Albert Abreu

P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX3 levels	41	0	46	2.93	4.03	23.0%	11.8%	0.3	K 22.1% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.35
2023	27	MLBNYY	45	0	59	4.73	4.74	22.8%	12.7%	-0.1
2025	29	AAACIN	17	2	23	5.79	4.73	15.9%	14.2%	—	K 13.7% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	31	MLBCIN	116	0	122	4.63	4.50	23.7%	11.1%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCIN	39	0	41	4.70	4.75	22.9%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBCIN	54	0	57	4.90	5.03	22.0%	11.9%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo82

Whiff%56

K%53

xwOBA vs35

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 31) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.63

FIP4.50

K%23.7%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

SL+3.7

CH-1.9

FB-5.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	13	7	47	196	51	21	2	54%	3.6	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.4%	2.51	4.09	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	13	7	47	196	51	21	2	54%	3.6	26.0%	10.7%	15.3%	1.0%	2.51	2.82	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	102	438	115	58	7	67%	4.2	19.5%	15.6%	3.9%	2.1%	3.72	4.57	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	102	438	115	58	7	67%	4.2	26.3%	13.2%	13.0%	1.6%	3.72	3.44	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	53	221	61	18	3	93%	3.8	19.8%	10.2%	9.5%	2.0%	3.38	3.81	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	53	221	61	18	3	93%	3.8	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	1.4%	3.38	2.56	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	73	326	74	32	9	100%	4.3	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.4%	5.20	4.97	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	73	326	74	32	9	100%	4.3	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	2.8%	5.20	3.99	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	23	20	97	440	91	53	9	87%	4.2	16.8%	13.2%	3.5%	2.6%	4.28	4.77	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	23	20	97	440	91	53	9	87%	4.2	20.7%	12.0%	8.6%	2.0%	4.28	4.07	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	2	0	1	11	2	2	1	0%	0.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	9.1%	20.25	8.86	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	2	0	1	11	2	2	1	0%	0.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	9.1%	20.25	14.35	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	228	66	29	8	0%	1.4	27.3%	13.0%	14.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.24	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	228	66	29	8	0%	1.4	28.9%	12.7%	16.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.21	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	46	204	47	24	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	2.7%	2.93	4.35	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	46	204	47	24	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.3%	2.5%	2.93	4.03	+0.3
2023	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	45	0	59	268	61	34	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	3.1%	4.73	4.51	+0.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	45	0	59	268	61	34	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.74	-0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	13.7%	12.7%	1.0%	2.2%	5.79	4.74	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	13.7%	12.7%	1.0%	2.2%	5.79	4.74	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	15.9%	14.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.79	4.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			108	0	136	607	136	76	23	0%	1.3	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.8%	4.58	4.98	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CIN	116	0	122	515	122	57	15	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	107	0	113	475	109	54	15	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.75	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	CIN	98	0	103	436	96	52	15	0%	1.1	22.0%	11.9%	10.1%	3.5%	4.90	5.03	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	39	0	41	173	40	20	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.75	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	CIN	54	0	57	241	53	29	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	11.9%	10.1%	3.5%	4.90	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	0	234	1022	229	125	37	0%	1.2	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.74	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	0	200	874	196	107	32	0%	1.2	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		234	75	554	2445	483	321	64	32%	2.4	19.8%	13.1%	6.6%	2.6%	4.14	4.52	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	27	200	883	174	116	23	32%	2.4	19.8%	13.1%	6.6%	2.6%	4.14	4.52	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Albert Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	23.7%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.88	22.5%	10.8%	216	+0.38	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	64
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	64
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	63
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	62
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	61
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	60
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	59
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	59
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	59
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	59
Matt Herges R 2001 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	17.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.281	3.73	17.0%	10.3%	209	+0.11	2.90	691	58
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	58
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	57
Carlos Torres R 2014 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	23.7%	8.4%	2.7%	.295	3.72	20.2%	12.4%	213	+0.06	2.89	604	57
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,288	57
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	57
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	57
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	57
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	79	22.8%	11.9%	1.30	4.69
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Lefty Weinert ('19-'31, -1 WAR*)	2.2	109	21.5%*	12.8%*	1.32*	4.45*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28