Carlos Cortes
RF Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAANYM | 321 | .246/.333/.456 | 16 | 3 | 65 | — | .199/.267/.344 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAOAK | 314 | .322/.418/.603 | 17 | 2 | 112 | — | .254/.328/.436 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBOAK | 99 | .309/.330/.543 | 4 | 0 | 130 | 0.2 | |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBOAK | 381 | .251/.320/.397 | 10 | 2 | 98 | 0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBOAK | 295 | .251/.320/.419 | 9 | 2 | 103 | 0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 31 | MLBOAK | 226 | .247/.314/.408 | 7 | 0 | 98 | -0.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 526 | 458 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 77 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 255 | 340 | 397 | 738 | 142 | 281 | 15 | 10 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 56 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 392 | 436 | 706 | 1.142 | 314 | 486 | 25 | 5 | 484 | 214 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 346 | 304 | 78 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 257 | 337 | 487 | 824 | 230 | 305 | 25 | 10 | 357 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 67 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 364 | 309 | 673 | 73 | 342 | 27 | 15 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 117 | 107 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 233 | 234 | 466 | 65 | 205 | 21 | 6 | 217 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 374 | 332 | 80 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 100 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 319 | 413 | 732 | 172 | 307 | 27 | 9 | 323 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 442 | 369 | 89 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 65 | 89 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 241 | 359 | 428 | 787 | 187 | 274 | 20 | 15 | 350 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 65 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 266 | 305 | 571 | 102 | 217 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 281 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 333 | 456 | 789 | 210 | 255 | 19 | 12 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | — | 99 | 94 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 309 | 330 | 543 | 872 | 234 | 347 | 20 | 3 | 372 | 130 | +4 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 314 | 267 | 86 | 24 | 0 | 17 | 41 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 322 | 418 | 603 | 1.021 | 281 | 333 | 15 | 13 | 439 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 320 | 397 | 717 | 146 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 319 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 480 | 437 | 115 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 322 | 428 | 750 | 165 | 293 | 17 | 7 | 330 | 110 | +5 | +0 | -0 | -9 | +10 | 0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 526 | 471 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 119 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 202 | 273 | 310 | 583 | 108 | 242 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 346 | 315 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 102 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 267 | 384 | 651 | 178 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 117 | 109 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 207 | 211 | 418 | 55 | 199 | 26 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 374 | 344 | 70 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 120 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 259 | 337 | 597 | 134 | 274 | 32 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 442 | 387 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 111 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 297 | 349 | 646 | 142 | 248 | 25 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 291 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 74 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 144 | 220 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 99 | 94 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 298 | 320 | 521 | 841 | 223 | 347 | 20 | 3 | 360 | 130 | +4 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 314 | 280 | 71 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 328 | 436 | 764 | 182 | 275 | 17 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 140 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 526 | 471 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 119 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 202 | 273 | 310 | 583 | 108 | 248 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 526 | 458 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 77 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 255 | 340 | 397 | 738 | 142 | 281 | 15 | 10 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 56 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 392 | 436 | 706 | 1.142 | 314 | 486 | 25 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 56 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 392 | 436 | 706 | 1.142 | 314 | 486 | 25 | 5 | 484 | 214 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 376 | 77 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 205 | 265 | 380 | 646 | 176 | 259 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 359 | 91 | 28 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 253 | 342 | 460 | 801 | 206 | 310 | 25 | 11 | 350 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 453 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 150 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 247 | 307 | 554 | 115 | 258 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 491 | 439 | 98 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 124 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 298 | 369 | 667 | 146 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 298 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 444 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 54 | 128 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 203 | 293 | 338 | 631 | 135 | 252 | 25 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 428 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 70 | 101 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 236 | 347 | 411 | 759 | 175 | 266 | 20 | 14 | 338 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 291 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 74 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 144 | 225 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 281 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 333 | 456 | 789 | 210 | 255 | 19 | 12 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 374 | 99 | 28 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 265 | 326 | 457 | 783 | 193 | 292 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 361 | 115 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 44 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 319 | 397 | 587 | 984 | 269 | 337 | 16 | 11 | 423 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 140 | 267 | 17 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB RAW | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 320 | 397 | 717 | 146 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 319 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 526 | 475 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 119 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 200 | 273 | 307 | 580 | 107 | 242 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 379 | 77 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 122 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 203 | 265 | 377 | 643 | 174 | 252 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 455 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 150 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 247 | 305 | 552 | 114 | 256 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 445 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 54 | 128 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 293 | 337 | 630 | 135 | 248 | 25 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 291 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 74 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 144 | 220 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 376 | 99 | 28 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 326 | 455 | 781 | 191 | 292 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 140 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 321 | 291 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 74 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 144 | 220 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 376 | 99 | 28 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 326 | 455 | 781 | 191 | 292 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 381 | 343 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 140 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 100% | 399 | 360 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 73 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 314 | 408 | 722 | 163 | 272 | 18 | 8 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +9 | 0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 100% | 295 | 266 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 320 | 419 | 739 | 167 | 282 | 18 | 8 | 327 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 82% | 276 | 250 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 308 | 397 | 706 | 157 | 269 | 18 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 82% | 226 | 204 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 314 | 408 | 722 | 161 | 278 | 19 | 8 | 320 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 706 | 641 | 166 | 35 | 4 | 21 | 52 | 125 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 259 | 320 | 424 | 745 | 165 | 289 | 18 | 7 | 327 | 78 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -11 | +15 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 153 | 32 | 4 | 19 | 48 | 115 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 259 | 322 | 424 | 746 | 164 | 290 | 18 | 7 | 327 | 78 | +5 | +0 | -2 | -10 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3679 | 3319 | 734 | 171 | 11 | 98 | 287 | 849 | 31 | 19 | 15 | 221 | 289 | 368 | 657 | 147 | 264 | 23 | 8 | 283 | 78 | +6 | -0 | -3 | -15 | +23 | 1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 150 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 220 | 288 | 365 | 653 | 145 | 263 | 23 | 8 | 283 | 78 | +4 | -0 | -2 | -9 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 314 PAwOBA .430 → .334 (−96)K% 14.6% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.65% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.74% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.36% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×0.992 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.86% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.992 | 8.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .430 → .334; ISO .281 → .193; BABIP .333 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 321 PAwOBA .340 → .265 (−75)K% 18.7% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.53% | ÷0.933 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 17.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .340 → .265; ISO .210 → .145; BABIP .255 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 442 PAwOBA .345 → .283 (−62)K% 20.1% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.14% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.21% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 16.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.86% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .345 → .283; ISO .187 → .145; BABIP .274 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 374 PAwOBA .318 → .263 (−55)K% 26.7% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.74% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.36% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷0.988 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.74% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.13% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .318 → .263; ISO .172 → .143; BABIP .307 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 117 PAwOBA .213 → .185 (−28)K% 20.5% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.98% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.66% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 15.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .213 → .185; ISO .065 → .051; BABIP .205 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 346 PAwOBA .352 → .279 (−73)K% 24.6% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.12% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.89% | ÷1.045 | ×0.940 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 14.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.87% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.39% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .352 → .279; ISO .230 → .183; BABIP .305 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 526 PAwOBA .323 → .261 (−62)K% 14.6% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.64% | ÷0.917 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.70% | ÷0.975 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.062 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.122 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.29% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 112, K 83, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .261; ISO .142 → .114; BABIP .281 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .