Junior Fernández

Junior Fernández P Nashville Sounds

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.38

FIP4.13

K%26.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

FB+0.5

SL-1.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	58	247	63	17	0	77%	4.4	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	0.0%	3.59	2.66	—
2015	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	58	247	63	17	0	77%	4.4	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	0.0%	3.59	1.80	—
2016	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	122	535	88	54	7	83%	5.1	12.3%	11.8%	0.5%	1.6%	4.06	4.45	—
2016	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	122	535	88	54	7	83%	5.1	16.4%	10.1%	6.4%	1.3%	4.06	3.73	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	90	383	58	38	5	100%	5.6	11.7%	11.4%	0.3%	2.0%	3.69	4.65	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	90	383	58	38	5	100%	5.6	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	1.3%	3.69	3.80	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	134	24	16	1	0%	1.3	14.5%	16.2%	-1.7%	1.0%	3.52	4.50	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	31	134	24	16	1	0%	1.3	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	0.7%	3.52	3.52	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	77	322	96	35	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	0.7%	2.11	2.79	+1.6
2019	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	0	77	322	96	35	2	0%	1.3	29.8%	10.9%	18.9%	0.6%	2.11	2.30	+2.1
2020	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	3	0	3	16	2	2	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	18.00	7.06	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	3	0	3	16	2	2	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	18.00	8.10	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	35	163	37	19	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	3.5%	5.91	4.71	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	35	163	37	19	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	3.1%	5.91	4.47	+0.0
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	287	65	34	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.2%	8.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.37	+0.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	287	65	34	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.4%	4.14	4.10	+0.3
2023	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	51	0	59	275	52	32	10	0%	1.2	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.8%	5.22	5.18	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	51	0	59	275	52	32	10	0%	1.2	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.8%	5.22	5.18	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	51	0	59	275	52	32	10	0%	1.2	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.6%	5.22	5.18	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	1.0%	4.40	3.16	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	1.0%	4.40	3.16	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	29.5%	14.0%	15.5%	1.0%	4.40	2.94	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	0	54	251	47	34	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.17	5.17	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.9%	7.2%	2.4%	4.65	4.25	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	9.9%	7.2%	2.4%	4.65	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	MIL	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	20.6%	11.0%	9.6%	2.2%	4.65	3.97	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	26.9%	12.4%	14.5%	2.5%	4.38	4.13	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	37	161	35	18	4	—	—	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	2.2%	4.60	4.23	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	127	0	134	564	145	69	15	0%	1.1	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.35	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	119	0	124	526	130	64	16	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.57	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	53	25	6	0%	1.0	25.7%	12.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.35	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	66	0	69	291	72	36	9	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	0	172	750	172	95	22	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.39	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	871	200	110	26	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		338	46	611	2691	466	310	50	14%	1.8	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	1.8%	4.04	4.11	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	15	200	881	152	102	16	14%	1.8	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	1.8%	4.04	4.11	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Fernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	26.9%	12.4%	2.5%	—	4.46	25.2%	13.0%	258	+0.33	—	—	—
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	67
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	67
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	25.6%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.6%	13.9%	166	-0.28	2.10	346	67
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	66
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	65
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	65
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	64
José Cisnero R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	24.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.307	3.38	24.1%	12.2%	116	-0.52	2.26	279	64
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	63
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	63
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	63
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	62
Leonel Campos R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	29	SU	3.58	24.9%	13.8%	1.5%	.328	3.70	25.7%	13.9%	46	+0.12	2.62	168	62
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	62
Juan Nicasio R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	29	SW	3.60	26.9%	8.2%	3.2%	.321	2.94	24.6%	19.0%	162	-0.66	2.46	338	62
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	61
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	61
Ryan Tepera R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	25.4%	8.5%	2.2%	.245	4.11	25.5%	16.3%	107	+0.88	2.35	445	61
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	133	25.8%	12.3%	1.05	4.41
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63