Trent Thornton
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 32
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.10
FIP4.27
K%18.0%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
CH+1.2 (4%)
CT (24%)
SI (2%)
CU (19%)
FB (36%)
SL (18%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 136 | 546 | 124 | 21 | 19 | 88% | 5.7 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 3.52 | 3.76 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 136 | 546 | 124 | 21 | 19 | 88% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 3.8% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 3.52 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 131 | 574 | 101 | 22 | 14 | 92% | 5.3 | 15.3% | 4.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 3.89 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 131 | 574 | 101 | 22 | 14 | 92% | 5.3 | 17.6% | 3.8% | 13.8% | 2.4% | 5.21 | 3.45 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 24 | 22 | 124 | 516 | 122 | 29 | 13 | 92% | 5.2 | 20.8% | 5.9% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 3.78 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 24 | 22 | 124 | 516 | 122 | 29 | 13 | 92% | 5.2 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 18.0% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.20 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 29 | 154 | 677 | 149 | 61 | 24 | 91% | 4.8 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 29 | 154 | 677 | 149 | 61 | 24 | 91% | 4.8 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.38 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 11.12 | 2.72 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 11.12 | 2.57 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 59 | 256 | 60 | 17 | 12 | 6% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 5.6% | 3.94 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 59 | 256 | 60 | 17 | 12 | 6% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 16.8% | 4.7% | 3.94 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 74 | 311 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 74 | 311 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 60 | 260 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 2.98 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 60 | 260 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 2.98 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 71 | 0 | 72 | 294 | 77 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 6.1% | 20.1% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 71 | 0 | 72 | 294 | 77 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 6.1% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 3.61 | 3.16 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.60 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 1 | 35 | 135 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 3% | 1.2 | 11.8% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.60 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 55 | 221 | 33 | 18 | 9 | — | — | 15.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.15 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 49 | 209 | 33 | 18 | 9 | — | — | 16.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.51 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.25 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 397 | 36 | 574 | 2432 | 498 | 189 | 89 | 9% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 13 | 200 | 847 | 174 | 66 | 31 | 9% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 393 | 103 | 897 | 3792 | 750 | 255 | 123 | 26% | 2.3 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +14.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 23 | 200 | 845 | 167 | 57 | 27 | 26% | 2.3 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trent Thornton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 21.7% | 6.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.12 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 124 | +0.89 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 70 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 68 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 67 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 66 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 66 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 365 | 65 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 65 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 65 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 63 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 63 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 63 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 62 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 62 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.45 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 135 | 62 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 62 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.39 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |