Adonis Medina
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 187 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION44 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.93
FIP4.91
xFIP4.38
SIERA3.89
K%18.1%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%6.2%
IP45
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p1019.3%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p130.356
FB+2.4
SL-2.5
CH-3.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 10 | 8 | 45 | 189 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 2.98 | 3.45 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 133 | 39 | 7 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.01 | 4.01 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 21 | 111 | 472 | 123 | 36 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.12 | 3.66 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 22 | 21 | 106 | 468 | 82 | 41 | 11 | 14.2% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 4.94 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 22.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.33 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 21 | 18 | 75 | 334 | 61 | 29 | 10 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 2 | 55 | 259 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 5.27 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 49 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 37 | 7 | 66 | 310 | 55 | 43 | 4 | 15.6% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 34 | 23 | 5 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 17.6% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 17.1% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 15.5% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 5.80 | 5.99 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 14.6% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 6.12 | 6.33 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 100 | 646 | 2829 | 489 | 276 | 66 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 31 | 200 | 875 | 151 | 85 | 20 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adonis Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 2.6% | — | 5.23 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 118 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 87 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 81 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 80 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 79 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 79 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Alex Caldera R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 78 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 77 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.08 | 15.6% | 12.8% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 533 | 76 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 76 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.20 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.71 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.49 | 3.27 | 171 | 76 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 76 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 75 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.24 | 6.7% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .292 | 5.38 | 9.0% | -4.4% | 49 | +0.14 | 4.89 | 146 | 75 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.