Sam McWilliams

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

Scout OFP45ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	36	4	63	6.82	5.14	29.9%	13.9%	—	K 26.0% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.70
2025	29	AAAMIL	18	0	21	5.66	4.45	29.5%	16.2%	—	K 25.4% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.35
2026	30	AAABOS	20	0	26	4.15	3.79	30.7%	10.5%	—	K 26.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	150	0	158	4.52	4.52	26.8%	11.7%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBBOS	51	0	54	4.63	4.72	25.8%	11.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBBOS	70	0	74	4.80	4.93	25.1%	11.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control47Command45FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Josh A. Smith (age 31) · Scott Copeland (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%26.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP158

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	7	7	33	134	21	5	1	100%	4.7	10.7%	4.7%	6.0%	1.0%	3.27	3.36	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	7	7	33	134	21	5	1	100%	4.7	15.7%	3.7%	11.9%	0.7%	3.27	2.68	—
2016	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	15	15	75	318	43	18	4	100%	5.0	10.0%	6.7%	3.3%	1.7%	3.98	4.02	—
2016	20	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	15	15	75	318	43	18	4	100%	5.0	13.5%	5.7%	7.9%	1.3%	3.98	3.37	—
2017	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	25	25	133	524	98	29	5	100%	5.3	13.8%	6.5%	7.3%	1.4%	2.84	3.52	—
2017	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	25	25	133	524	98	29	5	100%	5.3	18.7%	5.5%	13.2%	1.0%	2.84	2.77	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	138	596	133	49	14	85%	5.1	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	138	596	133	49	14	85%	5.1	22.3%	8.2%	14.1%	2.3%	4.38	3.56	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	132	583	109	46	10	73%	5.1	15.7%	8.5%	7.1%	1.8%	4.10	3.87	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	132	583	109	46	10	73%	5.1	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	1.7%	4.10	3.48	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	49	243	56	48	8	6%	1.4	19.7%	21.0%	-1.4%	3.8%	8.27	6.21	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	49	243	56	48	8	6%	1.4	23.0%	19.8%	3.3%	3.3%	8.27	5.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	19	96	18	19	2	56%	2.1	16.2%	18.3%	-2.1%	2.7%	10.12	5.53	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	19	96	18	19	2	56%	2.1	18.8%	19.8%	-1.0%	2.1%	10.12	5.62	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	5.8%	6.82	5.70	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	5.8%	6.82	5.70	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	29.9%	13.9%	16.0%	4.8%	6.82	5.14	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	14.6%	10.8%	2.8%	5.66	4.35	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	14.6%	10.8%	2.8%	5.66	4.35	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	16.2%	13.3%	2.9%	5.66	4.45	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	20	0	26	114	35	12	4	0%	1.3	26.4%	9.5%	16.9%	3.9%	4.15	4.19	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	20	0	26	114	35	12	4	0%	1.3	26.4%	9.5%	16.9%	3.9%	4.15	4.19	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	20	0	26	114	35	12	4	0%	1.3	30.7%	10.5%	20.2%	3.5%	4.15	3.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	150	0	158	667	179	78	22	0%	1.1	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	139	0	146	616	159	72	22	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.63	4.72	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	128	0	134	565	142	67	21	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.2%	3.8%	4.80	4.93	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	51	0	54	228	59	27	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	11.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.63	4.72	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	78	37	12	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.8%	13.2%	3.8%	4.80	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	0	127	538	137	63	20	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.73	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	99	31	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.73	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		219	100	688	3007	513	298	78	46%	3.1	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	2.6%	4.62	4.35	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	29	200	875	149	87	23	46%	3.1	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	2.6%	4.62	4.35	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam McWilliams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	26.8%	11.7%	3.3%	—	4.82	25.5%	13.7%	280	+0.30	—	—	—
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	62
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	60
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	56
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	55
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	54
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	31	SW	3.98	26.9%	7.8%	3.9%	.259	3.13	29.2%	20.8%	171	-0.85	2.53	827	54
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	53
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	52
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,288	52
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	50
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	50
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	49
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	49
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	48
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	48
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	48
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	48
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	48
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	48
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	146	25.9%	11.7%	1.37	4.64
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Eric Erickson ('14-'22, 2 WAR*)	4.1	164	25.8%*	11.1%*	1.49*	4.56*
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*