Bennett Sousa
P
Houston Astros
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.5 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7483vR 92
ERA3.19
FIP3.14
K%31.5%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%25.0%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+9.3 (58%)
FB+0.8 (42%)
SI (1%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 1.27 | 2.59 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 31.3% | 5.2% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 1.27 | 1.32 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 266 | 74 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 5.0% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 2.49 | 4.04 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 266 | 74 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.8% | 4.5% | 23.3% | 2.6% | 2.49 | 2.78 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 71 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.9% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.73 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 71 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.5% | 10.0% | 25.5% | 3.5% | 3.61 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 5.85 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 10.2% | 19.8% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.2% | 9.1% | 23.1% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 2.90 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 216 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 7.5% | 22.1% | 1.9% | 2.59 | 2.59 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 216 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 6.9% | 22.7% | 1.9% | 2.59 | 2.54 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 13 | 1 | 12 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | HOU | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 57 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.5% | 6.6% | 25.0% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 3.14 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | HOU | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 57 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 6.6% | 25.0% | 2.8% | 3.23 | 3.18 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 55 | 230 | 75 | 18 | 5 | — | — | 32.8% | 7.8% | 25.0% | 2.2% | 2.99 | 2.46 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 46 | 196 | 75 | 18 | 5 | — | — | 38.4% | 9.1% | 29.3% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 2.44 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 81 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 7.2% | 22.7% | 3.0% | 3.43 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 71 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 7.8% | 20.7% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 7.2% | 22.7% | 3.1% | 3.48 | 3.57 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 68 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 7.8% | 20.7% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 233 | 0 | 243 | 1018 | 286 | 80 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 7.8% | 20.2% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.28 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 236 | 66 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 7.8% | 20.2% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 245 | 1 | 292 | 1197 | 303 | 103 | 30 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.42 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 1 | 200 | 819 | 208 | 70 | 21 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 3.26 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bennett Sousa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.14 | 31.5% | 6.6% | 2.7% | — | 3.68 | 29.3% | 21.8% | 122 | +0.54 | — | — | — |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 74 |
| Brooks Raley L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .208 | 2.79 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.35 | 1.74 | 238 | 74 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.44 | 30.5% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .207 | 3.84 | 28.5% | 17.9% | 32 | +1.40 | 2.44 | 113 | 73 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 70 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 68 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 65 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.90 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | .315 | 2.68 | 26.9% | 20.1% | 93 | -0.22 | 2.46 | 483 | 63 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 62 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 376 | 62 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 62 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 61 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.18 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.35 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.17 | 2.33 | 455 | 61 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 61 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 61 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.45 | 12.1% | -0.6% | 33 | +2.37 | 1.96 | 191 | 60 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.14 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 455 | 60 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.95 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 101 | 58 |
| Andrew Chafin L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.79 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 1.6% | .228 | 3.32 | 28.1% | 17.7% | 165 | +0.53 | 2.42 | 531 | 58 |
| Aroldis Chapman L 2026 · 2.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.04 | 36.2% | 10.6% | 1.2% | .287 | 3.82 | 34.8% | 18.9% | 93 | +1.78 | 1.19 | 586 | 58 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.35 | 26.9% | 13.9% | 1.4% | .304 | 5.70 | 16.8% | 5.5% | 59 | +2.35 | 3.03 | 299 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 29.9% | 7.2% | 1.17 | 3.46 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |