Oliver Ortega
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.27
FIP4.31
K%24.7%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%14.6%
ROS IP108
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.266
FB+1.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 19 | 2 | 44 | 195 | 37 | 17 | 0 | 11% | 2.3 | 12.9% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 3.39 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 19 | 2 | 44 | 195 | 37 | 17 | 0 | 11% | 2.3 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 2.57 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 8 | 5 | 29 | 109 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 62% | 3.6 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 2.83 | 3.84 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 8 | 5 | 29 | 109 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 62% | 3.6 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 0.9% | 2.83 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Burlington Bees | 19 | 18 | 82 | 346 | 86 | 41 | 6 | 95% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 4.84 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Burlington Bees | 19 | 18 | 82 | 346 | 86 | 41 | 6 | 95% | 4.3 | 24.9% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 3.51 | 3.45 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 111 | 474 | 135 | 57 | 8 | 81% | 4.3 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.30 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 111 | 474 | 135 | 57 | 8 | 81% | 4.3 | 28.5% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 4.14 | 3.15 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 8.6% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 3.25 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.6% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 2.55 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.3% | 8.1% | 21.2% | 2.5% | 2.55 | 3.04 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 23% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 3.07 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 23% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 3.07 | 3.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 125 | 0 | 131 | 553 | 136 | 56 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 117 | 0 | 123 | 520 | 123 | 53 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 109 | 0 | 115 | 485 | 111 | 50 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 0 | 153 | 650 | 144 | 68 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 189 | 89 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 211 | 49 | 441 | 1882 | 398 | 220 | 43 | 23% | 2.1 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 22 | 200 | 854 | 180 | 100 | 20 | 23% | 2.1 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Oliver Ortega (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.61 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 238 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.49 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .321 | 2.93 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 162 | -0.56 | 2.48 | 338 | 73 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 68 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 66 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 65 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 65 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 65 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 29.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.29 | 28.4% | 20.1% | 183 | -0.81 | 2.25 | 317 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 65 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.14 | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 64 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 64 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.60 | 2.28 | 279 | 63 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 63 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.43 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 4.8% | .281 | 4.24 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 16 | -0.19 | 2.78 | 345 | 63 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 63 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 63 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 62 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 62 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 62 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 123 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 1.23 | 4.42 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |