Justin Hagenman
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP3.53
SIERA3.17
K%22.4%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%16.2%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT+2.7 (32%)
SL+2.6 (20%)
SI (25%)
FB-2.2 (25%)
CH-2.8 (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 14 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 33 | 1 | 76 | 316 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 0.8% | 2.24 | 3.04 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 38 | 2 | 63 | 254 | 77 | 17 | 6 | 24.6% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 3.45 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 46 | 2 | 63 | 275 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.57 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 41 | 5 | 85 | 346 | 88 | 25 | 15 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.95 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 28 | 15 | 92 | 400 | 98 | 31 | 21 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.91 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 14 | 93 | 394 | 96 | 15 | 17 | 22.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.32 | 4.01 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 80 | 24 | 15 | 21.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 75 | 24 | 14 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 70 | 23 | 14 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 72 | 20 | 13 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.67 | 4.64 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 66 | 20 | 13 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 60 | 20 | 12 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 54 | 19 | 12 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.99 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 39 | 502 | 2111 | 439 | 148 | 81 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.33 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 16 | 200 | 841 | 175 | 59 | 32 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Hagenman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | — | 4.70 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 252 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 82 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Craig Stammen R 2029 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 81 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 80 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 77 |
| Rob Wooten R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 76 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.45 | 23.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .304 | 3.79 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 114 | -0.66 | 2.84 | 484 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 74 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 230 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.63 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | .280 | 4.47 | 19.3% | 13.7% | 139 | -0.16 | 3.86 | 231 | 72 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 72 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.267 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $9M | +$3M | ||