Rob Refsnyder

RF Seattle Mariners

Age 36 R/R 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 8.046 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	MLBBOS	307	.283/.359/.471	11	2	126	0.9
2025	34	MLBBOS	209	.269/.357/.484	9	3	128	0.8
2026	35	AAASEA	32	.207/.281/.310	1	0	21	—	.167/.219/.267
2026	35	MLBSEA	129	.140/.216/.254	4	0	27	-1.0
2027PROJ	36	MLBSEA	111	.242/.317/.416	4	1	109	0.3
2028PROJ	37	MLBSEA	80	.229/.303/.388	3	0	97	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.046First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd66

Barrel%64

Avg EV60

xwOBA57

Speed40

CompsJosé Hernández (age 36) · Nick Hundley (age 35) · Stephen Vogt (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 113109vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .317 / .416

PA111

HR4

K%25

BB%9

BABIP292

ISO162

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

250.231

POWER55

Barrel%

6410.3

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

6673.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 547 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

314

233

—

wRC+

147

◀◀L

wOBA

386

309

◀◀L

ISO

239

137

◀◀L

BABIP

332

330

—

24.2%

27.0%

◀L

BB%

11.5%

7.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 8.046 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.8M	-$0.6M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$1.4M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$2.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	182	162	39	8	0	4	16	25	3	11	1	241	320	364	685	123	261	14	9	310	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	511	413	117	28	2	6	78	70	11	16	6	283	407	404	811	121	326	14	15	367	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	62	54	20	4	1	0	6	12	2	7	0	370	452	481	933	111	476	19	10	419	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	333	287	86	19	1	8	41	67	2	4	4	300	391	456	847	157	364	20	12	376	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	244	228	78	19	5	6	14	38	2	5	5	342	385	548	933	206	391	16	6	408	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	47	43	13	3	0	2	3	7	0	2	0	302	340	512	852	209	324	15	6	369	123	+1	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.4
2015	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	525	450	122	28	2	9	56	73	9	12	2	271	361	402	763	131	302	14	11	340	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	175	152	38	9	0	0	18	30	1	2	1	250	331	309	641	59	304	17	10	292	79	-4	+0	-3	-7	+4	-1.1
2016	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	230	209	66	10	1	2	17	30	1	6	0	316	370	402	772	86	356	13	7	344	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	98	88	15	2	1	0	8	17	1	4	1	170	245	216	461	45	211	17	8	218	28	-8	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.7
2017	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	174	150	48	12	2	2	18	32	4	2	1	320	407	467	874	147	390	18	10	387	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	30	27	10	3	0	0	2	4	1	1	0	370	433	481	915	111	435	13	7	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	103	84	14	3	0	2	18	26	0	0	2	167	311	274	584	107	214	25	17	279	75	-3	-1	-0	-3	+2	-0.5
2018	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	208	184	52	10	0	4	18	46	4	0	0	283	357	402	760	120	356	22	9	342	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	338	302	94	21	2	10	31	87	1	0	2	311	377	493	871	182	402	26	9	380	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	200	273	233	506	33	300	32	6	234	44	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	157	139	34	7	0	2	17	40	0	1	0	245	327	338	665	94	327	25	11	303	91	-2	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.4
2021	30	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	80	66	21	5	0	5	12	13	1	0	0	318	430	621	1.052	303	327	16	15	449	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	177	153	47	11	0	6	15	46	6	1	1	307	391	497	888	190	394	26	8	388	142	+9	-0	-3	-4	+4	0.6
2022	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	182	147	45	14	0	6	28	42	5	4	0	306	433	524	957	218	386	23	15	419	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	243	202	50	9	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	248	365	317	682	69	316	19	14	318	97	-1	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.0
2024	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	307	272	77	16	1	11	28	78	5	2	2	283	359	471	830	188	359	25	9	367	126	+10	-0	-4	-3	+7	0.9
2025	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	209	182	49	12	0	9	24	54	1	3	0	269	357	484	841	214	331	26	11	368	128	+7	+1	-2	-2	+5	0.8
2026	35	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	129	114	16	1	0	4	8	37	3	0	0	140	216	254	470	114	158	29	6	212	27	-11	+0	+0	-2	+3	-1.0
2026	35	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	32	29	6	0	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	207	281	310	592	103	250	25	9	272	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1679	1459	359	74	3	37	174	393	23	22	9	246	335	377	712	131	308	23	10	320	103	+5	+1	-16	-21	+36	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	182	168	37	7	0	3	10	34	3	11	1	220	276	315	592	95	249	19	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	511	433	116	29	2	6	62	96	11	16	6	268	374	386	759	118	323	19	12	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	62	56	17	3	1	0	4	16	2	7	0	304	371	393	764	89	437	26	6	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	333	298	85	18	1	7	30	83	2	4	4	285	355	423	777	138	369	25	9	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	244	232	73	17	4	5	10	47	2	5	5	315	348	487	835	172	376	19	4	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	47	45	13	3	0	2	2	7	0	2	0	289	319	489	808	200	324	15	4	350	123	+1	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.4
2015	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	525	474	129	30	2	9	35	88	9	12	2	272	334	401	735	129	306	17	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	175	155	38	9	0	0	16	30	1	2	1	245	320	303	623	58	304	17	9	285	79	-4	+0	-3	-7	+4	-1.1
2016	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	230	214	64	8	1	2	12	36	1	6	0	299	339	374	713	75	345	16	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	98	90	15	2	1	0	7	17	1	4	1	167	235	211	446	44	211	17	7	210	28	-8	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.7
2017	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	174	156	45	11	2	2	12	40	4	2	1	288	355	423	778	135	364	23	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	103	85	14	3	0	2	18	26	0	0	2	165	311	271	581	106	214	25	17	279	75	-3	-1	-0	-3	+2	-0.5
2018	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	208	191	45	8	0	3	12	53	4	0	0	236	295	325	619	89	302	25	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	338	316	78	15	2	9	17	109	1	0	2	247	287	392	680	146	330	32	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	200	273	233	506	33	300	32	6	233	44	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	157	139	34	7	0	2	17	40	0	1	0	245	327	338	665	94	327	25	11	303	91	-2	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.4
2021	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	80	70	18	4	0	3	8	16	1	0	0	257	342	443	785	186	282	20	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	177	153	46	10	0	6	15	46	6	1	1	301	385	484	869	183	394	26	8	378	142	+9	-0	-3	-4	+4	0.6
2022	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	182	156	38	10	0	4	19	50	5	4	0	244	344	385	729	141	317	27	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	243	203	48	8	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	236	357	300	657	64	316	19	14	311	97	-1	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	307	275	74	14	1	11	26	78	5	2	2	269	343	447	790	178	359	25	8	355	126	+10	-0	-4	-3	+7	0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	209	183	48	11	0	9	23	54	1	3	0	262	348	470	818	208	331	26	11	357	128	+7	+1	-2	-2	+5	0.8
2026	35	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	129	115	16	1	0	4	7	37	3	0	0	139	208	252	460	113	158	29	5	209	27	-11	+0	+0	-2	+3	-1.0
2026	35	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	32	30	5	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	167	219	267	485	100	215	31	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	182	168	37	7	0	3	10	34	3	11	1	220	276	315	592	95	258	19	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	182	162	39	8	0	4	16	25	3	11	1	241	320	364	685	123	261	14	9	310	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	573	489	134	33	3	6	66	111	13	23	6	274	375	391	766	117	341	19	12	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	573	467	137	32	3	6	84	82	13	23	6	293	412	413	825	120	343	14	15	373	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	577	529	158	35	5	12	41	130	4	9	9	299	354	452	805	153	375	23	7	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	577	515	164	38	6	14	55	105	4	9	9	318	389	497	886	179	377	18	10	390	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	572	519	142	33	2	11	37	95	9	14	2	274	333	408	741	135	313	17	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	572	493	135	31	2	11	59	80	9	14	2	274	359	412	771	138	304	14	10	343	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	369	103	18	1	2	28	66	2	8	1	279	333	350	683	70	329	16	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	405	361	104	19	1	2	35	60	2	8	1	288	353	363	716	75	334	15	9	322	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	302	273	66	14	3	2	21	64	6	7	2	242	310	337	647	95	306	21	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	302	265	73	17	3	2	28	53	6	7	2	275	357	385	742	109	335	18	9	334	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	311	276	59	11	0	6	30	79	4	0	2	214	300	319	619	105	276	25	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	311	268	66	13	0	6	36	72	4	0	2	246	342	362	704	116	314	23	12	321	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	338	316	78	15	2	9	17	109	1	0	2	247	287	392	680	146	342	32	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	338	302	94	21	2	10	31	87	1	0	2	311	377	493	871	182	402	26	9	380	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	200	273	233	506	33	300	32	6	233	44	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	200	273	233	506	33	300	32	6	234	44	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	209	52	11	0	5	25	56	1	1	0	249	332	373	705	124	313	24	11	317	101	+0	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	237	205	55	12	0	7	29	53	1	1	0	268	362	429	791	161	327	22	12	352	101	+0	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	309	84	20	0	11	34	96	11	5	1	272	364	443	808	172	353	27	9	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	359	300	92	25	0	12	43	88	11	5	1	307	412	510	922	203	390	25	12	404	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	243	203	48	8	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	236	357	300	657	64	301	19	14	311	97	-1	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.0
2023	32	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	243	202	50	9	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	248	365	317	682	69	316	19	14	318	97	-1	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	307	275	74	14	1	11	26	78	5	2	2	269	343	447	790	178	337	25	8	355	126	+10	-0	-4	-3	+7	0.9
2024	33	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	307	272	77	16	1	11	28	78	5	2	2	283	359	471	830	188	359	25	9	367	126	+10	-0	-4	-3	+7	0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	209	183	48	11	0	9	23	54	1	3	0	262	348	470	818	208	320	26	11	357	128	+7	+1	-2	-2	+5	0.8
2025	34	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	209	182	49	12	0	9	24	54	1	3	0	269	357	484	841	214	331	26	11	368	128	+7	+1	-2	-2	+5	0.8
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	161	145	21	1	0	5	9	47	3	0	0	145	210	255	465	110	167	29	6	207	26	-14	+0	+0	-2	+3	-1.3
2026	35	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	161	143	22	1	0	5	11	45	3	0	0	154	229	266	495	112	177	28	7	224	26	-14	+0	+0	-2	+3	-1.3
2012	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	182	167	37	7	0	3	10	34	3	11	1	222	276	317	594	96	249	19	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	573	489	134	33	3	6	66	111	13	23	6	274	375	391	766	117	335	19	12	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	577	527	158	35	5	12	41	130	4	9	9	300	354	454	807	154	372	23	7	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	572	521	142	33	2	11	37	95	9	14	2	273	333	407	740	134	307	17	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	372	103	18	1	2	28	66	2	8	1	277	333	347	680	70	327	16	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	302	272	66	14	3	2	21	64	6	7	2	243	310	338	648	96	309	21	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	311	274	59	11	0	6	30	79	4	0	2	215	300	321	621	106	273	25	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	338	317	78	15	2	9	17	109	1	0	2	246	287	391	679	145	330	32	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	34	31	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	194	273	226	499	32	300	32	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	209	52	11	0	5	25	56	1	1	0	249	332	373	705	124	311	24	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	311	84	20	0	11	34	96	11	5	1	270	364	441	805	170	355	27	9	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	243	203	48	8	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	236	357	300	657	64	316	19	14	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	307	273	74	14	1	11	26	78	5	2	2	271	343	451	794	179	359	25	8	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	209	183	48	11	0	9	23	54	1	3	0	262	348	470	818	208	331	26	11	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	161	148	21	1	0	5	9	47	3	0	0	142	210	250	460	108	169	29	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	307	273	74	14	1	11	26	78	5	2	2	271	343	451	794	179	359	25	8	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	209	183	48	11	0	9	23	54	1	3	0	262	348	470	818	208	331	26	11	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	161	148	21	1	0	5	9	47	3	0	0	142	210	250	460	108	169	29	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	179	160	40	7	1	7	15	45	2	2	1	245	320	423	742	178	295	25	8	329	109	+2	+0	+0	-2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	111	99	23	4	0	4	10	28	1	1	0	242	317	416	733	174	292	25	9	325	109	+1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	80	72	17	3	0	3	7	21	1	0	0	232	306	394	700	162	284	26	9	311	97	-0	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.6
2028	37	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	80	72	17	3	0	3	7	21	1	0	0	229	303	388	691	159	281	26	9	308	97	-0	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1759	1531	376	77	3	40	181	414	24	22	9	246	334	378	712	133	308	24	10	319	100	+5	+1	-23	-22	+38	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	139	28	1	15	67	153	9	8	3	246	334	378	712	133	307	24	10	319	100	+2	+0	-8	-8	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5001	4464	1150	239	18	100	419	1126	71	91	30	258	331	386	717	129	320	23	8	317	100	+6	+1	-23	-23	+41	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	149	31	2	13	54	146	9	12	4	257	329	384	714	128	319	22	8	317	100	+2	+0	-8	-8	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 32 PAwOBA .265 → .199 (−66)K% 25.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.940	20.81%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .265 → .199; ISO .103 → .066; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 182 PAwOBA .413 → .325 (−88)K% 23.1% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×0.962	10.34%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.48%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.028	×0.962	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.179	×0.830	×1.028	×0.962	9.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.028	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷0.939	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .413 → .325; ISO .218 → .160; BABIP .386 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 80 PAwOBA .442 → .345 (−97)K% 16.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.25%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	19.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.83%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.14%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.050	×0.972	19.03%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.050	×0.972	8.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.050	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.43%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.73%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .442 → .345; ISO .303 → .211; BABIP .327 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 338 PAwOBA .373 → .290 (−83)K% 25.7% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.74%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	32.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.58%	÷1.151	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.10%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.28%
Singles /BIP	28.37%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	24.44%
Doubles /BIP	9.77%	÷1.082	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	7.06%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷0.957	×0.840	—	×0.992	4.05%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .373 → .290; ISO .182 → .145; BABIP .402 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 208 PAwOBA .333 → .277 (−56)K% 22.1% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.12%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	25.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.17%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.74%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.81%
Singles /BIP	27.54%	÷1.052	×0.930	×0.992	×1.003	24.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.992	×1.003	5.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.992	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×1.003	2.52%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .333 → .277; ISO .120 → .098; BABIP .356 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 174 PAwOBA .379 → .339 (−41)K% 18.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.39%	÷0.950	×1.200	—	—	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.77%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.68%
HBP% /PA	2.30%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.20%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷1.021	×0.930	×1.011	×1.018	25.44%
Doubles /BIP	10.17%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.011	×1.018	9.25%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.961	×0.970	×1.011	×1.018	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷0.903	×0.840	—	×1.018	1.61%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .379 → .339; ISO .147 → .139; BABIP .390 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 230 PAwOBA .338 → .316 (−22)K% 13.0% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.04%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.96%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.08%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.42%
Singles /BIP	29.61%	÷0.991	×0.930	×1.026	×1.033	29.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.59%	÷1.059	×0.830	×1.026	×1.033	4.64%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.026	×1.033	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.12%	÷0.996	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.97%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .338 → .316; ISO .086 → .077; BABIP .356 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 525 PAwOBA .335 → .321 (−14)K% 13.9% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.90%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.48%	÷1.139	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.65%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.69%
Singles /BIP	22.02%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	22.29%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷0.903	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	7.51%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	2.39%	÷0.878	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.39%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .335 → .321; ISO .131 → .137; BABIP .302 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	2.7	1,789	42	22	244	330	379	-20	-19	3.4	4.2
/162	664	16	8	-7.5	-7.1	1.2	pk7: 5
#1Dave Clark'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 2,211 PA	3.3	2,211	62	19	256*	331*	416*	-30	-7	3.4	4.1
/162	664	19	6	-9.0	-2.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Daric Bartonlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	30	13	247	356	365	-37	-10	3.0	3.4
/162	664	10	4	-11.9	-3.1	0.9	pk7: 4
#3Mark Sweeney'95-'08 * career totals — 13 seasons, 2,131 PA	3.2	2,131	42	16	243*	334*	377*	-31	-5	1.5	2.7
/162	664	13	5	-9.6	-1.7	0.5	pk7: 4
#4Danny Heep'79-'91 * career totals — 11 seasons, 2,222 PA	3.3	2,222	30	12	254*	330*	387*	-27	-7	1.7	2.6
/162	664	9	4	-8.0	-2.1	0.5	pk7: 3
#5Nolan Reimoldlast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,556 PA	2.3	1,556	56	18	246	323	422	-17	-27	1.6	1.9
/162	664	24	8	-7.1	-11.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rob Refsnyder (OGILVIE)	36	50	55	45	60	242/317/419	177	295	4	1	25%	9%	109	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕José Hernández 2005 · MLB	36	51→60	53→55	44→45	45	256/318/429	173	335	22	5	29%	8%	110	+2.1	237/293/376	139	296	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	230/285/340	110	295	11	6	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Eric Karros 2004 · MLB	36	53→55	49→55	44→40	51	267/322/414	147	288	17	4	14%	7%	108	+1.9	246/302/393	147	270	16	7	15%	7%	96	+1.0	191/234/305	114	207	11	5	14%	5%	50	-0.4
✕Luis Alfonso Garcia 2014 · AAA	35	47→54	53→55	46→40	50	246/313/415	169	282	22	4	22%	9%	105	+1.7	230/292/377	147	263	20	3	21%	8%	88	+0.5	221/286/354	132	253	18	1	20%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Mario Valenzuela 2013 · AAA	36	52→57	52→55	40	45	264/314/427	163	299	21	4	20%	6%	108	+1.9	238/285/352	114	308	13	5	26%	6%	80	-0.2	225/269/314	89	292	11	2	26%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Ryan Raburn 2017 · MLB	36	46→56	52→60	47→50	50	233/313/403	170	295	19	3	27%	10%	103	+1.5	237/310/396	159	330	18	6	31%	9%	99	+1.3	231/299/376	145	344	16	3	35%	8%	92	+0.2
✕Robinson Chirinos 2021 · MLB	37	44→46	53→60	43→50	50	226/326/403	178	292	21	4	29%	10%	108	+1.9	217/302/373	156	293	18	5	30%	9%	92	+0.7	192/283/338	146	265	17	2	32%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Mark Reynolds 2019 · MLB	35	49→56	56→65	43→50	50	251/329/439	189	316	25	3	28%	10%	116	+2.5	226/314/391	165	306	20	8	30%	11%	100	+1.3	159/283/285	126	237	13	7	35%	14%	69	-0.3
✕Chris Richard 2010 · MLB	36	41→51	54→55	48→50	45	221/288/401	181	263	23	6	26%	7%	93	+0.8	227/289/390	163	277	18	5	25%	7%	91	+0.6	225/285/384	160	273	17	0	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Olmedo Saenz 2007 · MLB	36	51	60	42→30	48	270/335/494	224	301	28	3	21%	7%	132	+3.6	244/324/428	184	279	22	6	21%	9%	112	+2.2	184/295/333	149	200	18	0	19%	12%	82	+0.0
✕Ruben Mateo 2015 · AAA	37	48→50	55→60	43→45	43	252/312/433	180	280	24	3	20%	5%	109	+2.0	221/285/361	140	262	18	6	23%	5%	83	+0.1	149/217/253	104	165	17	0	23%	4%	32	-1.2
✕John Lindsey 2013 · AAA	36	45→51	57→60	43→30	41	241/302/437	196	290	25	2	27%	6%	107	+1.8	224/299/413	189	280	25	3	29%	7%	101	+1.4	204/288/394	190	253	27	0	30%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Doug Mirabelli 2007 · MLB	36	44	53→50	48→30	46	228/304/398	170	292	21	5	29%	8%	99	+1.2	228/300/390	162	298	20	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	200/276/357	157	261	24	0	32%	9%	79	-0.0
✕Randy Ruiz 2014 · AAA	36	49→54	55→60	43→40	39	254/297/430	176	321	24	5	29%	5%	103	+1.5	232/273/358	126	306	15	7	28%	5%	76	-0.4	211/244/290	79	283	8	4	28%	4%	48	-0.6
✕Eduardo Perez 2005 · MLB	35	49	55→60	47→50	53	255/332/443	189	284	23	8	20%	9%	118	+2.7	255/339/459	204	270	26	5	17%	10%	124	+3.1	250/340/466	216	253	30	0	16%	10%	128	+1.1
✕Rod Barajas 2012 · MLB	36	43→47	56→60	46→30	43	232/274/418	186	243	26	2	18%	4%	92	+0.7	225/287/386	161	250	21	4	20%	7%	89	+0.5	202/270/342	140	220	20	0	19%	7%	74	-0.3
✕John Mabry 2006 · MLB	35	48	53→60	43→30	48	249/308/422	173	291	21	3	22%	8%	105	+1.7	224/296/369	145	275	16	5	24%	9%	88	+0.5	202/283/319	117	252	13	0	24%	10%	73	-0.3

Rob Refsnyder

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps