Jorge Alcala
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.99
FIP5.00
xFIP4.82
SIERA4.21
K%23.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.7%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p5823.7%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SI (13%)
CU (23%)
CH-2.6 (2%)
SL-5.2 (16%)
FB-6.9 (59%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 12 | 2 | 32 | 142 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 9.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 12 | 7 | 42 | 164 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 1.49 | 2.53 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 22 | 18 | 109 | 438 | 95 | 44 | 10 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 3.05 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 16 | 99 | 425 | 104 | 49 | 7 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 4.23 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 33 | 16 | 112 | 485 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 16 | 0 | 24 | 94 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 2.62 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 60 | 229 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 26.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.92 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 20 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 4.82 | 6.97 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 63 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 74 | 26 | 9 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 3.00 | 3.94 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 55 | 257 | 61 | 29 | 13 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 5.4% | 6.22 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 54 | 21 | 8 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 56 | 245 | 62 | 25 | 9 | 25.5% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 51 | 21 | 8 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 25.3% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 4.99 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 44 | 19 | 8 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 326 | 59 | 642 | 2686 | 551 | 282 | 83 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.40 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 837 | 172 | 88 | 26 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jorge Alcala (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 4.1% | — | 5.04 | 25.3% | 14.6% | 134 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 73 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 72 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 72 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 70 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 5.85 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.85 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 162 | 70 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 69 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .282 | 3.52 | 30.5% | 24.0% | 421 | -1.04 | 1.99 | 1,253 | 69 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.19 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | .216 | 5.00 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.81 | 1.85 | 238 | 69 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2028 · 5.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.50 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | .353 | 5.51 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.01 | 4.34 | 138 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 68 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.