Pedro Avila — OGILVIE

Pedro Avila P Columbus Clippers

+0.6 WAR

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

ERA4.02

FIP4.31

xFIP4.02

SIERA3.90

K%22.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.8%

IP73

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5555

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CH+5.0 (22%)

SI (12%)

CU (16%)

FB-1.1 (51%)

SL-2.6 (11%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	14	13	64	259	92	18	1	24.2%	8.7%	0.5%	2.12	2.46	+1.8
2016	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	20	20	93	395	92	38	10	17.2%	11.4%	2.8%	3.48	4.62	+0.7
2017	20	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	24	23	129	542	170	33	5	23.5%	7.1%	1.2%	3.70	2.67	+3.9
2018	21	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	24	20	131	568	142	54	8	19.2%	10.9%	2.1%	4.27	4.01	+1.9
2019	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	8	7	29	126	36	11	5	18.8%	11.8%	5.9%	4.60	6.24	-0.4
2021	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	37	12	79	347	87	39	6	20.8%	11.9%	1.9%	4.12	3.90	+1.1
2022	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	32	24	116	493	129	50	17	23.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.58	4.39	+1.2
2023	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	33	21	106	490	102	56	16	19.6%	11.7%	3.5%	6.03	4.83	+0.6
2024	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	54	0	83	353	82	35	8	23.2%	9.9%	2.1%	3.81	3.54	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	AAA	Columbus Clippers	3	3	10	44	11	4	2	—	—	—	6.52	—	—
ROS	29	MLB	CLE	13	13	73	309	69	33	8	22.4%	10.6%	2.7%	4.13	4.39	+0.6
2026 Total	29	MLB	CLE	—	—	83	353	80	37	10	22.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.41	3.88	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	CLE	13	13	71	299	65	32	8	21.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.48	+0.5
2028	31	MLB	CLE	12	12	68	289	61	31	8	21.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2029	32	MLB	CLE	12	12	66	277	57	30	8	20.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.71	+0.2
2030	33	MLB	CLE	11	11	63	265	53	29	8	19.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
2031	34	MLB	CLE	60	—	60	252	48	29	8	19.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.97	-0.0
2032	35	MLB	CLE	56	—	56	237	44	27	8	18.5%	11.6%	3.2%	5.03	5.12	-0.1
2033	36	MLB	CLE	52	—	52	222	39	26	7	17.7%	11.8%	3.3%	5.18	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			249	143	839	3617	766	374	88	21.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.17	3.96	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—			59	34	200	863	183	89	21	21.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.17	3.96	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	22.4%	10.6%	2.7%	—	4.59	21.2%	10.4%	205	+0.20	—	—	—
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	29	SW	4.23	22.9%	9.6%	3.4%	.261	3.16	24.7%	16.1%	143	-1.07	2.29	332	78
Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	77
Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	29	SW	4.03	24.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.65	2.38	160	76
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	29	SW	4.25	19.2%	8.5%	3.1%	.275	3.71	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.54	3.46	295	76
Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	75
Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	29	SW	3.30	21.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.319	3.76	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.46	1.69	468	75
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	75
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.283	3.61	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.09	3.17	272	75
Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	29	SW	4.01	23.2%	12.3%	2.4%	.290	4.91	22.5%	-2.9%	51	+0.90	4.01	130	74
Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	29	SW	3.44	18.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.348	2.85	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.59	2.85	199	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	74
Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	29	SW	4.25	22.7%	13.7%	2.4%	.310	4.90	15.3%	5.5%	154	+0.65	3.99	748	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	73
Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.32	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.51	2.26	172	73
Jose Cuas R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	29	SW	4.07	24.3%	12.0%	2.8%	.309	4.37	22.6%	8.2%	69	+0.30	2.70	282	73
Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	21.7%	7.6%	3.1%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.30	3.62	224	73
Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	28	SW	3.63	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	124	73

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.