Junior Fernández
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP4.89
SIERA4.84
K%23.8%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%11.9%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD5050
K†6565
FB Velo
p9098.8
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+0.5
SL-1.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 13 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 2.66 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 19 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 20 | 122 | 535 | 88 | 54 | 7 | 12.3% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 4.06 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 90 | 383 | 58 | 38 | 5 | 11.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | 3.69 | 4.61 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 0 | 31 | 134 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 3.52 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 58 | 0 | 77 | 322 | 96 | 35 | 2 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 2.11 | 2.82 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 0 | 35 | 163 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.91 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57 | 0 | 63 | 287 | 65 | 34 | 7 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 51 | 0 | 59 | 275 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 35 | 0 | 43 | 193 | 57 | 27 | 2 | 26.0% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 3.31 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 46 | 20 | 4 | 28.9% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 43 | 19 | 4 | 27.8% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 23.9% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 312 | 46 | 580 | 2555 | 448 | 306 | 46 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 16 | 200 | 881 | 154 | 106 | 16 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Junior Fernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 28.9% | 12.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.23 | 26.9% | 14.7% | 106 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.91 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.0% | .325 | 3.57 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.66 | 2.91 | 210 | 77 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 77 |
| Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.96 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .310 | 4.02 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 157 | +1.06 | 1.75 | 365 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 72 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 72 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 72 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .281 | 7.47 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 72 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 71 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.97 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.69 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.72 | 2.67 | 382 | 71 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 71 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.14 | 30.3% | 17.0% | 0.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 197 | 71 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 70 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 70 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 264 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.