Alex Young
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.08
FIP4.38
xFIP4.23
SIERA4.00
K%22.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.9%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1088.7
Whiff%
p9031.7%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p380.326
FB (39%)
SI (38%)
CU (14%)
CH (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | 21 | 20 | 119 | 500 | 93 | 37 | 11 | 14.1% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.56 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Jackson Generals | 27 | 24 | 137 | 594 | 103 | 58 | 12 | 14.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 29 | 21 | 131 | 566 | 109 | 38 | 15 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 37 | 23 | 138 | 607 | 135 | 46 | 20 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 15 | 7 | 46 | 204 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 19.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.44 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 50 | 2 | 65 | 300 | 55 | 27 | 13 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 6.23 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 58 | 1 | 62 | 260 | 71 | 19 | 5 | 25.0% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 2.92 | 3.10 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 65 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 54 | 20 | 10 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 3.72 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 48 | 0 | 48 | 196 | 43 | 18 | 4 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 2.83 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 17.5% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 351 | 99 | 802 | 3472 | 623 | 294 | 107 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 25 | 200 | 866 | 155 | 73 | 27 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Young (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 104 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 78 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 76 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 75 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 75 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.68 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +0.89 | 2.42 | 129 | 74 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 72 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 72 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 72 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 72 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 71 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 70 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .254 | 3.84 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 62 | +0.17 | 1.69 | 277 | 70 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 70 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 70 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 70 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 69 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.44 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .376 | 4.89 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.45 | 4.10 | 424 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.42 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 241 | 69 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.