Jorge Alcala — OGILVIE

Jorge Alcala P Buffalo Bisons

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.76

FIP4.91

K%25.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5823.7%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SI (13%)

CU (23%)

CH-2.6 (2%)

SL-5.2 (16%)

FB-6.9 (59%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	2	32	142	20	19	0	17%	2.7	9.6%	16.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	3.06	4.41	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	12	2	32	142	20	19	0	17%	2.7	14.1%	13.4%	0.7%	0.0%	3.06	3.63	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	12	7	42	164	55	14	0	58%	3.5	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	0.0%	1.49	2.53	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	12	7	42	164	55	14	0	58%	3.5	33.5%	8.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.49	1.49	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	109	438	95	44	10	82%	5.0	16.5%	11.6%	4.8%	2.8%	3.05	4.70	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	109	438	95	44	10	82%	5.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.6%	2.3%	3.05	3.76	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	99	425	104	49	7	67%	4.1	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.1%	3.81	4.23	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	99	425	104	49	7	67%	4.1	24.5%	11.5%	12.9%	1.6%	3.81	3.40	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	16	112	485	117	38	12	48%	3.4	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	5.38	4.34	+0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	16	112	485	117	38	12	48%	3.4	24.1%	7.8%	16.3%	2.5%	5.38	3.42	+1.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	16	0	24	94	27	8	3	0%	1.5	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	3.2%	2.62	3.50	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	16	0	24	94	27	8	3	0%	1.5	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	3.2%	2.62	3.48	+0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	60	229	61	12	10	0%	1.0	26.6%	5.2%	21.4%	4.3%	3.92	3.90	+0.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	60	229	61	12	10	0%	1.0	26.6%	5.2%	21.4%	4.4%	3.92	3.84	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	16	3	2	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	3	16	3	2	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	28	118	32	15	7	0%	1.4	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	6.6%	4.82	6.63	-0.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	28	118	32	15	7	0%	1.4	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	6.6%	4.82	6.63	-0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	28	118	32	15	7	0%	1.4	27.1%	12.7%	14.4%	5.9%	4.82	5.67	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.4%	3.00	3.90	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.4%	3.00	3.90	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	26.6%	9.4%	17.3%	3.2%	3.00	3.78	+0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.4%	6.22	5.51	-0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.4%	6.22	5.51	-0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.1%	6.22	5.54	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			200	0	218	907	226	81	39	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	4.3%	4.29	4.46	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	12	0	15	70	17	8	1	0%	1.2	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	1.9%	5.40	4.12	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	12	0	15	70	17	8	1	0%	1.2	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	1.9%	5.40	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A RAW	TOR	2	0	3	11	4	0	0	0%	1.5	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	TOR	10	0	12	59	13	8	1	0%	1.2	22.0%	13.6%	8.5%	1.7%	6.75	3.89	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.5%	14.9%	4.1%	4.76	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	20	92	23	10	2	—	—	24.6%	11.2%	13.3%	2.1%	5.23	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	60	27	11	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	4.3%	5.00	5.16	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	TOR	51	0	53	224	53	26	10	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	4.6%	5.27	5.44	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	TOR	20	0	21	89	22	10	4	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	4.3%	5.00	5.16	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	29	14	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	4.6%	5.27	5.44	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		249	0	269	1123	278	105	49	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	4.3%	4.45	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	833	206	78	36	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	4.3%	4.45	4.57	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		332	59	649	2716	556	286	82	18%	2.0	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	3.91	4.36	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	18	200	837	171	88	25	18%	2.0	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	3.91	4.36	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Alcala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	25.4%	10.5%	4.1%	—	5.29	24.2%	13.1%	111	+0.38	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	72
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	71
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	71
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	70
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	70
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	69
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	69
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	68
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	66
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	66
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	66
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	547	65
Clayton Mortensen R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	31	SU	4.31	21.1%	9.7%	3.2%	.355	4.59	23.2%	9.0%	51	+0.28	4.31	221	65
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.2%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	366	65
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	173	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	24.6%	10.9%	1.67	5.00
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47