Rob Refsnyder — OGILVIE

Rob RefsnyderRF Seattle Mariners

Age 35 R/R 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 7.279 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.2 · 2026

wRC+†vL 13799vR 69

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .349 / .440

PA240

HR9

K%24

BB%11

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

55→55

SPD

45→45

EYE

56↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 7.279 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$5M
Totals		$6M		$0.8M	-$5M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$2025.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$2.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	182	169	34	6	0	3	9	33	3	11	1	.201	.254	.290	.544	.089	.231	18	5	.244	45	-11	+2	+0	-2	+5	-0.6
2013	22	A+	2 teams	573	491	132	32	3	6	64	112	13	23	6	.269	.368	.383	.751	.114	.335	20	11	.330	111	+7	+2	+0	-6	+16	2.0
2014	23	AAA	2 teams	577	531	152	34	4	12	39	131	4	9	9	.286	.340	.433	.773	.147	.359	23	7	.332	112	+8	-2	+0	-6	+16	1.7
2015	24	AAA	2 teams	572	518	134	30	2	10	38	95	9	14	2	.259	.320	.382	.703	.124	.296	17	7	.307	93	-4	+2	-1	+2	+16	1.5
2016	25	AAA	2 teams	405	368	101	17	1	2	29	66	2	8	1	.274	.331	.342	.673	.068	.324	16	7	.295	84	-7	+1	-3	-7	+11	-0.5
2017	26	AAA	3 teams	302	273	65	14	3	2	21	64	6	7	2	.238	.307	.333	.640	.095	.301	21	7	.288	79	-7	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.1
2018	27	AAA	2 teams	311	276	60	11	0	6	30	80	4	0	2	.217	.303	.322	.626	.105	.283	26	10	.276	69	-11	-1	-0	-3	+9	-0.7
2019	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	338	315	77	15	1	9	18	107	1	0	2	.244	.287	.384	.672	.140	.335	32	5	.294	83	-6	-1	+0	-4	+10	-0.1
2020	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	.200	.273	.233	.506	.033	.300	32	6	.229	33	-3	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	2 teams	237	209	53	12	0	6	25	56	1	1	0	.254	.336	.397	.733	.144	.315	24	11	.322	105	+1	+0	+1	+1	+7	1.1
2022	31	AAA	2 teams	359	309	87	22	0	11	34	96	11	5	1	.282	.373	.460	.832	.178	.367	27	9	.363	136	+15	+1	-3	-4	+10	1.9
2023	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	243	203	49	8	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	.241	.361	.305	.666	.064	.308	19	14	.306	93	-2	+1	-2	-3	+7	0.1
2024	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	307	273	76	14	1	12	28	78	5	2	2	.278	.356	.469	.825	.190	.348	25	9	.349	126	+9	-0	-4	-3	+9	1.0
2025	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	209	182	49	12	0	9	24	54	1	3	0	.269	.357	.484	.841	.214	.331	26	11	.354	129	+7	+1	-2	-2	+6	1.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	35	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	28	2	0	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	.071	.161	.179	.340	.107	.048	22	9	.157	-22	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.4
ROS	35	MLB	SEA	208	181	46	9	1	7	22	49	3	3	1	.254	.345	.431	.776	.177	.300	24	11	.340	118	+4	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.6
TOT	35	MLB	SEA	240	209	48	9	1	8	25	56	3	3	1	.230	.321	.397	.718	.167	.272	23	10	.315	99	-0	+0	-2	-3	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	36	MLB	SEA	174	152	38	7	1	6	18	40	2	2	1	.250	.337	.428	.765	.178	.289	23	10	.330	110	+2	+0	-8	-2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5031	4480	1159	244	18	102	434	1119	71	95	32	.259	.334	.390	.723	.131	.320	22	9	.316	100	+1	+6	-27	-41	+143	8.3
/ 162G	—			650	579	150	32	2	13	56	145	9	12	4	.259	.334	.389	.722	.130	.322	22	9	.316	100	+0	+1	-3	-5	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	182	162	39	8	0	4	16	25	3	11	1	.241	.320	.364	.685	.123	.261	14	9	.310	95	-1	+2	—	—	+5	0.6
2013	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	511	413	117	28	2	6	78	70	11	16	6	.283	.407	.404	.811	.121	.326	14	15	.367	139	+22	+1	—	—	+14	3.9
2013	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	62	54	20	4	1	0	6	12	2	7	0	.370	.452	.481	.933	.111	.476	19	10	.419	179	+6	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2014	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	333	287	86	19	1	8	41	67	2	4	4	.300	.391	.456	.847	.157	.364	20	12	.376	146	+17	-1	—	—	+9	2.6
2014	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	244	228	78	19	5	6	14	38	2	5	5	.342	.385	.548	.933	.206	.391	16	6	.408	171	+19	-1	—	—	+7	2.6
2015	24	MLB	New York Yankees	47	43	13	3	0	2	3	7	0	2	0	.302	.340	.512	.852	.209	.324	15	6	.369	141	+2	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.5
2015	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	525	450	122	28	2	9	56	73	9	12	2	.271	.361	.402	.763	.131	.302	14	11	.340	119	+11	+2	—	—	+15	2.8
2016	25	MLB	New York Yankees	175	152	38	9	0	0	18	30	1	2	1	.250	.331	.309	.641	.059	.304	17	10	.292	82	-4	+0	-3	-7	+5	-0.9
2016	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	230	209	66	10	1	2	17	30	1	6	0	.316	.370	.402	.772	.086	.356	13	7	.344	122	+6	+1	—	—	+7	1.4
2017	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	98	88	15	2	1	0	8	17	1	4	1	.170	.245	.216	.461	.045	.211	17	8	.218	25	-8	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.7
2017	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	174	150	48	12	2	2	18	32	4	2	1	.320	.407	.467	.874	.147	.390	18	10	.387	154	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.6
2017	26	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	30	27	10	3	0	0	2	4	1	1	0	.370	.433	.481	.915	.111	.435	13	7	.411	172	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	103	84	14	3	0	2	18	26	0	0	2	.167	.311	.274	.584	.107	.214	25	17	.279	72	-3	-1	-0	-3	+3	-0.5
2018	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	208	184	52	10	0	4	18	46	4	0	0	.283	.357	.402	.760	.120	.356	22	9	.342	120	+5	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2019	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	338	302	94	21	2	10	31	87	1	0	2	.311	.377	.493	.871	.182	.402	26	9	.380	149	+19	-1	—	—	+10	2.8
2020	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	34	30	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	.200	.273	.233	.506	.033	.300	32	6	.234	37	-2	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	157	139	34	7	0	2	17	40	0	1	0	.245	.327	.338	.665	.094	.327	25	11	.303	90	-2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.5
2021	30	AAA	St. Paul Saints	80	66	21	5	0	5	12	13	1	0	0	.318	.430	.621	1.052	.303	.327	16	15	.449	201	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2022	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	177	153	47	11	0	6	15	46	6	1	1	.307	.391	.497	.888	.190	.394	26	8	.388	155	+11	-0	-3	-4	+5	0.9
2022	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	182	147	45	14	0	6	28	42	5	4	0	.306	.433	.524	.957	.218	.386	23	15	.419	179	+16	+1	—	—	+5	2.3
2023	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	243	202	50	9	1	1	33	47	5	7	2	.248	.365	.317	.682	.069	.316	19	14	.318	101	+0	+1	-2	-3	+7	0.3
2024	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	307	272	77	16	1	11	28	78	5	2	2	.283	.359	.471	.830	.188	.359	25	9	.367	139	+13	-0	-4	-3	+9	1.5
2025	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	209	182	49	12	0	9	24	54	1	3	0	.269	.357	.484	.841	.214	.331	26	11	.368	140	+9	+1	-2	-2	+6	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1550	1345	343	73	3	33	166	356	20	22	9	.255	.344	.387	.732	.132	.320	23	11	.329	110	+17	+1	-16	-19	+44	2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rob Refsnyder (OGILVIE)	35	50	55	45	60	.247/.336/.422	.175	.292	8	4	22%	11%	118	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Salmon 2004 · MLB	35	53→56	53→60	46→45	62	.265/.370/.454	.188	.297	20	6	18%	13%	139	+4.4	.262/.346/.420	.158	.300	17	5	18%	10%	121	+3.2	.256/.336/.386	.129	.301	15	1	19%	10%	104	+0.8
✕Ryan Raburn 2016 · MLB	35	49→55	54→60	46→50	51	.249/.326/.434	.185	.295	21	3	23%	9%	116	+2.8	.237/.317/.405	.168	.319	19	4	29%	10%	105	+2.1	.223/.306/.384	.161	.317	18	1	33%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Eduardo Perez 2005 · MLB	35	48	56→60	46→50	54	.253/.332/.447	.194	.280	24	8	20%	10%	122	+3.3	.257/.343/.461	.204	.274	26	5	17%	10%	130	+3.8	.251/.345/.469	.217	.255	30	0	16%	11%	129	+1.2
✕Jonny Gomes 2015 · MLB	34	49→52	52→60	46→50	54	.245/.343/.406	.161	.313	20	4	27%	11%	116	+2.8	.232/.324/.372	.140	.312	17	5	28%	11%	99	+1.7	.208/.311/.339	.131	.287	17	2	31%	12%	79	+0.1
●Hunter Pence 2018 · MLB	35	53→63	52→60	43→50	50	.269/.328/.432	.164	.309	20	4	20%	8%	116	+2.8	.256/.308/.409	.153	.308	19	8	22%	7%	102	+1.8	.261/.309/.419	.158	.318	20	9	24%	6%	101	+1.1
●Michael Cuddyer 2014 · MLB	35	57→65	54→60	50	51	.287/.347/.475	.188	.324	21	11	18%	8%	135	+4.2	.289/.342/.467	.178	.334	20	8	19%	7%	131	+3.9	.292/.340/.458	.166	.337	18	5	19%	6%	126	+1.9
●Shin-Soo Choo 2018 · MLB	36	50→60	52→55	47→55	57	.250/.349/.413	.163	.296	20	10	22%	12%	121	+3.2	.256/.359/.421	.165	.317	20	11	24%	12%	127	+3.6	.257/.366/.426	.169	.323	20	11	24%	13%	123	+2.7
✕Josh Willingham 2014 · MLB	35	45→53	60	45	56	.239/.347/.457	.218	.282	28	4	25%	12%	131	+3.9	.227/.342/.403	.176	.289	21	5	27%	13%	116	+2.8	.207/.336/.371	.163	.268	21	3	28%	14%	98	+1.0
✕Mike Napoli 2017 · MLB	35	44→54	56→65	44→50	56	.229/.331/.417	.187	.285	25	5	28%	13%	114	+2.7	.210/.302/.419	.209	.263	30	5	32%	11%	103	+1.9	.184/.278/.415	.232	.210	36	1	34%	10%	82	+0.4
✕Dexter Fowler 2020 · MLB	34	46→56	54→55	46→55	57	.236/.336/.420	.184	.279	21	9	23%	12%	117	+2.9	.243/.329/.405	.162	.303	20	10	25%	11%	110	+2.4	.239/.322/.399	.159	.302	24	6	28%	10%	102	+0.3
●Darin Ruf 2021 · MLB	35	51→53	55→60	50→40	54	.260/.342/.453	.193	.308	22	10	23%	11%	128	+3.6	.247/.347/.442	.195	.314	24	6	27%	13%	127	+3.6	.227/.336/.401	.174	.292	22	3	28%	13%	105	+0.9
✕Mark Reynolds 2019 · MLB	35	50→57	56→65	42→50	51	.255/.334/.441	.186	.322	25	3	28%	10%	121	+3.2	.227/.316/.394	.167	.308	20	7	31%	11%	102	+1.9	.160/.284/.285	.126	.239	13	7	35%	14%	59	-0.3
●Jayson Werth 2014 · MLB	35	55→60	55→60	52→55	57	.280/.366/.468	.188	.324	22	13	20%	11%	141	+4.6	.268/.358/.444	.176	.312	20	8	20%	12%	131	+3.9	.248/.345/.410	.162	.294	18	5	21%	12%	112	+2.4
✕David Dellucci 2008 · MLB	34	49→46	58→65	46→50	56	.257/.346/.472	.215	.295	25	6	22%	11%	134	+4.1	.241/.311/.398	.157	.290	16	7	22%	7%	100	+1.7	.234/.304/.380	.146	.285	14	6	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Matt Joyce 2020 · MLB	35	49→56	53→60	42→50	61	.250/.348/.425	.175	.287	20	4	20%	13%	123	+3.3	.243/.346/.376	.133	.306	15	5	23%	13%	109	+2.4	.207/.329/.303	.096	.272	12	2	25%	15%	83	+0.1
✕Olmedo Saenz 2006 · MLB	35	50	58→60	42→30	50	.262/.328/.470	.208	.288	27	3	20%	8%	126	+3.5	.258/.333/.467	.209	.292	25	4	21%	8%	128	+3.6	.249/.336/.468	.219	.281	27	0	21%	9%	126	+1.0
●Andrew McCutchen 2022 · MLB	35	44→54	56→60	49→55	60	.236/.337/.432	.196	.267	24	8	22%	13%	121	+3.2	.236/.332/.398	.162	.281	20	9	22%	12%	110	+2.4	.237/.343/.383	.146	.289	18	6	23%	13%	104	+1.7
✕Adam LaRoche 2015 · MLB	35	46→55	58→65	47→40	59	.248/.340/.450	.203	.273	26	4	20%	12%	126	+3.5	.228/.317/.386	.158	.280	19	4	24%	11%	100	+1.7	.206/.293/.334	.128	.270	14	0	27%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Rickie Weeks Jr. 2017 · MLB	34	48→58	52→55	48→55	49	.243/.327/.416	.173	.303	19	10	26%	9%	111	+2.5	.235/.322/.396	.161	.340	18	10	33%	10%	105	+2.1	.206/.313/.340	.133	.379	14	5	43%	11%	85	+0.1
✕Seth Smith 2017 · MLB	34	50→56	52→60	46→50	57	.253/.343/.430	.177	.292	18	2	20%	11%	122	+3.3	.254/.337/.427	.173	.299	20	5	21%	10%	119	+3.1	.256/.340/.425	.169	.303	19	3	21%	10%	111	+1.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)