Elvin Rodríguez
P
Reno Aces
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 214 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.51
FIP5.82
K%17.0%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.421
SL+1.5 (12%)
CU (21%)
CH-0.6 (6%)
CT-4.6 (15%)
FB-6.4 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 12 | 11 | 51 | 221 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 11.1% | 10.7% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.92 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 12 | 11 | 51 | 221 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 4.59 | 3.83 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 14 | 11 | 59 | 219 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 79% | 4.2 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 1.53 | 3.67 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 14 | 11 | 59 | 219 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 79% | 4.2 | 26.0% | 6.4% | 19.6% | 1.4% | 1.53 | 2.54 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 2.91 | 4.40 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.7% | 5.0% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 2.91 | 3.26 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 113 | 465 | 109 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.34 | 4.23 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 113 | 465 | 109 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 1.9% | 3.34 | 3.06 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 24 | 23 | 134 | 558 | 112 | 44 | 12 | 96% | 5.6 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 4.54 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 24 | 23 | 134 | 558 | 112 | 44 | 12 | 96% | 5.6 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 3.77 | 3.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 78 | 337 | 83 | 29 | 18 | 95% | 4.1 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 5.68 | 5.90 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 78 | 337 | 83 | 29 | 18 | 95% | 4.1 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 5.3% | 5.68 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 129 | 584 | 116 | 50 | 29 | 87% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.28 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 129 | 584 | 116 | 50 | 29 | 87% | 4.3 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 5.0% | 6.28 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 51 | 205 | 58 | 19 | 8 | 92% | 4.2 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 3.20 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 51 | 205 | 58 | 19 | 8 | 92% | 4.2 | 28.3% | 9.3% | 19.0% | 3.9% | 3.20 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 4 | 65 | 285 | 55 | 17 | 21 | 11% | 1.8 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 6.51 | 7.14 | -1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 4 | 65 | 285 | 55 | 17 | 21 | 11% | 1.8 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 6.51 | 6.39 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 278 | 47 | 18 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 5.51 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 18 | 14 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 5.64 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 42 | 18 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 5.76 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 5.64 | 5.83 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 5.76 | 5.92 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 16 | 108 | 478 | 88 | 38 | 34 | 67% | 4.5 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 7.50 | 6.40 | -1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 30 | 200 | 883 | 162 | 70 | 63 | 67% | 4.5 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 7.50 | 6.40 | -2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 139 | 747 | 3155 | 541 | 270 | 132 | 76% | 4.1 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 4.34 | 5.02 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 845 | 145 | 72 | 35 | 76% | 4.1 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 4.34 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvin Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.82 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | — | 5.87 | 16.9% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 71 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 71 |
| Kevin Miranda R 2024 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 69 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 68 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 67 |
| Xzavion Curry R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.61 | 13.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 513 | 66 |
| Michael Baird R 2025 · 6.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.05 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 132 | 66 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 65 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 65 |
| Max Duval R 2025 · 6.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.22 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 189 | 64 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 64 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 64 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 6.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.70 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 333 | 64 |
| Nick Tepesch R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.57 | 16.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | .294 | 5.38 | 10.1% | 2.1% | 97 | -0.19 | 3.70 | 276 | 63 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 63 |
| Brandon Barker R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.70 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 463 | 63 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 63 |
| Daulton Jefferies R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 265 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 2.08 | 5.63 |
| Adam Plutko ('21) | 4 | 68 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 5.37 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Elieser Hernández ('22) | 5 | 58 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.13 | 5.04 |
| Sam Gaviglio ('19) | 3 | 98 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.69 | 4.84 |