Jefry Yan

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	49	0	57	4.89	2.96	37.8%	17.8%	—	K 31.6% · BB 18.4% · FIP 3.54
2025	28	AAACOL	27	1	30	7.28	4.04	30.8%	15.1%	—	K 26.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.21
2026	29	MIX3 levels	57	1	64	3.64	2.88	37.8%	15.9%	1.3	K 33.0% · BB 16.1% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	30	MLBNYM	24	0	25	4.26	4.29	30.4%	14.9%	0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	31	MLBNYM	23	0	24	4.42	4.53	29.0%	14.7%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%77

xwOBA vs43

Form4.87 ERA (proj 4.26) · K 27.1% (proj 30.4%) · BB 15.6% (proj 14.9%) ▼ last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAnthony Gose (age 30) · Clay Rapada (age 30) · Brian Moran (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.26

FIP4.29

K%30.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p9035.3%

p7727.1%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	24	0	35	142	26	20	1	0%	1.4	12.5%	17.6%	-5.2%	1.0%	1.56	4.82	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	24	0	35	142	26	20	1	0%	1.4	18.3%	14.1%	4.2%	0.7%	1.56	3.71	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	31	147	51	25	2	0%	1.5	26.6%	19.5%	7.1%	2.0%	2.61	4.41	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	31	147	51	25	2	0%	1.5	34.7%	17.0%	17.7%	1.4%	2.61	3.07	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	38	4	57	266	88	46	3	11%	1.5	26.8%	19.0%	7.8%	1.3%	4.89	3.96	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	38	4	57	266	88	46	3	11%	1.5	33.1%	17.3%	15.8%	1.1%	4.89	3.12	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	270	102	48	4	0%	1.2	31.6%	18.4%	13.2%	1.4%	4.89	3.54	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	270	102	48	4	0%	1.2	37.8%	17.8%	20.0%	1.5%	4.89	2.96	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	1	30	146	45	22	4	4%	1.1	26.5%	13.6%	12.9%	3.0%	7.28	4.21	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	1	30	146	45	22	4	4%	1.1	26.5%	13.6%	12.9%	3.0%	7.28	4.21	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	1	30	146	45	22	4	4%	1.1	30.8%	15.1%	15.8%	2.7%	7.28	4.04	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	1	64	283	107	45	5	2%	1.1	33.0%	16.1%	16.9%	1.9%	3.64	3.38	+0.9
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	1	64	283	107	45	5	2%	1.1	33.0%	16.1%	16.9%	1.9%	3.64	3.38	+0.9
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	1	64	283	107	45	5	2%	1.1	37.8%	15.9%	21.9%	1.8%	3.64	2.88	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	1	20	96	26	15	3	6%	1.1	27.1%	15.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.87	4.67	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	NYM	24	0	25	106	32	16	3	0%	1.0	30.4%	14.9%	15.5%	2.7%	4.26	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	29	0	30	127	37	19	4	0%	1.0	29.0%	14.7%	14.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.53	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	29	15	3	0%	1.0	29.0%	14.7%	14.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	1	44	196	55	30	6	2%	1.1	28.0%	15.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	5	200	891	251	137	27	2%	1.1	28.0%	15.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		216	6	274	1254	346	219	21	3%	1.3	27.6%	17.5%	10.1%	1.7%	4.18	3.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	4	200	916	253	160	16	3%	1.3	27.6%	17.5%	10.1%	1.7%	4.18	3.92	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 27 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.18 (+0.93)K% 39.5% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.47%	—	×0.810	31.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.100	17.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 17 IPFIP 1.77 → 2.22 (+0.45)K% 49.3% → 42.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	49.32%	—	×0.860	42.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.44%	—	×0.900	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 2.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 30 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.21 (+0.30)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.82%	—	×0.860	26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.07%	—	×0.900	13.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.017	×1.100	2.96%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 51 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.54 (+0.91)K% 39.1% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.06%	—	×0.810	31.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.74%	—	×1.100	18.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷1.091	×1.200	1.42%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 6 IPFIP 5.15 → 5.30 (+0.14)K% 29.7% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.860	25.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.32%	—	×0.900	21.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 5.15 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 57 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.96 (+0.84)K% 33.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.08%	—	×0.810	26.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.29%	—	×1.100	19.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.13%	÷1.048	×1.200	1.29%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 17 IPFIP 3.30 → 5.12 (+1.82)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.180	19.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.891	×1.300	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 14 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.47 (+0.71)K% 30.2% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.16%	—	×0.810	24.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.46%	—	×1.100	19.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.011	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefry Yan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	30.4%	14.9%	2.7%	—	4.53	29.0%	14.3%	30	+0.24	—	—	—
Anthony Gose L 2021 · 4.69 FIP	30	SU	4.69	29.9%	19.7%	2.9%	.250	4.08	27.7%	15.5%	66	-0.61	3.78	233	77
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	70
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	68
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	554	67
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	66
James Pazos L 2021 · 4.41 FIP	30	SU	4.41	26.0%	12.0%	3.6%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	261	66
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	66
Ron Mahay L 2001 · 5.36 FIP	30	SU	5.36	27.9%	16.3%	4.7%	.227	3.89	19.5%	11.2%	127	-1.47	3.14	568	66
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	65
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	65
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	63
Tim Byrdak L 2005 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	23.7%	15.3%	0.8%	.329	4.31	22.0%	10.7%	100	+0.86	2.85	320	63
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	63
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	62
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	2.82	432	62
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2011 · 4.46 FIP	30	SU	4.46	28.3%	16.5%	3.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	1.63	287	61
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	61
Garrett Cleavinger L 2024 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	26.7%	11.7%	2.3%	.291	3.44	32.1%	23.3%	103	-0.16	2.92	424	60
Chris Nunn L 2021 · 4.72 FIP	30	SU	4.72	24.0%	19.2%	2.2%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	180	60
Doug Slaten L 2010 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	20.7%	9.8%	1.1%	.269	4.85	13.5%	3.1%	29	+1.63	3.22	139	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	29	29.1%	15.0%	1.13	4.46
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*