Jay Groome prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jay Groome P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 262 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.0%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	2	2	4	16	8	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.25	-1.12	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	2	2	4	16	8	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2.25	-0.90	—
2017	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	11	11	44	199	58	25	6	100%	4.0	21.6%	14.8%	6.7%	2.6%	6.70	4.56	—
2017	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	11	11	44	199	58	25	6	100%	4.0	29.1%	12.6%	16.6%	3.0%	6.70	3.93	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	2	2	2	8	3	0	0	100%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	2	2	2	8	3	0	0	100%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	97	415	134	36	12	100%	4.6	25.1%	9.9%	15.2%	4.1%	4.81	4.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	97	415	134	36	12	100%	4.6	32.3%	8.7%	23.6%	2.9%	4.81	3.06	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	144	615	140	64	17	93%	5.0	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.1%	3.44	4.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	144	615	140	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	2.8%	3.44	4.02	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	30	30	135	669	137	112	25	100%	4.5	17.6%	15.1%	2.5%	3.9%	8.55	5.67	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	30	30	135	669	137	112	25	100%	4.5	17.6%	15.1%	2.5%	3.9%	8.55	5.67	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	30	30	135	669	137	112	25	100%	4.5	20.5%	16.7%	3.7%	3.7%	8.55	5.97	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	3	3	5	22	5	5	1	100%	1.7	22.7%	22.7%	0.0%	4.5%	3.60	6.55	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	3	3	5	22	5	5	1	100%	1.7	22.7%	22.7%	0.0%	4.5%	3.60	6.55	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	3	3	5	22	5	5	1	100%	1.7	22.7%	22.7%	0.0%	4.5%	3.60	6.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	3.2%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	90	380	73	49	12	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.9%	6.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.28	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	86	363	70	46	12	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	81	341	65	44	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	12.8%	6.2%	3.6%	5.36	5.45	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	38	160	31	21	5	100%	6.3	19.2%	12.9%	6.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.28	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	51	215	41	27	7	100%	6.4	19.2%	12.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	46	31	9	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.8%	6.2%	3.6%	5.36	5.45	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	146	616	118	79	21	100%	6.1	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.4%	5.29	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	108	29	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	3.4%	5.29	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		98	96	431	1944	398	246	68	98%	4.4	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	3.5%	5.65	4.89	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	901	185	114	32	98%	4.4	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	3.5%	5.65	4.89	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Groome (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.0%	13.3%	3.2%	—	5.35	19.1%	6.3%	257	+0.05	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	80
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	79
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	78
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	76
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	76
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	75
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	74
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	74
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	73
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	72
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	72
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	72
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	71
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP	4.56	15.4%	12.3%	2.2%	.363	3.60	21.2%	13.2%	140	-0.96	3.46	440	71
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	71
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	87	19.1%	12.9%	1.29	5.29
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ryan Bowen ('95)	1.6	82	14.6%	12.4%	0.97	5.30
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Kyle Davies ('15)	3.9	110	15.7%	10.5%	1.16	5.57