Elvin Rodríguez

Elvin Rodríguez P Reno Aces

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 214 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 124

ERA5.39

FIP5.66

K%18.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL4055

CMD3550

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.421

SL+1.5 (12%)

CU (21%)

CH-0.6 (6%)

CT-4.6 (15%)

FB-6.4 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	12	11	51	221	36	19	4	92%	4.2	11.1%	10.7%	0.3%	2.5%	4.59	4.92	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	12	11	51	221	36	19	4	92%	4.2	16.3%	8.6%	7.7%	1.8%	4.59	3.83	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	14	11	59	219	57	14	3	79%	4.2	17.7%	8.0%	9.7%	1.9%	1.53	3.67	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	14	11	59	219	57	14	3	79%	4.2	26.0%	6.4%	19.6%	1.4%	1.53	2.54	—
2017	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	281	61	14	7	100%	4.9	15.0%	6.2%	8.9%	3.3%	2.91	4.44	—
2017	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	68	281	61	14	7	100%	4.9	21.7%	5.0%	16.7%	2.5%	2.91	3.26	—
2018	20	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	113	465	109	32	9	100%	5.4	17.3%	8.1%	9.2%	2.7%	3.34	4.13	—
2018	20	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	113	465	109	32	9	100%	5.4	23.4%	6.9%	16.6%	1.9%	3.34	3.06	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	24	23	134	558	112	44	12	96%	5.6	15.5%	9.1%	6.4%	2.8%	3.77	4.48	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	24	23	134	558	112	44	12	96%	5.6	20.1%	7.9%	12.2%	2.2%	3.77	3.58	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	78	337	83	29	18	95%	4.1	19.6%	9.7%	10.0%	6.2%	5.68	6.07	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	78	337	83	29	18	95%	4.1	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	5.3%	5.68	5.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	129	584	116	50	29	87%	4.3	18.0%	8.9%	9.1%	5.3%	6.28	5.60	-1.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	129	584	116	50	29	87%	4.3	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	5.0%	6.28	5.39	-0.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	51	205	58	19	8	92%	4.2	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.2%	3.20	4.71	+0.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	51	205	58	19	8	92%	4.2	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.2%	3.20	4.71	+0.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	51	205	58	19	8	92%	4.2	28.3%	9.3%	19.0%	3.9%	3.20	3.99	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	65	285	55	17	21	11%	1.8	17.1%	5.6%	11.5%	8.1%	6.51	6.84	-1.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	65	285	55	17	21	11%	1.8	17.1%	5.6%	11.5%	8.1%	6.51	6.84	-1.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	65	285	55	17	21	11%	1.8	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	7.4%	6.51	6.39	-1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	7	53	243	48	21	21	47%	3.5	19.8%	8.6%	11.1%	8.6%	9.40	7.66	-1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	2	2	12	51	9	3	3	100%	6.0	18.0%	6.3%	11.8%	5.3%	5.39	5.66	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	147	620	111	41	32	100%	6.1	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	5.2%	5.51	5.68	-1.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	138	583	102	41	31	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.0%	10.4%	5.3%	5.63	5.78	-1.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	41	15	12	100%	6.0	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	5.2%	5.51	5.68	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	56	22	17	100%	5.8	17.4%	7.0%	10.4%	5.3%	5.63	5.78	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	29	183	792	145	59	50	78%	4.9	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	6.3%	6.68	5.94	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	31	200	867	159	65	55	78%	5.0	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	6.3%	6.68	5.94	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		182	139	747	3155	537	265	131	76%	4.1	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	4.1%	4.34	5.00	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	845	144	71	35	76%	4.1	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	4.1%	4.34	5.00	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvin Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	18.0%	6.3%	5.3%	—	5.73	17.7%	10.8%	285	+0.07	—	—	—
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	70
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	69
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	68
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	67
Michael Baird R 2022 · 6.02 FIP	27	SP-	6.02	20.9%	7.4%	6.8%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	132	67
Gabe Mosser R 2023 · 6.72 FIP	27	SP-	6.72	17.1%	8.5%	7.2%	.331	4.62	15.6%	8.2%	390	-2.10	3.75	651	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	65
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	64
Christian Bergman R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	15.3%	5.6%	4.0%	.309	4.62	15.0%	9.1%	322	-0.12	3.99	467	64
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	63
Max Duval R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	27	SP-	6.36	15.0%	7.8%	6.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	189	63
Reid Morgan R 2023 · 6.83 FIP	26	SW	6.83	15.6%	7.1%	7.6%	.322	5.19	17.2%	8.0%	46	-1.64	5.19	154	63
Nick Tepesch R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	28	SP	5.37	16.0%	6.2%	5.2%	.294	5.56	10.1%	2.1%	97	+0.19	3.74	276	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	63
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	62
Brandon Barker R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	28	SP-	5.78	16.4%	7.7%	5.6%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	463	62
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.94	15.2%	5.6%	118	-2.60	2.84	307	62
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	146	17.8%	6.6%	2.03	5.51
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64