Pedro Avila — OGILVIE

Pedro Avila P Columbus Clippers

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.31

FIP4.41

K%22.6%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CH+5.0 (22%)

SI (12%)

CU (16%)

FB-1.1 (51%)

SL-2.6 (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	14	13	64	259	92	18	1	93%	4.5	24.2%	8.7%	15.5%	0.5%	2.12	2.46	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	14	13	64	259	92	18	1	93%	4.5	35.5%	6.9%	28.6%	0.4%	2.12	1.26	—
2016	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	20	20	93	395	92	38	10	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.4%	5.9%	2.6%	3.48	4.53	—
2016	19	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	20	20	93	395	92	38	10	100%	4.7	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.5%	3.48	3.75	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	129	542	170	33	5	96%	5.4	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	1.2%	3.70	2.66	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	129	542	170	33	5	96%	5.4	31.4%	6.1%	25.3%	0.9%	3.70	1.74	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	24	20	131	568	142	54	8	83%	5.4	19.2%	10.9%	8.3%	2.1%	4.27	4.01	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	24	20	131	568	142	54	8	83%	5.4	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	1.4%	4.27	2.96	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	29	126	36	11	5	88%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	6.4%	4.60	6.52	-0.5
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	7	29	126	36	11	5	88%	3.7	28.6%	8.7%	19.8%	4.0%	4.60	3.99	+0.3
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	12	79	347	87	39	6	32%	2.1	20.8%	11.9%	8.9%	2.0%	4.12	3.93	+0.6
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	12	79	347	87	39	6	32%	2.1	25.1%	11.2%	13.8%	1.7%	4.12	3.37	+1.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	116	493	129	50	17	75%	3.6	23.0%	10.8%	12.1%	3.3%	4.58	4.32	+0.8
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	24	116	493	129	50	17	75%	3.6	26.2%	10.1%	16.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.07	+1.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	106	490	102	56	16	64%	3.2	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	3.4%	6.03	4.70	+0.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	106	490	102	56	16	64%	3.2	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	3.4%	6.03	4.70	+0.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	106	490	102	56	16	64%	3.2	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.3%	6.03	4.72	+0.2
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	54	0	83	353	82	35	8	0%	1.5	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.64	+0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	54	0	83	353	82	35	8	0%	1.5	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.64	+0.9
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	54	0	83	353	82	35	8	0%	1.5	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.64	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			72	8	146	634	151	66	13	11%	2.0	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.1%	3.51	3.54	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	15	13	60	279	49	32	14	87%	4.0	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	5.5%	7.50	6.21	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	15	13	60	279	49	32	14	87%	4.0	14.6%	10.3%	4.3%	5.5%	7.50	6.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CLE	15	13	60	279	49	32	14	87%	4.0	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	5.0%	7.50	5.82	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	6	26	6	3	1	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	2.7%	4.31	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	66	305	55	35	15	—	—	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	4.8%	7.20	6.04	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	69	290	63	32	8	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.62	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	57	31	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.85	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	25	106	23	12	3	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.62	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	35	148	31	17	5	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	18	208	892	206	95	21	22%	2.5	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	2.3%	3.83	3.78	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		79	18	200	860	199	92	20	22%	2.5	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	2.3%	3.83	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		261	153	889	3852	793	394	101	59%	3.4	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.10	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	34	200	867	178	89	23	59%	3.4	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.10	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.6%	10.7%	2.7%	—	4.73	21.5%	10.4%	133	+0.32	—	—	—
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	72
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	69
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	68
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	68
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	67
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	67
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	67
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	66
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	66
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	64
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	64
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	64
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	63
Michael Blazek R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	28	SP-	3.85	16.0%	9.5%	1.6%	.317	5.72	20.8%	11.4%	39	+1.87	2.99	221	63
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	63
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	62
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	21.9%	11.0%	1.12	4.49
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04