Trent Thornton — OGILVIE

Trent Thornton P Chicago Cubs

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.01

FIP4.17

K%18.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5560

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

CH+1.2 (4%)

CT (24%)

SI (2%)

CU (19%)

FB (36%)

SL (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	136	546	124	21	19	88%	5.7	17.7%	4.4%	13.4%	3.5%	3.52	4.07	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	136	546	124	21	19	88%	5.7	22.7%	3.8%	18.9%	3.5%	3.52	3.56	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	131	574	101	22	14	92%	5.3	15.3%	4.0%	11.3%	2.8%	5.21	3.85	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	131	574	101	22	14	92%	5.3	17.6%	3.8%	13.8%	2.4%	5.21	3.45	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	24	22	124	516	122	29	13	92%	5.2	20.8%	5.9%	14.9%	2.9%	4.42	3.69	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	24	22	124	516	122	29	13	92%	5.2	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.5%	4.42	3.20	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	29	154	677	149	61	24	91%	4.8	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.33	+1.0
2019	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	29	154	677	149	61	24	91%	4.8	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.38	+0.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	3	3	6	33	6	3	0	100%	1.9	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	11.12	2.72	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	3	3	6	33	6	3	0	100%	1.9	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	11.12	2.57	+0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	59	256	60	17	12	6%	1.3	24.1%	6.9%	17.1%	5.6%	3.94	5.00	-0.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	59	256	60	17	12	6%	1.3	23.4%	6.6%	16.8%	4.7%	3.94	4.57	-0.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	74	311	67	29	8	0%	1.4	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	2.6%	3.65	4.02	+0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	74	311	67	29	8	0%	1.4	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.6%	3.65	3.87	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	60	260	54	24	9	2%	1.2	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.4%	2.98	4.47	+0.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	60	260	54	24	9	2%	1.2	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.4%	2.98	4.47	+0.1
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	60	260	54	24	9	2%	1.2	20.8%	9.2%	11.5%	3.5%	2.98	4.44	+0.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	71	0	72	294	77	18	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	2.8%	3.61	3.20	+1.2
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	71	0	72	294	77	18	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	2.8%	3.61	3.20	+1.2
2024	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	71	0	72	294	77	18	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.61	3.16	+1.2
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	45	190	35	12	7	0%	1.3	17.8%	6.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.32	+0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	45	190	35	12	7	0%	1.3	17.8%	6.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.32	+0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	45	190	35	12	7	0%	1.3	18.4%	6.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.60	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			283	36	449	1910	410	147	70	13%	1.6	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	3.7%	4.27	4.28	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	52	1	54	221	36	18	10	2%	1.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	4.2%	3.33	5.06	-0.3
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	52	1	54	221	36	18	10	2%	1.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	4.2%	3.33	5.06	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	CHC	4	1	6	25	5	3	2	25%	1.4	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.18	7.32	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	CHC	48	0	48	196	31	15	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	4.1%	3.35	4.97	-0.2
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	CHC	48	0	48	196	31	15	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.2%	4.1%	3.35	4.97	-0.2
ROS	32	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.01	4.17	—
ROS	32	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.01	4.17	—
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	54	221	36	18	10	—	—	16.3%	8.1%	8.1%	4.5%	3.33	5.06	-0.3
FULL	32	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	48	204	36	18	10	—	—	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.9%	3.72	5.42	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CHC	43	0	45	191	35	14	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	3.6%	4.70	4.87	-0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	174	31	14	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	4.0%	4.99	5.18	-0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	CHC	43	0	45	190	35	14	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	3.6%	4.70	4.87	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	39	0	41	173	30	14	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	4.0%	4.99	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		365	36	536	2275	476	175	84	10%	1.5	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	3.7%	4.36	4.33	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		136	13	200	849	178	65	31	10%	1.5	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	3.7%	4.36	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		416	103	916	3878	767	259	129	25%	2.2	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.20	4.11	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	22	200	846	167	56	28	25%	2.2	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.20	4.11	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	21.7%	6.7%	3.1%	—	5.02	18.1%	10.3%	86	+0.82	—	—	—
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	71
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Tommy Hunter R 2018 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.78	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.52	2.78	316	69
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	67
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	66
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	66
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	66
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	66
Brad Brach R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	32	SU	3.44	20.8%	9.0%	1.7%	.338	4.06	24.4%	11.0%	97	+0.62	2.69	410	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	65
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	65
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	65
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	65
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	65
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	119	64
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	64
Alex Wilson R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SU	5.06	19.4%	6.0%	5.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	326	64
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	19.3%	7.4%	1.38	4.56
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63