Oliver Ortega
P
St. Lucie Mets
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.26
xFIP5.46
SIERA4.63
K%23.8%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.7%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.266
FB+1.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 19 | 2 | 44 | 195 | 37 | 17 | 0 | 12.9% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 8 | 5 | 29 | 109 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.3% | 2.83 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Burlington Bees | 19 | 18 | 82 | 346 | 86 | 41 | 6 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Mobile BayBears | 26 | 21 | 111 | 474 | 135 | 57 | 8 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 34 | 0 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 26.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 2.55 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 13 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 16 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.07 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 49 | 441 | 1882 | 398 | 220 | 41 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 22 | 200 | 854 | 180 | 100 | 19 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Oliver Ortega (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 115 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 80 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 79 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.97 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.69 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.72 | 2.67 | 382 | 77 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 77 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 76 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.8% | 15.1% | 140 | -0.04 | 2.33 | 318 | 76 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.71 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .253 | 3.13 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.58 | 2.04 | 269 | 75 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| JT Chargois R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .311 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.03 | 2.57 | 362 | 74 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.65 | 29.7% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.22 | 28.4% | 20.1% | 183 | -0.43 | 2.26 | 317 | 74 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.60 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .328 | 4.66 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.06 | 2.39 | 676 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.