Junior Fernández
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 142 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 97
ERA4.47
FIP4.25
K%27.9%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP142
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.8
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+0.5
SL-1.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 2.66 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 77% | 4.4 | 25.5% | 6.9% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 1.80 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 122 | 535 | 88 | 54 | 7 | 83% | 5.1 | 12.3% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 4.06 | 4.44 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 122 | 535 | 88 | 54 | 7 | 83% | 5.1 | 16.4% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 4.06 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 90 | 383 | 58 | 38 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 11.7% | 11.4% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 4.94 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 90 | 383 | 58 | 38 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.1% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 3.69 | 3.80 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 31 | 134 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.5% | 16.2% | -1.7% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 4.41 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 31 | 134 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 3.52 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 58 | 0 | 77 | 322 | 96 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 2.11 | 2.77 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 58 | 0 | 77 | 322 | 96 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 10.9% | 18.9% | 0.6% | 2.11 | 2.30 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 18.00 | 7.06 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 18.00 | 8.10 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 163 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.91 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 163 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 5.91 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 287 | 65 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 287 | 65 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 51 | 0 | 59 | 275 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 51 | 0 | 59 | 275 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.18 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 35 | 0 | 43 | 193 | 57 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 14.7% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 4.40 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 35 | 0 | 43 | 193 | 57 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.5% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 2.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 0 | 31 | 136 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 135 | 0 | 142 | 600 | 167 | 85 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 173 | 736 | 195 | 100 | 18 | — | — | 26.5% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.27 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 14 | 60 | 17 | 8 | 1 | — | — | 27.9% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 3.87 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 127 | 0 | 134 | 564 | 150 | 78 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 119 | 0 | 124 | 526 | 134 | 72 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 110 | 0 | 115 | 486 | 119 | 67 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 55 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 74 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 81 | 45 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 250 | 0 | 264 | 1137 | 273 | 156 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.45 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 862 | 207 | 118 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 338 | 46 | 611 | 2691 | 472 | 321 | 50 | 14% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 15 | 200 | 881 | 155 | 105 | 16 | 14% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Junior Fernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 27.9% | 14.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.66 | 25.6% | 11.8% | 373 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 67 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 66 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 65 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 64 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 64 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 63 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 63 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 63 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 3.78 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 46 | +0.19 | 2.69 | 168 | 62 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.60 | 2.28 | 279 | 62 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 62 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 61 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 60 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 185 | 60 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 59 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 59 |
| Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.49 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .321 | 2.93 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 162 | -0.56 | 2.48 | 338 | 59 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 59 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 59 |
| Curtis Partch R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.14 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 0.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 124 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 129 | 26.2% | 13.9% | 1.08 | 4.56 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |