Bennett Sousa

P Houston Astros

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX3 levels	27	0	29	4.30	2.90	32.2%	9.1%	0.6	K 29.4% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.38
2025	30	MIX2 levels	48	0	56	2.59	2.54	29.6%	6.9%	1.3	K 29.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.69
2026	31	MIX4 levels	43	2	39	4.66	3.88	26.7%	11.0%	0.3	K 22.7% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	32	MLBHOU	33	0	35	3.87	3.98	28.1%	9.3%	0.2
2028PROJ92% MLB	33	MLBHOU	36	0	38	4.11	4.26	27.3%	9.7%	0.1
2029PROJ88% MLB	34	MLBHOU	28	0	29	4.38	4.57	26.4%	10.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%53

xwOBA vs49

FB Velo43

Form6.75 ERA (proj 3.87) · K 23.9% (proj 28.1%) · BB 11.9% (proj 9.3%) ▼▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsHideki Okajima (age 32) · Cory Luebke (age 31) · Raul Valdes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA3.87

FIP3.98

K%28.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%18.9%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p5322.7%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	35	134	42	7	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	0.0%	1.27	2.59	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	35	134	42	7	0	0%	1.8	31.3%	5.2%	26.1%	0.0%	1.27	1.32	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	65	266	74	12	7	0%	1.5	20.9%	5.0%	15.9%	3.6%	2.49	3.92	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	65	266	74	12	7	0%	1.5	27.8%	4.5%	23.3%	2.6%	2.49	2.78	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	47	200	71	20	7	0%	1.2	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.61	3.92	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	47	200	71	20	7	0%	1.2	35.5%	10.0%	25.5%	3.5%	3.61	3.29	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	48	212	47	20	7	0%	0.9	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.9%	5.85	4.19	+0.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	48	212	47	20	7	0%	0.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.7%	3.3%	5.85	4.30	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	29	121	39	11	3	0%	1.1	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.38	+0.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	29	121	39	11	3	0%	1.1	32.2%	9.1%	23.1%	2.5%	4.30	2.90	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	7.5%	22.1%	2.1%	2.59	2.69	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	7.5%	22.1%	2.1%	2.59	2.69	+1.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	6.9%	22.7%	1.9%	2.59	2.54	+1.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	2	39	172	46	19	5	5%	0.9	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.80	-0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	2	39	172	46	19	5	5%	0.9	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.80	-0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	2	39	172	46	19	5	5%	0.9	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.66	3.88	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	1	110	470	113	44	13	1%	1.0	24.0%	9.4%	14.7%	2.8%	4.83	3.78	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	HOU	33	0	35	148	42	14	5	0%	1.1	28.1%	9.3%	18.9%	3.1%	3.87	3.98	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	39	0	41	172	47	17	6	0%	1.0	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	3.4%	4.11	4.26	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	32	0	34	141	37	14	5	0%	1.0	26.4%	10.2%	16.2%	3.7%	4.38	4.57	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	44	16	5	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.7%	17.6%	3.4%	4.11	4.26	+0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	28	0	29	122	32	13	5	0%	1.0	26.4%	10.2%	16.2%	3.7%	4.38	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	1	177	753	189	72	23	1%	1.0	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.60	3.87	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	851	214	81	26	1%	1.0	25.1%	9.6%	15.5%	3.0%	4.60	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		275	2	319	1321	324	117	37	1%	1.2	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.8%	3.47	3.69	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		172	1	200	828	203	73	23	1%	1.2	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.8%	3.47	3.69	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 19 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.38 (+0.58)K% 34.1% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.860	29.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×0.900	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.896	×1.100	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 27 IPFIP 3.65 → 3.58 (−0.06)K% 30.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.17%	—	×0.880	26.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×1.050	9.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.421	×1.100	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 184).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABirmingham Barons · 25 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.92 (+0.98)K% 36.2% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.19%	—	×0.810	29.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.087	×1.200	4.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 23 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.82 (+0.25)K% 34.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.74%	—	×0.880	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.050	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.190	×1.100	2.92%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AKannapolis Intimidators · 32 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.79 (+1.31)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.20%	—	×1.180	4.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷0.849	×1.300	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 30 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.09 (+0.87)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.770	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.42%	—	×1.150	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.113	×1.250	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AKannapolis Intimidators · 22 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.59 (+0.77)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.740	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.180	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.034	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGreat Falls Voyagers · 13 IPFIP -0.28 → 0.80 (+1.08)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.28 → 0.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bennett Sousa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	28.1%	9.3%	3.1%	—	4.40	26.9%	16.9%	74	+0.42	—	—	—
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	74
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	70
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	69
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	69
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	67
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	66
Cam Booser L 2024 · 3.11 FIP	32	SU	3.11	26.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.338	3.94	27.0%	19.2%	107	+0.83	2.76	314	66
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	65
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.63	23.9%	12.2%	82	-0.08	3.78	233	64
Nick Ramirez L 2022 · 3.12 FIP	32	SU	3.12	20.8%	6.6%	1.7%	.294	3.19	16.3%	10.8%	113	+0.07	2.91	478	64
Ricardo Rincon L 2002 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	22.1%	4.5%	1.8%	.270	4.19	17.7%	7.4%	137	+1.39	2.72	436	64
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	64
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	64
George Sherrill L 2009 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	21.6%	7.1%	1.4%	.249	3.79	19.7%	10.4%	72	+0.84	2.74	323	64
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	62
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	62
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	62
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	61
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	294	61
Mike Zagurski L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	31.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.294	3.12	30.4%	21.1%	45	+0.18	2.94	120	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	37	25.7%	9.7%	1.19	4.46
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*