Javier Assad — OGILVIE

Javier Assad P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.08

FIP4.38

K%16.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1015.0%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

CT+1.0 (13%)

SL (11%)

SI (42%)

CU (7%)

FB-1.1 (61%)

CH-1.2 (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	10	7	38	166	42	13	1	70%	3.8	17.2%	9.8%	7.4%	0.8%	2.87	3.35	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	10	7	38	166	42	13	1	70%	3.8	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	0.6%	2.87	2.25	—
2018	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	21	106	473	89	31	6	91%	4.6	13.9%	7.7%	6.2%	1.9%	4.40	3.93	—
2018	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	23	21	106	473	89	31	6	91%	4.6	18.8%	6.6%	12.3%	1.3%	4.40	3.03	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	116	481	91	41	11	100%	5.3	14.6%	9.8%	4.8%	3.0%	3.87	4.75	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	116	481	91	41	11	100%	5.3	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.3%	3.87	3.82	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	21	20	93	419	74	32	12	95%	4.4	14.3%	8.4%	5.9%	3.3%	5.32	4.75	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	21	20	93	419	74	32	12	95%	4.4	17.7%	7.6%	10.0%	2.9%	5.32	4.22	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	29	146	614	141	55	14	91%	4.6	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	2.6%	2.77	4.02	+1.5
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	29	146	614	141	55	14	91%	4.6	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	2.3%	2.77	3.55	+2.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	124	513	109	47	13	39%	3.4	20.8%	9.0%	11.7%	2.6%	3.12	3.94	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	124	513	109	47	13	39%	3.4	20.8%	9.0%	11.7%	2.6%	3.12	3.94	+0.9
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	14	124	513	109	47	13	39%	3.4	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	2.5%	3.12	3.84	+1.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	147	638	124	63	20	100%	5.1	19.4%	9.9%	9.6%	3.3%	3.73	4.50	+0.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	147	638	124	63	20	100%	5.1	19.4%	9.9%	9.6%	3.3%	3.73	4.50	+0.7
2024	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	29	29	147	638	124	63	20	100%	5.1	19.4%	9.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.73	4.47	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	55	230	44	19	3	92%	4.3	16.1%	8.3%	7.8%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	55	230	44	19	3	92%	4.3	16.1%	8.3%	7.8%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+0.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	12	55	230	44	19	3	92%	4.3	19.1%	8.3%	10.9%	1.3%	3.25	3.24	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			102	65	420	1762	329	160	55	64%	4.1	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	3.1%	3.45	4.38	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	31	18	114	472	79	36	18	58%	3.7	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	4.0%	4.11	4.88	+0.0
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	31	18	114	472	79	36	18	58%	3.7	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	4.0%	4.11	4.88	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CHC	7	7	25	116	21	11	3	100%	3.6	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	2.6%	6.12	4.19	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CHC	24	11	89	356	58	25	15	46%	3.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	4.2%	3.54	4.93	-0.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CHC	24	11	89	356	58	25	15	46%	3.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	4.2%	3.54	4.93	-0.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.2	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.0%	4.08	4.38	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.0	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.0%	4.08	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	122	506	85	39	19	—	—	16.7%	7.7%	9.1%	3.8%	4.10	4.85	+0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	97	410	85	39	19	—	—	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	4.6%	5.16	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	319	58	24	11	100%	5.8	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	298	52	24	11	100%	5.9	17.5%	8.0%	9.5%	3.8%	4.97	5.10	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	76	321	59	24	11	100%	5.8	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	52	24	11	100%	5.8	17.5%	8.0%	9.5%	3.8%	4.97	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	91	574	2413	445	211	79	71%	4.5	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.3%	3.82	4.44	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	32	200	840	155	73	28	71%	4.5	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.3%	3.82	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		217	172	940	4006	690	357	110	79%	4.3	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	2.8%	3.74	4.29	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	37	200	853	147	76	24	79%	4.3	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	2.8%	3.74	4.29	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Assad (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	17.7%	9.2%	2.8%	—	4.98	17.9%	10.1%	146	+0.30	—	—	—
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	67
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	66
Jordan Lyles R 2020 · 5.36 FIP	29	SP-	5.36	13.5%	8.6%	4.2%	.282	4.93	17.9%	11.2%	537	-0.43	3.44	1,080	65
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	63
Randall Delgado R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP	4.82	17.3%	7.5%	4.1%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	290	63
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	62
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	61
James Kaprielian R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	20.4%	10.7%	3.5%	.310	6.82	13.7%	1.1%	49	+2.14	2.80	446	60
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	426	59
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	59
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	59
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	59
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	59
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	59
Dereck Rodríguez R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	19.3%	7.9%	4.0%	.361	4.69	19.2%	10.1%	161	+0.01	3.87	886	59
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	58
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	58
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	76	17.8%	8.3%	1.30	4.69
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79