Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants | 5 | 5 | 19 | 78 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.7% | 16.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 1.89 | 3.80 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants | 5 | 5 | 19 | 78 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 1.89 | 2.78 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 25 | 25 | 119 | 521 | 112 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.7 | 15.9% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 4.70 | 4.42 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 25 | 25 | 119 | 521 | 112 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 4.70 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 18 | 17 | 74 | 325 | 80 | 43 | 7 | 94% | 4.1 | 19.0% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 5.08 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 18 | 17 | 74 | 325 | 80 | 43 | 7 | 94% | 4.1 | 24.6% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 5.59 | 3.91 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 0 | 43 | 195 | 67 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.59 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 0 | 43 | 195 | 67 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.4% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 0.5% | 4.15 | 1.90 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 61 | 41 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 19.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.91 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 61 | 41 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 19.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 5.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 1 | 21 | 96 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 5.57 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 1 | 21 | 96 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 5.57 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 196 | 47 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.27 | 3.33 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 196 | 47 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 1.0% | 2.27 | 3.00 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 132 | 0 | 139 | 586 | 141 | 84 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 14.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.1% | 14.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 141 | 596 | 144 | 85 | 17 | — | — | 24.2% | 14.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 123 | 0 | 129 | 546 | 126 | 77 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 114 | 0 | 120 | 505 | 112 | 71 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 0 | 143 | 622 | 135 | 97 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 15.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 4.98 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 872 | 189 | 136 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 15.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 194 | 48 | 372 | 1638 | 342 | 228 | 37 | 25% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 4.57 | 4.33 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 26 | 200 | 880 | 183 | 122 | 20 | 25% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 4.57 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Marte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 24.1% | 14.4% | 2.7% | — | 5.01 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 249 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 64 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 63 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 63 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 62 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 61 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 61 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 61 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 60 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.69 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .281 | 3.58 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.11 | 3.57 | 291 | 60 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 60 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 59 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 59 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 59 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 58 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 58 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.90 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 200 | 58 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 58 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.60 | 2.28 | 279 | 58 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 129 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 1.12 | 4.90 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |