Bailey Ober
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 31
RHP
6'9" / 260 lbs
MLB
peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.29
FIP4.55
K%18.7%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1088.5
Whiff%
p1219.9%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p410.322
SL+3.0 (27%)
CH (37%)
SI (3%)
CU (2%)
FB-1.4 (34%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 6 | 4 | 28 | 111 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 4.7 | 21.4% | 3.4% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 6 | 4 | 28 | 111 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 4.7 | 31.5% | 2.7% | 28.8% | 1.8% | 3.21 | 1.85 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 14 | 14 | 75 | 294 | 88 | 9 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.1% | 3.6% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 3.84 | 2.97 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 14 | 14 | 75 | 294 | 88 | 9 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 29.9% | 3.1% | 26.9% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 79 | 296 | 100 | 9 | 2 | 93% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 3.5% | 22.8% | 0.7% | 0.69 | 1.73 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 79 | 296 | 100 | 9 | 2 | 93% | 5.6 | 33.8% | 3.0% | 30.7% | 0.7% | 0.69 | 1.23 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 108 | 444 | 117 | 24 | 20 | 100% | 4.5 | 25.8% | 5.5% | 20.3% | 4.5% | 3.99 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 108 | 444 | 117 | 24 | 20 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.4% | 5.4% | 20.9% | 4.5% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 73 | 289 | 70 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 2.77 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 73 | 289 | 70 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 19.4% | 2.4% | 3.22 | 3.00 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 167 | 667 | 171 | 35 | 23 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.2% | 5.3% | 19.9% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.52 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 167 | 667 | 171 | 35 | 23 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.6% | 5.2% | 20.4% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.47 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 179 | 709 | 191 | 43 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.9% | 6.1% | 20.9% | 3.8% | 3.98 | 3.66 | +3.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 179 | 709 | 191 | 43 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.9% | 6.1% | 20.9% | 3.8% | 3.98 | 3.65 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 657 | 129 | 32 | 31 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 4.87 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 657 | 129 | 32 | 31 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.6% | 4.9% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 4.87 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 15 | 15 | 80 | 336 | 57 | 19 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 55 | 17 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 5.8% | 12.9% | 4.2% | 4.29 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 55 | 17 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 5.8% | 12.9% | 4.2% | 4.29 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 149 | 628 | 112 | 36 | 26 | — | — | 17.8% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 4.52 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 141 | 594 | 112 | 36 | 26 | — | — | 18.8% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 4.79 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 107 | 36 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 4.94 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 94 | 36 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 5.23 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 116 | 488 | 81 | 35 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 5.53 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 107 | 36 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 4.94 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 94 | 36 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 5.23 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 82 | 35 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 5.53 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 204 | 1139 | 4715 | 992 | 277 | 203 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 4.49 | 4.43 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 828 | 174 | 49 | 36 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 4.49 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 179 | 176 | 944 | 3803 | 889 | 195 | 132 | 98% | 5.3 | 23.4% | 5.1% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.70 | 3.68 | +18.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 806 | 188 | 41 | 28 | 98% | 5.3 | 23.4% | 5.1% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.70 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Ober (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | — | 5.41 | 17.6% | 10.9% | 381 | +0.81 | — | — | — |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 48 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 48 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 48 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.13 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 4.81 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 510 | +0.68 | 3.72 | 918 | 47 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.89 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .276 | 4.56 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 869 | 46 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 45 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 45 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 45 |
| Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.02 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .273 | 4.18 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.66 | 720 | 45 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 45 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 44 |
| Jason Hammel R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 44 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 44 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 44 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 44 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 44 |
| Dan Haren R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 44 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 44 |
| Chris Smith R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.55 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 285 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 413 | 43 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 122 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 133 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 1.75 | 4.97 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |