Bailey Ober

P Minnesota Twins

Age 32 RHP 6'9" / 260 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBMIN	31	31	179	3.98	3.65	26.9%	6.1%	3.8
2025	30	MIX2 levels	29	29	155	4.87	4.65	19.6%	4.9%	1.3	K 19.2% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.73
2026	31	MIX3 levels	27	26	139	4.65	4.49	17.1%	6.2%	1.5	K 17.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIN	17	17	101	4.61	4.87	17.8%	6.1%	0.6
2028PROJ	33	MLBMIN	13	13	78	4.93	5.15	17.0%	6.5%	0.2
2029PROJ	34	MLBMIN	9	9	55	5.24	5.45	16.1%	7.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs34

K%15

FB Velo10

Form4.37 ERA (proj 4.61) · K 21.2% (proj 17.8%) · BB 7.7% (proj 6.1%) · last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsMiguel González (age 32) · Mike Fiers (age 32) · Orlando Hernandez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.61

FIP4.87

K%17.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.0

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	21.4%	3.4%	18.1%	2.5%	3.21	3.10	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	31.5%	2.7%	28.8%	1.8%	3.21	1.85	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	3.6%	18.5%	2.7%	3.84	3.15	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	29.9%	3.1%	26.9%	2.4%	3.84	2.33	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.8%	0.69	1.77	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	33.8%	3.0%	30.7%	0.7%	0.69	1.23	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	25.8%	5.5%	20.3%	4.5%	3.99	4.07	+1.7
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	26.4%	5.4%	20.9%	4.5%	3.99	4.00	+1.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	22.5%	4.8%	17.6%	1.8%	3.22	2.78	+2.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	24.2%	4.8%	19.4%	2.4%	3.22	3.00	+2.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.1%	5.2%	20.0%	3.4%	3.29	3.52	+3.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.2%	20.4%	3.4%	3.29	3.47	+3.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+3.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+3.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.65	+3.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+1.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.6%	4.9%	14.8%	4.7%	4.87	4.65	+1.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.65	4.53	+1.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.65	4.53	+1.4
2026	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.65	4.49	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			140	139	749	3077	700	170	124	99%	5.3	22.7%	5.5%	17.2%	4.0%	4.15	4.06	+11.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIN	17	17	101	426	76	26	16	100%	5.9	17.8%	6.1%	11.7%	3.9%	4.61	4.87	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	78	329	56	22	14	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.5%	10.4%	4.1%	4.93	5.15	+0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	55	231	37	16	10	100%	6.1	16.1%	7.0%	9.0%	4.4%	5.24	5.45	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	56	22	14	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.5%	10.4%	4.1%	4.93	5.15	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	55	232	37	16	10	100%	6.1	16.1%	7.0%	9.0%	4.4%	5.24	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	161	881	3638	793	208	148	99%	5.4	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	4.1%	4.28	4.21	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	825	180	47	34	99%	5.4	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	4.1%	4.28	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		191	187	1003	4064	933	212	142	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.7%	3.5%	3.75	3.73	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	810	186	42	28	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.7%	3.5%	3.75	3.73	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 5 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.28 (+0.30)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 9 IPFIP 2.84 → 2.93 (+0.08)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×0.900	2.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.253	×1.100	2.66%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 23 IPFIP 2.21 → 2.51 (+0.30)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.009	×1.100	1.21%

Result: FIP 2.21 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 10 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.91 (+1.13)K% 35.1% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.880	30.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.050	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷0.881	×1.100	6.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 7 IPFIP 3.78 → 5.05 (+1.28)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.740	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 16 IPFIP 1.35 → 1.72 (+0.38)K% 32.3% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.31%	—	×0.880	28.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.121	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.35 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 46 IPFIP 1.30 → 1.92 (+0.62)K% 30.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.770	23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.41%	—	×1.150	3.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.362	×1.250	0.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 1.30 → 1.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 24 IPFIP 0.64 → 1.45 (+0.81)K% 40.5% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.48%	—	×0.810	32.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.38%	—	×1.100	2.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.64 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Ober (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	5.27	16.6%	9.9%	133	+0.40	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	905	79
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	2.83	1,140	72
Orlando Hernandez R 2002 · 3.78 FIP	32	SP	3.78	18.6%	5.6%	2.8%	.258	4.26	18.9%	9.8%	213	+0.48	3.35	1,315	65
Elmer Dessens R 2003 · 4.25 FIP	32	SP	4.25	14.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.319	3.98	15.0%	9.6%	248	-0.27	3.55	1,167	64
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	63
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	63
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,170	62
Jeremy Guthrie R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	32	SP	4.18	14.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.278	4.68	13.2%	7.1%	596	+0.50	4.08	1,834	59
Ryan Franklin R 2005 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	11.2%	7.0%	3.4%	.282	4.36	13.7%	7.8%	236	-0.53	3.12	1,201	57
Miles Mikolas R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	32	SP	4.27	16.4%	5.5%	3.4%	.269	4.09	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.18	3.13	1,386	52
Cory Lidle R 2004 · 4.34 FIP	32	SP	4.34	13.8%	6.1%	3.0%	.281	4.16	16.3%	10.6%	355	-0.18	3.48	1,318	52
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	51
Steve Parris R 2000 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	13.6%	7.7%	3.5%	.304	5.49	10.9%	3.0%	225	+0.65	3.60	753	51
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	49
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	48
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.12	728	48
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.25	500	47
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	46
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	46
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	109	21.4%	5.8%	1.57	4.32
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24