Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 5 | 5 | 25 | 103 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 2.55 | 3.00 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 5 | 5 | 25 | 103 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.2% | 4.9% | 23.3% | 1.0% | 2.55 | 1.88 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 121 | 508 | 97 | 38 | 13 | 85% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.72 | 5.09 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 121 | 508 | 97 | 38 | 13 | 85% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.84 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 24 | 150 | 617 | 138 | 47 | 12 | 92% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 4.09 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 24 | 150 | 617 | 138 | 47 | 12 | 92% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 3.78 | 3.24 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 146 | 602 | 125 | 51 | 14 | 83% | 5.0 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 2.90 | 4.15 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 146 | 602 | 125 | 51 | 14 | 83% | 5.0 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 2.90 | 3.68 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 442 | 92 | 37 | 20 | 83% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 4.71 | 5.95 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 442 | 92 | 37 | 20 | 83% | 4.4 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 4.71 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 49 | 220 | 72 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 8.1% | 19.7% | 4.7% | 5.36 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 49 | 220 | 72 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 24.5% | 4.1% | 5.36 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 57 | 231 | 69 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 7.4% | 20.9% | 1.4% | 3.16 | 2.42 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 57 | 231 | 69 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 7.8% | 22.1% | 1.7% | 3.16 | 2.54 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 70 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 62 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 70 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 62 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 64 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 66 | 24 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 5.9% | 5.20 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 64 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 66 | 24 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 6.1% | 5.20 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 45 | 0 | 48 | 193 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 5.0% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 68 | 276 | 62 | 15 | 8 | — | — | 22.5% | 5.4% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 63 | 268 | 62 | 15 | 8 | — | — | 23.2% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 56 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 50 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 56 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 462 | 3 | 492 | 2078 | 488 | 165 | 70 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 845 | 199 | 67 | 28 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 451 | 95 | 896 | 3736 | 758 | 307 | 127 | 21% | 2.0 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 3.87 | 4.29 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 21 | 200 | 834 | 169 | 69 | 28 | 21% | 2.0 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 3.87 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enyel De Los Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.53 | 22.0% | 14.3% | 114 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 68 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 67 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 66 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 66 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 66 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.54 | 3.15 | 272 | 66 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.48 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .190 | 2.41 | 28.0% | 22.8% | 166 | -1.07 | 2.12 | 315 | 66 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 65 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 65 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.85 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .228 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 16.7% | 99 | -0.45 | 2.23 | 367 | 65 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 65 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 186 | 64 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 64 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 64 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.39 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .376 | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.77 | 3.39 | 162 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.33 | 4.40 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |