Kyle McGowin
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 202 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION44 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.70
FIP4.83
xFIP4.50
SIERA3.87
K%19.8%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.3%
IP45
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p6627.8%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p830.280
SL+1.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 154 | 646 | 125 | 50 | 16 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 27 | 27 | 142 | 629 | 130 | 54 | 20 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 5.83 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | 19 | 19 | 98 | 451 | 75 | 40 | 16 | 13.6% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 5.95 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 28 | 24 | 149 | 585 | 160 | 36 | 14 | 22.7% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 2.95 | 3.27 | +3.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 24 | 18 | 109 | 456 | 122 | 29 | 17 | 23.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 4.38 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 9 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 34.0% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 4.91 | 3.64 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 36 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 3.40 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 16 | 9 | 62 | 275 | 58 | 29 | 14 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 7.36 | 6.81 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 15 | 15 | 75 | 321 | 72 | 26 | 9 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.20 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 139 | 841 | 3576 | 688 | 299 | 130 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.54 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 850 | 164 | 71 | 31 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle McGowin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.26 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 76 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Alfredo Simon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 75 |
| Aaron Harang R 2029 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 75 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.48 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 7.6% | 167 | +1.02 | 4.04 | 710 | 75 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 74 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .312 | 4.34 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 127 | +0.14 | 3.43 | 645 | 74 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 73 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .250 | 4.69 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 59 | -0.18 | 3.72 | 918 | 73 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 73 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 72 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.51 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 4.7% | .296 | 4.91 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 336 | -0.60 | 4.36 | 720 | 72 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 69 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .254 | 7.23 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 89 | +2.95 | 3.69 | 521 | 69 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .241 | 5.78 | 12.7% | 4.4% | 133 | +1.50 | 3.66 | 720 | 68 |
| Kyle Davies R 2023 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 68 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 68 |
| Colby Lewis R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.91 | 16.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.70 | 15.5% | 9.6% | 116 | +0.79 | 3.91 | 321 | 68 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.00 | 15.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | .304 | 4.66 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 389 | +0.66 | 3.06 | 1,241 | 68 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 67 |
| Dan Haren R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 65 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.53 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .235 | 8.52 | 7.8% | 2.6% | 17 | +3.99 | 3.63 | 885 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.