Bailey Ober — OGILVIE

Bailey Ober P Minnesota Twins

Age 31 RHP 6'9" / 260 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.27

FIP4.54

K%18.3%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5560

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.0

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SL+3.0 (30%)

CH (34%)

SI (3%)

CU (2%)

FB-1.4 (35%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.2M
2027	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-0.9M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	21.4%	3.4%	18.1%	2.5%	3.21	3.10	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	31.5%	2.7%	28.8%	1.8%	3.21	1.85	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	3.6%	18.5%	2.7%	3.84	3.15	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	29.9%	3.1%	26.9%	2.4%	3.84	2.33	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.8%	0.69	1.77	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	33.8%	3.0%	30.7%	0.7%	0.69	1.23	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	25.8%	5.5%	20.3%	4.5%	3.99	4.07	+1.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	26.4%	5.4%	20.9%	4.5%	3.99	4.00	+1.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	22.5%	4.8%	17.6%	1.8%	3.22	2.78	+1.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	24.2%	4.8%	19.4%	2.4%	3.22	3.00	+1.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.0%	5.2%	19.8%	3.4%	3.29	3.53	+2.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.0%	5.2%	19.8%	3.4%	3.29	3.53	+2.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.2%	20.4%	3.4%	3.29	3.47	+2.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+2.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+2.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.65	+2.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.6%	4.9%	14.8%	4.7%	4.87	4.65	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			137	137	735	3014	689	167	121	100%	5.4	22.9%	5.5%	17.3%	4.0%	4.11	4.05	+7.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	24	24	126	534	91	34	19	100%	5.2	17.1%	6.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.50	4.50	+0.6
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	24	24	126	534	91	34	19	100%	5.2	17.1%	6.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.50	4.50	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A+ RAW	MIN	1	1	3	16	1	0	1	100%	3.3	6.2%	0.0%	6.2%	6.2%	8.10	6.00	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	MIN	1	1	5	20	5	0	0	100%	5.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	7.20	0.99	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	MIN	22	22	118	498	85	34	18	100%	5.4	17.1%	6.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.28	4.51	+0.5
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	MIN	22	22	118	498	85	34	18	100%	5.4	17.1%	6.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.28	4.51	+0.5
ROS	31	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	14	57	10	4	2	100%	6.8	18.3%	6.2%	12.1%	4.0%	4.27	4.54	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	MIN	2	2	14	59	11	4	2	100%	7.0	18.3%	6.2%	12.1%	4.0%	4.28	4.55	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	140	591	101	38	21	—	—	17.2%	6.4%	10.8%	3.6%	4.48	4.50	+0.6
FULL	31	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	131	554	101	38	21	—	—	18.3%	6.8%	11.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.52	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	138	584	104	39	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.7%	11.2%	4.1%	4.85	5.06	-0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	127	536	91	38	23	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.4%	5.15	5.34	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	138	583	104	39	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.7%	11.2%	4.1%	4.86	5.07	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	127	536	91	38	24	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.4%	5.16	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	184	1014	4191	895	247	171	100%	5.5	21.4%	5.9%	15.5%	4.1%	4.35	4.28	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	827	177	49	34	100%	5.5	21.4%	5.9%	15.5%	4.1%	4.35	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		188	185	990	4001	921	209	138	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	3.5%	3.72	3.72	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	809	186	42	28	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	3.5%	3.72	3.72	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Ober (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.4%	5.4%	4.1%	—	5.19	17.5%	10.6%	265	+0.58	—	—	—
Johnny Cueto R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	31	SP	4.34	21.0%	7.9%	3.7%	.314	4.70	19.1%	10.6%	132	+0.36	2.85	1,148	72
Andrew Cashner R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	31	SP	4.85	14.5%	9.1%	3.3%	.307	4.50	17.0%	7.9%	150	-0.35	3.64	786	70
Kyle Gibson R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	31	SP	3.97	22.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.325	3.91	20.2%	12.4%	417	-0.06	3.56	1,689	68
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,146	68
Jake Arrieta R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	31	SP	3.94	23.1%	7.4%	3.4%	.271	4.17	18.6%	10.5%	353	+0.23	2.13	1,046	67
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	3.13	942	67
Félix Hernández R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	22.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.278	5.08	18.0%	9.7%	227	+0.52	3.60	682	67
Yovani Gallardo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.3%	9.9%	4.3%	.283	4.33	14.9%	5.3%	144	-0.98	3.90	577	66
Jeremy Hellickson R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	31	SP	3.90	17.6%	5.1%	3.0%	.244	4.93	17.8%	9.3%	56	+1.03	3.74	646	66
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	3.86	918	65
Iván Nova R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP	4.52	16.7%	4.5%	4.1%	.283	4.78	13.7%	7.6%	206	+0.26	4.03	810	64
Mike Leake R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	31	SP	5.05	15.2%	3.0%	5.2%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	937	63
Lance Lynn R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	31	SP	3.51	23.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.330	3.13	27.5%	20.7%	449	-0.38	2.85	1,390	62
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	62
Jhoulys Chacín R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	31	SP	5.49	21.5%	9.6%	5.5%	.301	4.41	17.2%	7.2%	112	-1.08	3.71	887	62
Jordan Zimmermann R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	31	SP	4.96	14.4%	5.9%	4.2%	.325	4.70	18.3%	13.6%	243	-0.26	3.57	731	61
Anthony DeSclafani R 2021 · 3.64 FIP	31	SP	3.64	22.5%	6.1%	3.0%	.263	4.30	18.8%	14.1%	119	+0.66	3.38	981	59
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	59
Jeff Samardzija R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SP	3.88	20.1%	6.0%	3.1%	.282	4.21	21.1%	15.5%	451	+0.33	3.62	885	58
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	138	18.9%	6.3%	1.62	4.76
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75