Jorge Alcala
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.71
FIP4.84
K%25.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p5823.7%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SI (13%)
CU (23%)
CH-2.6 (2%)
SL-5.2 (16%)
FB-6.9 (59%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 12 | 2 | 32 | 142 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 17% | 2.7 | 9.6% | 16.7% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 4.41 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 12 | 2 | 32 | 142 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 17% | 2.7 | 14.1% | 13.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 3.63 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 12 | 7 | 42 | 164 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 58% | 3.5 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 1.49 | 2.53 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 12 | 7 | 42 | 164 | 55 | 14 | 0 | 58% | 3.5 | 33.5% | 8.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.49 | 1.49 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 109 | 438 | 95 | 44 | 10 | 82% | 5.0 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.05 | 4.64 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 109 | 438 | 95 | 44 | 10 | 82% | 5.0 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 3.05 | 3.76 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 99 | 425 | 104 | 49 | 7 | 67% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 4.26 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 99 | 425 | 104 | 49 | 7 | 67% | 4.1 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.81 | 3.40 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 16 | 112 | 485 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 48% | 3.4 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 16 | 112 | 485 | 117 | 38 | 12 | 48% | 3.4 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 5.38 | 3.42 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 16 | 0 | 24 | 94 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 3.2% | 2.62 | 3.49 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 16 | 0 | 24 | 94 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 3.2% | 2.62 | 3.48 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 60 | 229 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 5.2% | 21.4% | 4.3% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 60 | 229 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 5.2% | 21.4% | 4.4% | 3.92 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.82 | 6.61 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.1% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 5.9% | 4.82 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 74 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 3.00 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 69 | 278 | 74 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 9.4% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 3.00 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 55 | 257 | 61 | 29 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 5.1% | 6.22 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 55 | 257 | 61 | 29 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 5.1% | 6.22 | 5.54 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 10 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 14.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 6.75 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 60 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 67 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 4.71 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 4.71 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 75 | 323 | 80 | 36 | 11 | — | — | 24.8% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 6 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 4.71 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 60 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 4.2% | 4.94 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 53 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 5.20 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 47 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 5.49 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 4.2% | 4.94 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 5.20 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 5.49 | 5.68 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 277 | 0 | 300 | 1250 | 308 | 120 | 54 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 835 | 206 | 80 | 36 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 330 | 59 | 646 | 2705 | 554 | 286 | 80 | 18% | 2.0 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.34 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 837 | 172 | 89 | 25 | 18% | 2.0 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jorge Alcala (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 4.0% | — | 5.37 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 159 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 77 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 71 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 69 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 67 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 67 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 66 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2028 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | .353 | 5.61 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.16 | 4.35 | 138 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 65 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | .216 | 5.10 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.87 | 1.86 | 238 | 65 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.74 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .275 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 187 | -0.26 | 3.08 | 349 | 65 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 65 |
| Simon Castro R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 185 | 64 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 1.68 | 5.06 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |