Elvin Rodríguez
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 214 lbs
AAA
ERA6.94
FIP5.47
xFIP5.66
SIERA4.99
K%20.3%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%12.7%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†4545
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.421
SL+1.5 (12%)
CU (21%)
CH-0.6 (6%)
CT-4.6 (15%)
FB-6.4 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 12 | 11 | 51 | 221 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 11.1% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 14 | 11 | 59 | 219 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 1.53 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Burlington Bees | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.91 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 113 | 465 | 109 | 32 | 9 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.34 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 24 | 23 | 134 | 558 | 112 | 44 | 12 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 19 | 18 | 78 | 337 | 83 | 29 | 18 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 5.68 | 6.03 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 26 | 129 | 584 | 116 | 50 | 29 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 6.28 | 5.61 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 12 | 11 | 51 | 205 | 58 | 19 | 8 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 3.20 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 36 | 4 | 65 | 285 | 55 | 17 | 21 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.51 | 6.71 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 47 | 18 | 14 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.21 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 18 | 13 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.20 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 45 | 18 | 12 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.81 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 42 | 18 | 12 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.69 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 39 | 18 | 11 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.70 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 36 | 18 | 11 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 5.80 | 5.86 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 33 | 17 | 11 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.92 | 6.00 | -0.6 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 15.2% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 6.06 | 6.15 | -0.6 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 14.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.21 | 6.32 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 182 | 139 | 747 | 3155 | 541 | 270 | 130 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.34 | 4.99 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 845 | 145 | 72 | 35 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.34 | 4.99 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvin Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | — | 5.63 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 175 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Rob Wooten R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 84 |
| Erik Goeddel R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.54 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | .296 | 3.43 | 28.4% | 17.4% | 37 | -2.11 | 2.02 | 193 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 81 |
| Casey Cobb R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.66 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 191 | 80 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.29 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .244 | 5.54 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.25 | 4.51 | 224 | 79 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.78 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 167 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.03 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | .268 | 4.49 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 62 | -0.54 | 4.12 | 230 | 79 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 79 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.30 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | .248 | 3.57 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 27 | -1.73 | 3.57 | 157 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 78 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.14 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .311 | 6.15 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.01 | 3.40 | 258 | 77 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.03 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .262 | 4.66 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.37 | 4.66 | 135 | 77 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 76 |
| Ryan Boyer R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.76 | 21.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.92 | 132 | 74 |
| Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.63 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 321 | 74 |
| Robbie Baker R 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.69 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 181 | 74 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.