Justin Hagenman
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.29
FIP4.38
K%21.6%
BB%4.8%
K-BB%16.8%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT+2.7 (32%)
SL+2.6 (20%)
SI (25%)
FB-2.2 (25%)
CH-2.8 (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.43 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 23.0% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 3.70 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 33 | 1 | 76 | 316 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 3% | 2.3 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 0.8% | 2.24 | 3.03 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 33 | 1 | 76 | 316 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 3% | 2.3 | 20.3% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 0.6% | 2.24 | 2.39 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 38 | 2 | 63 | 254 | 77 | 17 | 6 | 5% | 1.6 | 24.6% | 7.4% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 3.45 | 3.75 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 38 | 2 | 63 | 254 | 77 | 17 | 6 | 5% | 1.6 | 30.3% | 6.7% | 23.6% | 2.4% | 3.45 | 2.70 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 63 | 275 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 4% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.57 | 4.61 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 63 | 275 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 4% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 5.57 | 3.94 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 41 | 5 | 85 | 346 | 88 | 25 | 15 | 12% | 2.1 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 2.95 | 4.75 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 41 | 5 | 85 | 346 | 88 | 25 | 15 | 12% | 2.1 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 4.3% | 2.95 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 28 | 15 | 92 | 400 | 98 | 31 | 21 | 54% | 3.3 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 5.8% | 4.91 | 5.51 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 28 | 15 | 92 | 400 | 98 | 31 | 21 | 54% | 3.3 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 5.2% | 4.91 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 93 | 394 | 96 | 15 | 17 | 47% | 3.1 | 22.1% | 4.0% | 18.2% | 3.7% | 5.32 | 3.79 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 93 | 394 | 96 | 15 | 17 | 47% | 3.1 | 24.4% | 3.8% | 20.6% | 4.3% | 5.32 | 3.90 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 40 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 4.8% | 16.8% | 3.9% | 4.29 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 14 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.5% | 15.6% | 4.0% | 4.46 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 54 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 49 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 44 | 15 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.86 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 5.5% | 15.6% | 4.0% | 4.46 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.86 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 1 | 142 | 599 | 125 | 33 | 25 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 5.5% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.29 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 176 | 46 | 35 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 5.5% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 230 | 39 | 502 | 2111 | 439 | 148 | 79 | 17% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.30 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 16 | 200 | 841 | 175 | 59 | 32 | 17% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Hagenman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | — | 4.79 | 20.5% | 14.4% | 169 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 80 |
| Craig Stammen R 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 72 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 71 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 70 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.61 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 177 | 70 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | .275 | 3.60 | 23.0% | 19.0% | 246 | -0.52 | 2.64 | 517 | 69 |
| Rob Wooten R 2027 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | .299 | 3.74 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.52 | 3.19 | 191 | 69 |
| Matt Albers R 2029 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 68 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 68 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 68 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 26.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .280 | 3.18 | 26.6% | 19.8% | 132 | -0.46 | 2.56 | 364 | 67 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | .279 | 3.06 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 60 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 385 | 67 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 67 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.69 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 230 | 67 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 67 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.53 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .304 | 3.99 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 114 | -0.54 | 2.90 | 484 | 66 |
| Carlos Torres R 2029 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 66 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 20.7% | 5.8% | 1.57 | 4.57 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |