Bennett Sousa — OGILVIE

Bennett Sousa P Houston Astros

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 95

ERA3.32

FIP3.26

K%28.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p8831.3%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

SL+9.3 (58%)

FB+0.8 (42%)

SI (1%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	35	134	42	7	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	0.0%	1.27	2.59	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	35	134	42	7	0	0%	1.8	31.3%	5.2%	26.1%	0.0%	1.27	1.32	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	65	266	74	12	7	0%	1.5	20.9%	5.0%	15.9%	3.6%	2.49	3.92	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	65	266	74	12	7	0%	1.5	27.8%	4.5%	23.3%	2.6%	2.49	2.78	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	47	200	71	20	7	0%	1.2	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	3.6%	3.61	3.92	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	47	200	71	20	7	0%	1.2	35.5%	10.0%	25.5%	3.5%	3.61	3.29	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	48	212	47	20	7	0%	0.9	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.9%	5.85	4.19	+0.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	48	212	47	20	7	0%	0.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.7%	3.3%	5.85	4.30	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	29	121	39	11	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	8.8%	19.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.46	+0.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	29	121	39	11	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	8.8%	19.6%	3.0%	4.30	3.46	+0.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	29	121	39	11	3	0%	1.1	32.2%	9.1%	23.1%	2.5%	4.30	2.90	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	7.5%	22.1%	2.1%	2.59	2.69	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	7.5%	22.1%	2.1%	2.59	2.69	+1.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	216	64	15	4	0%	1.2	29.6%	6.9%	22.7%	1.9%	2.59	2.54	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	1	105	444	107	42	11	1%	1.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	2.5%	4.63	3.62	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	37	2	34	146	40	17	3	5%	0.9	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	2.7%	4.01	4.43	+0.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	37	2	34	146	40	17	3	5%	0.9	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	2.7%	4.01	4.43	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	ROK RAW	HOU	2	1	2	8	2	0	0	50%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	31	AA RAW	HOU	2	0	3	8	7	0	0	0%	1.4	87.5%	0.0%	87.5%	0.0%	0.00	-4.29	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	HOU	4	0	4	15	5	1	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.13	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	HOU	29	1	25	115	26	16	3	3%	0.9	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	2.6%	5.40	4.39	+0.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	HOU	29	1	25	115	26	16	3	3%	0.9	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	2.6%	5.40	4.39	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.3%	8.3%	20.1%	2.7%	3.32	3.26	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.3%	8.3%	20.1%	2.7%	3.32	3.26	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	39	171	47	19	4	—	—	27.5%	11.2%	16.4%	2.2%	3.91	4.25	+0.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	31	130	47	19	4	—	—	36.1%	14.6%	21.5%	2.8%	5.01	3.45	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	269	76	24	8	0%	1.0	28.1%	8.8%	19.4%	3.0%	3.77	3.85	+0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	56	0	58	247	67	23	8	0%	1.0	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	3.2%	3.98	4.13	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	73	23	8	0%	1.1	28.1%	8.8%	19.4%	3.0%	3.77	3.85	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	53	0	56	236	65	22	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	3.2%	3.98	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	1	227	959	250	88	27	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	2.8%	4.21	3.60	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	1	200	845	220	78	24	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	2.8%	4.21	3.60	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		269	2	314	1295	316	115	35	1%	1.2	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.64	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	1	200	825	201	73	22	1%	1.2	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.64	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bennett Sousa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.17	31.4%	6.6%	2.7%	—	3.98	27.7%	18.7%	122	+0.81	—	—	—
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	76
Boone Logan L 2016 · 2.58 FIP	31	SU	2.58	30.5%	8.0%	1.9%	.207	3.74	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.16	2.58	113	75
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	74
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	74
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	72
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	72
Sam Freeman L 2018 · 3.35 FIP	31	SU	3.35	26.9%	13.9%	1.4%	.304	5.60	16.8%	5.5%	59	+2.25	3.03	299	71
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	71
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	71
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	71
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	255	70
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	70
Tyler Lyons L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	27.2%	8.9%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	376	69
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	68
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	68
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	67
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	65
Andrew Chafin L 2021 · 2.83 FIP	31	SU	2.83	24.1%	6.8%	1.7%	.228	3.24	28.1%	17.7%	165	+0.41	2.42	531	65
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	64
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	29.1%	8.1%	1.15	3.64
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84