186	.319	22	7	19%	8%	130	+3.8	.278/.338/.450	.172	.325	19	4	20%	8%	124	+3.4	.270/.333/.420	.150	.322	13	2	19%	8%	109	+1.6
✕Jody Gerut 2009 · MLB	31	54→56	55	50	52	.275/.331/.465	.190	.290	22	12	15%	8%	126	+3.5	.250/.305/.413	.163	.269	18	10	15%	7%	102	+1.8	.234/.288/.381	.147	.251	16	7	14%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Alex Dickerson 2021 · MLB	31	53→54	56→55	47→45	50	.270/.339/.471	.201	.307	23	5	20%	8%	131	+3.9	.235/.299/.414	.179	.278	22	4	24%	7%	100	+1.7	.213/.276/.380	.167	.252	21	1	25%	7%	77	+0.1
●Neil Walker 2017 · MLB	31	53→57	55	46→45	51	.272/.337/.454	.182	.297	23	5	18%	8%	125	+3.5	.257/.338/.414	.157	.297	18	3	19%	10%	116	+2.8	.248/.339/.391	.143	.293	15	1	19%	11%	103	+1.4
✕Rangel Ravelo 2023 · MLB	31	53→55	56→50	48→45	53	.272/.345/.466	.194	.294	23	8	17%	9%	132	+4.0	.259/.345/.402	.143	.304	16	6	19%	10%	116	+2.8	.267/.368/.388	.121	.314	15	0	18%	12%	123	+1.4
●Seth Smith 2013 · MLB	30	50→56	52→60	49→50	54	.251/.328/.430	.179	.287	18	7	19%	10%	115	+2.8	.255/.340/.420	.165	.307	15	3	20%	11%	118	+3.0	.252/.347/.428	.176	.294	17	0	19%	12%	116	+2.2
✕Josh Reddick 2018 · MLB	31	57→63	50→60	49→50	54	.285/.342/.447	.162	.304	17	10	13%	8%	125	+3.5	.266/.326/.413	.147	.292	16	8	15%	8%	110	+2.4	.254/.317/.392	.138	.278	16	6	15%	8%	96	+1.0
●Christian Walker 2022 · MLB	31	50→52	53→65	47→45	50	.253/.327/.426	.173	.308	20	5	24%	9%	115	+2.7	.247/.326/.459	.212	.274	28	5	21%	10%	123	+3.3	.244/.329/.472	.228	.263	31	5	21%	10%	122	+3.4
✕Marwin Gonzalez 2020 · MLB	31	53→60	53→55	43→50	50	.269/.336/.442	.173	.314	20	5	21%	8%	122	+3.3	.228/.298/.364	.136	.277	16	5	23%	8%	86	+0.8	.196/.271/.310	.114	.241	14	5	24%	7%	59	-0.4
✕Ryan Church 2009 · MLB	30	52→55	53→55	45	51	.261/.335/.439	.178	.313	19	7	23%	9%	121	+3.2	.252/.318/.390	.138	.304	12	7	20%	8%	101	+1.8	.242/.307/.363	.121	.294	8	7	19%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Gio Urshela 2023 · MLB	31	54→62	48→55	49→40	48	.269/.321/.416	.146	.315	16	3	20%	7%	108	+2.3	.266/.310/.383	.117	.312	12	4	18%	6%	95	+1.4	.260/.301/.356	.096	.305	8	2	17%	5%	81	+0.2
✕Jedd Gyorko 2020 · MLB	31	49→53	52→60	49→45	53	.253/.329/.421	.168	.293	20	7	21%	10%	114	+2.7	.245/.324/.432	.187	.296	25	7	25%	10%	115	+2.7	.241/.331/.487	.246	.276	39	0	28%	11%	128	+0.8
✕Rob Refsnyder 2023 · MLB	32	53→59	50	48→50	50	.261/.344/.421	.160	.335	17	7	26%	10%	120	+3.1	.260/.348/.410	.150	.330	16	10	24%	10%	119	+3.1	.260/.353/.414	.154	.326	17	9	24%	11%	116	+1.2
●Kole Calhoun 2019 · MLB	31	47→56	50→60	46→50	54	.239/.319/.396	.157	.278	18	5	21%	10%	103	+1.9	.231/.318/.439	.208	.265	27	5	24%	10%	115	+2.7	.229/.322/.456	.227	.256	31	3	24%	11%	114	+1.6
✕J.C. Linares 2016 · AAA	31	51→54	51→55	46→40	47	.256/.325/.425	.170	.308	18	5	23%	7%	113	+2.6	.236/.302/.385	.149	.276	16	9	20%	8%	93	+1.3	.220/.292/.371	.151	.227	20	3	14%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Danny Bautista 2003 · MLB	31	57→59	50	50→45	50	.286/.335/.450	.164	.307	17	10	14%	7%	123	+3.3	.277/.328/.406	.129	.308	12	8	14%	7%	108	+2.3	.279/.330/.394	.115	.310	10	6	13%	6%	102	+1.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)