Javier Assad
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 105
ERA4.31
FIP4.60
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p1012.7%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
CT+1.0 (15%)
SL (11%)
SI (41%)
CU (7%)
FB-1.1 (60%)
CH-1.2 (7%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 10 | 7 | 38 | 166 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 70% | 3.8 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 0.8% | 2.87 | 3.35 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 10 | 7 | 38 | 166 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 70% | 3.8 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 2.87 | 2.25 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 21 | 106 | 473 | 89 | 31 | 6 | 91% | 4.6 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 4.09 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 21 | 106 | 473 | 89 | 31 | 6 | 91% | 4.6 | 18.8% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 1.3% | 4.40 | 3.03 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 116 | 481 | 91 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 4.83 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 116 | 481 | 91 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 3.82 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 21 | 20 | 93 | 419 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 95% | 4.4 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 4.67 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 21 | 20 | 93 | 419 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 95% | 4.4 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 29 | 146 | 614 | 141 | 55 | 14 | 91% | 4.6 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 2.77 | 3.99 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 29 | 146 | 614 | 141 | 55 | 14 | 91% | 4.6 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 2.77 | 3.55 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 14 | 124 | 513 | 109 | 47 | 13 | 39% | 3.4 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 3.86 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 14 | 124 | 513 | 109 | 47 | 13 | 39% | 3.4 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 3.84 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 147 | 638 | 124 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 3.73 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 147 | 638 | 124 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 3.73 | 4.47 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 12 | 55 | 230 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 92% | 4.3 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.25 | 3.55 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 12 | 55 | 230 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 92% | 4.3 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 3.25 | 3.24 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 51 | 24 | 14 | 65% | 3.9 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 4.77 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 118 | 496 | 79 | 39 | 20 | — | — | 16.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 4.61 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 102 | 432 | 79 | 39 | 20 | — | — | 18.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 5.33 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 57 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 298 | 51 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 57 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 93 | 579 | 2440 | 445 | 213 | 81 | 75% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 4.48 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 32 | 200 | 842 | 154 | 74 | 28 | 75% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 206 | 167 | 903 | 3857 | 665 | 348 | 105 | 81% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 4.28 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 147 | 77 | 23 | 81% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Assad (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 5.02 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 146 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 63 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 62 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 61 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 60 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 59 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 59 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 59 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 58 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 58 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 58 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 57 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 57 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 57 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 57 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 57 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 56 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 56 |
| Kenneth Sigman R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 267 | 56 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.02 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.16 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.14 | 4.34 | 300 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 76 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 1.30 | 4.71 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |