Javier Assad
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.09
FIP4.51
xFIP4.34
SIERA4.60
K%19.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%9.9%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4045
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p1014.7%
K%
p1013.8%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
CT+1.0 (20%)
SL (10%)
SI (44%)
CU (7%)
FB-1.1 (54%)
CH-1.2 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 10 | 7 | 38 | 166 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 0.8% | 2.87 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 23 | 21 | 106 | 473 | 89 | 31 | 6 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 116 | 481 | 91 | 41 | 11 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.87 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 21 | 20 | 93 | 419 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 29 | 146 | 614 | 141 | 55 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 2.77 | 4.03 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 36 | 14 | 124 | 513 | 109 | 47 | 13 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 3.90 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 147 | 638 | 124 | 63 | 20 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 3.73 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 13 | 12 | 55 | 230 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 13 | 10 | 4 | — | — | — | 8.47 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 87 | 383 | 65 | 38 | 12 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 55 | 27 | 9 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 15.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 14.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 158 | 843 | 3620 | 629 | 334 | 94 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 4.23 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 149 | 79 | 22 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 4.23 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Assad (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.78 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 196 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Sam LeCure R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 61 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 61 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 60 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 60 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 59 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 59 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 59 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 59 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 59 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 59 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 59 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.00 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 5.36 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 102 | +0.36 | 4.13 | 265 | 58 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 58 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | .258 | 5.04 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.44 | 4.13 | 300 | 58 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.34 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.58 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | +0.24 | 3.17 | 300 | 58 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.14 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 275 | 58 |
| David Fletcher R 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 57 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2023 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.11 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 107 | 57 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 57 |
| Scott Feldman R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.