Trent Thornton
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.3
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA3.98
FIP4.23
xFIP4.76
SIERA4.30
K%21.9%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%14.6%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p2017.8%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
CH+1.2 (4%)
CT (24%)
SI (2%)
CU (19%)
FB (36%)
SL (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 24 | 21 | 136 | 546 | 124 | 21 | 19 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.52 | 4.01 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 25 | 23 | 131 | 574 | 101 | 22 | 14 | 15.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 3.85 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 24 | 22 | 124 | 516 | 122 | 29 | 13 | 20.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 3.67 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 29 | 154 | 677 | 149 | 61 | 24 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.12 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 47 | 3 | 59 | 256 | 60 | 17 | 12 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.94 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 53 | 0 | 74 | 311 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 3.65 | 3.92 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 50 | 1 | 60 | 260 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 2.98 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 71 | 0 | 72 | 294 | 77 | 18 | 8 | 26.2% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.61 | 3.20 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 35 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 22.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 364 | 102 | 862 | 3657 | 734 | 244 | 117 | 20.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.01 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 24 | 200 | 848 | 170 | 57 | 27 | 20.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.01 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trent Thornton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 22.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.45 | 21.1% | 13.4% | 108 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 71 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 70 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 70 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 70 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 69 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 69 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 69 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.13 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | .259 | 2.03 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -2.10 | 1.78 | 806 | 69 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 68 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 68 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 68 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 67 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.