Justin Hagenman — OGILVIE

Justin Hagenman P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.32

FIP4.44

K%20.6%

BB%4.1%

K-BB%16.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT+2.7 (32%)

SL+2.6 (20%)

SI (25%)

FB-2.2 (25%)

CH-2.8 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	30	126	29	8	4	0%	2.1	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.43	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	30	126	29	8	4	0%	2.1	23.0%	6.3%	16.7%	3.2%	4.80	3.70	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	33	1	76	316	64	16	2	3%	2.3	15.0%	6.0%	9.0%	0.8%	2.24	3.03	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	33	1	76	316	64	16	2	3%	2.3	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	0.6%	2.24	2.39	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	38	2	63	254	77	17	6	5%	1.6	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	3.0%	3.45	3.62	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	38	2	63	254	77	17	6	5%	1.6	30.3%	6.7%	23.6%	2.4%	3.45	2.70	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	63	275	65	22	9	4%	1.4	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.7%	5.57	4.61	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	2	63	275	65	22	9	4%	1.4	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.3%	5.57	3.94	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	41	5	85	346	88	25	15	12%	2.1	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	4.7%	2.95	4.74	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	41	5	85	346	88	25	15	12%	2.1	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	4.7%	2.95	4.74	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	41	5	85	346	88	25	15	12%	2.1	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	4.3%	2.95	4.20	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	5.8%	4.91	5.45	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	5.8%	4.91	5.45	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	24.5%	7.8%	16.8%	5.2%	4.91	4.95	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	21.2%	3.5%	17.7%	4.1%	5.32	4.02	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	21.2%	3.5%	17.7%	4.1%	5.32	4.02	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	24.4%	3.8%	20.6%	4.3%	5.32	3.90	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	2	28	115	25	3	5	18%	2.5	21.7%	2.6%	19.1%	4.3%	4.55	3.97	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	6	4	15	67	12	4	3	67%	2.6	—	—	—	—	4.11	—	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	6	4	15	67	12	4	3	67%	2.6	—	—	—	—	4.11	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A RAW	NYM	1	1	2	11	3	1	0	100%	2.3	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	3.86	1.95	—
2026	29	AA RAW	NYM	1	1	3	14	2	0	1	100%	3.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	7.1%	3.00	5.81	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	NYM	2	1	6	26	5	2	1	50%	3.0	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.8%	4.50	4.56	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	NYM	2	1	4	16	2	1	1	50%	2.0	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	4.50	6.27	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	NYM	2	1	4	16	2	1	1	50%	2.0	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	4.50	6.27	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	6	25	5	1	1	100%	5.9	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	4.0%	4.32	4.44	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	NYM	1	1	6	25	5	1	1	100%	6.0	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	4.0%	4.32	4.44	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	21	92	17	5	4	—	—	18.6%	5.5%	13.2%	4.3%	4.17	1.23	+1.0
FULL	29	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	10	42	17	5	4	—	—	41.1%	12.1%	29.1%	9.6%	8.96	6.41	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	58	0	61	256	52	13	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.63	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	54	0	56	239	47	13	10	0%	1.0	19.7%	5.6%	14.1%	4.2%	4.70	4.84	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	55	0	58	245	50	12	10	0%	1.1	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.63	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	51	0	54	228	45	13	10	0%	1.1	19.7%	5.6%	14.1%	4.2%	4.70	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	3	145	609	124	29	25	3%	1.2	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	4.2%	4.58	4.27	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		164	5	200	842	171	40	35	3%	1.2	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	4.2%	4.58	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		236	43	517	2178	438	142	83	18%	2.2	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.14	4.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	17	200	842	170	55	32	18%	2.2	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.14	4.33	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Hagenman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	20.6%	4.1%	4.0%	—	4.73	20.0%	14.7%	117	+0.29	—	—	—
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	78
Craig Stammen R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	32	SU	4.04	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.27	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.77	1.82	407	74
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	70
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	69
Yusmeiro Petit R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	30	SU	4.11	18.7%	4.1%	3.8%	.275	3.61	23.0%	19.0%	246	-0.50	2.56	517	69
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	68
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	68
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	67
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	66
James Meeker R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	28	SW	4.06	17.5%	3.3%	3.7%	.291	4.47	17.5%	7.1%	51	+0.41	2.22	220	66
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	65
Alex Wimmers R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	23.2%	5.8%	3.2%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	230	64
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	64
Cory Mazzoni R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	18.1%	5.1%	3.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	0.78	101	64
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	64
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	64
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	64
Casey Fien R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	31	SU	3.42	16.0%	3.1%	2.3%	.272	5.55	18.5%	14.4%	73	+2.13	3.42	136	64
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	64
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.2%	4.9%	1.58	4.50
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79