Bailey Ober
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.8
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'9" / 260 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.60
xFIP4.15
SIERA4.11
K%22.4%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%16.7%
IP145
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1088.8
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
SL+3.0 (26%)
CH (36%)
SI (3%)
CU (3%)
FB-1.4 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 6 | 4 | 28 | 111 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 21.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.10 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 14 | 14 | 75 | 294 | 88 | 9 | 7 | 22.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.21 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 14 | 13 | 79 | 296 | 100 | 9 | 2 | 26.3% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.69 | 1.77 | +3.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 24 | 24 | 108 | 444 | 117 | 24 | 20 | 25.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.99 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 15 | 15 | 73 | 289 | 70 | 14 | 7 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 2.72 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 167 | 667 | 171 | 35 | 23 | 25.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.29 | 3.70 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 179 | 709 | 191 | 43 | 27 | 26.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.98 | 3.72 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 29 | 155 | 657 | 129 | 32 | 31 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.87 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 4 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 5.49 | 3.75 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 94 | 28 | 19 | 19.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.96 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 135 | 571 | 108 | 33 | 21 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 95 | 30 | 20 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.63 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 81 | 27 | 18 | 18.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.83 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 69 | 25 | 17 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 58 | 23 | 15 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.15 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 54 | 18 | 13 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.15 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 165 | 883 | 3552 | 845 | 179 | 125 | 23.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 3.67 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 804 | 191 | 41 | 28 | 23.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Ober (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 20.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | — | 4.95 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 322 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.53 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .289 | 4.28 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 469 | 48 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.32 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.49 | 4.03 | 365 | 48 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 4.39 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.32 | 4.07 | 262 | 48 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.95 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.27 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.32 | 2.03 | 804 | 47 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.88 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 500 | 47 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .268 | 4.81 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.49 | 4.32 | 287 | 47 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 47 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.31 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 251 | 46 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.17 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .283 | 4.28 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -0.89 | 3.91 | 577 | 46 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.84 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.44 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 869 | 46 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.21 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | .308 | 4.94 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 510 | +0.73 | 3.70 | 918 | 45 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.02 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.83 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.02 | 277 | 45 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.96 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .307 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.48 | 3.62 | 786 | 45 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.36 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 5.19 | 13.2% | 8.8% | 55 | +0.83 | 4.36 | 363 | 44 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.65 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.1% | .289 | 5.60 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.95 | 4.65 | 261 | 44 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.14 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.73 | 2.54 | 433 | 44 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.19 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .213 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.37 | 4.10 | 710 | 44 |
| Nestor Molina R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.26 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 401 | 44 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 43 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.71 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .285 | 4.61 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +0.90 | 3.71 | 393 | 43 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.541 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $5M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $6M | +$0.0M | ||