Carlos Rodón P New York Yankees
Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.1 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8291vR 100
ERA3.63
FIP3.65
K%26.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
K: +6.6 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+7KBB: -5.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: +8.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+9CONTACTSTAM: +17.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+18STAMTotal WAR: +2.86 (130 IP)+2.9WAR
0.02.04.01.11.61.0-$35M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—60
STUF7070
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†6060
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p7526.8%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
FB+14.1 (52%)
SL+12.7 (28%)
CH+6.4 (16%)
SI (10%)
CU (4%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2015
Service   10.977 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2027
NTC
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$11M+1.1$9M-$2M
2027Ext$27M+1.6$12M-$12M
2028Ext$27M+1.0$7M-$15M
Totals $65M $28M -$29M
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$29M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201522MIX2 levels2825149650152751189%5.322.9%11.7%11.2%1.8%3.743.61+3.1
201522MIX2 levels2825149650152751189%5.323.4%11.5%11.8%1.7%3.743.53+3.3
201623MIX2 levels29291697331715324100%5.823.5%7.1%16.4%3.1%4.063.73+3.3
201623MIX2 levels29291697331715324100%5.823.3%7.2%16.1%3.3%4.063.86+3.0
201724MIX3 levels161686379934013100%5.423.6%10.6%13.0%3.2%5.324.20+0.9
201724MIX3 levels161686379934013100%5.424.5%10.6%14.0%3.4%5.324.29+0.8
201825MIX3 levels24241385781185915100%5.819.5%10.6%8.9%2.6%3.844.21+1.9
201825MIX3 levels24241385781185915100%5.820.4%10.2%10.2%2.6%3.844.08+2.1
201926MLBChicago White Sox773515846174100%5.029.1%10.8%18.4%2.4%5.193.35+0.5
201926MLBChicago White Sox773515846174100%5.029.1%10.8%18.4%2.5%5.193.42+0.5
202027MLBChicago White Sox4283563150%1.917.1%8.6%8.6%2.9%8.224.31+0.0
202027MLBChicago White Sox4283563150%1.917.1%8.6%8.6%2.9%8.224.40+0.0
202128MLBChicago White Sox24241335341853513100%5.534.6%6.6%28.1%2.4%2.372.30+4.8
202128MLBChicago White Sox24241335341853513100%5.534.6%6.6%28.1%2.4%2.372.38+4.7
202229MLBSan Francisco Giants31311787102375212100%5.733.4%7.3%26.1%1.8%2.882.22+6.6
202229MLBSan Francisco Giants31311787102375212100%5.733.4%7.3%26.1%1.7%2.882.19+6.7
202330MIX3 levels171775324813115100%4.422.4%9.8%12.6%4.9%6.005.13-0.2
202330MIX3 levels171775324813115100%4.425.0%9.6%15.4%4.6%6.004.78+0.1
202431MLBNew York Yankees32321757361955731100%5.526.5%7.7%18.8%3.9%3.963.99+2.9
202431MLBNew York Yankees32321757361955731100%5.526.5%7.7%18.8%4.2%3.964.15+2.6
202532MLBNew York Yankees33331957892037322100%5.925.7%9.3%16.5%2.6%3.093.52+4.3
202532MLBNew York Yankees33331957892037322100%5.925.7%9.3%16.5%2.8%3.093.61+4.1
▸ 2026 Season
202633MLBNew York Yankees12126225868296100%5.226.8%13.4%13.4%1.5%3.323.38+0.9
ROS33MLBNYY11116728475308100%6.126.4%10.5%16.0%2.7%3.633.65+0.8
ROS33MLBNYY11116728375308100%6.126.4%10.5%16.0%2.8%3.693.71+0.8
2026 TOT33MLBNYY——1305421435914——26.4%10.8%15.6%2.5%3.483.52+2.8
2026 FULL33MLBNYY——1144801435914——29.8%12.2%17.6%2.9%4.013.71+2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202734MLBNYY22221295461396016100%5.925.5%10.9%14.5%3.0%4.214.34+1.6
202835MLBNYY19191164901205616100%6.124.5%11.5%13.0%3.3%4.494.68+1.0
202936MLBNYY17171034341025216100%6.023.5%12.1%11.4%3.7%4.825.05+0.4
203037MLBNYY151590378854815100%6.022.4%12.8%9.7%4.1%5.205.45-0.3
202734MLBNYY22221295451396017100%5.925.5%10.9%14.5%3.1%4.274.40+1.5
202835MLBNYY19191164901205617100%6.124.5%11.5%13.0%3.4%4.564.75+0.9
202936MLBNYY17171034351025317100%6.123.5%12.1%11.4%3.8%4.905.13+0.3
203037MLBNYY151590380854816100%6.022.4%12.8%9.7%4.2%5.285.53-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—32632118337705198274523698%5.625.7%9.7%16.1%3.1%3.953.83+33.6
/ 200 IP—3635200840216812698%5.625.7%9.7%16.1%3.1%3.953.83+3.7
Career—25725214035884153753316198%5.526.1%9.1%17.1%2.7%3.753.54+30.5
/ 200 IP—3736200839219762398%5.526.1%9.1%17.1%2.7%3.753.54+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Carlos Rodón (OGILVIE) —— 4.09 26.1%8.8%3.1%— 4.66 24.6%13.1%348 +0.57 ———
Jorge De La Rosa L 2027 · 3.68 FIP 34 SP 3.68 21.1%9.8%2.1%.284 4.20 18.4%8.9%256 +0.52 3.68 405 47
Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.88 FIP 33 SP 3.88 23.6%7.5%3.3%.306 4.18 19.9%12.5%414 +0.30 2.74 1,144 45
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP 33 SP 3.25 28.0%6.0%3.2%.308 4.04 22.6%13.3%209 +0.79 3.25 1,019 43
C.J. Wilson L 2027 · 3.77 FIP 34 SP 3.77 19.9%8.0%2.4%.272 — ——— — 3.77 132 42
CC Sabathia L 2028 · 4.30 FIP 35 SP 4.30 18.9%6.5%3.6%.311 3.96 20.1%12.1%481 -0.34 3.75 756 42
J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.84 FIP 33 SP 3.84 20.5%7.5%2.8%.265 4.04 23.3%16.2%484 +0.20 3.28 1,053 41
Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.28 FIP 33 SP 4.28 22.3%6.1%4.2%.287 5.11 18.0%10.9%114 +0.83 2.42 807 40
Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP 33 SP 4.30 19.4%7.2%3.5%.279 4.87 20.5%15.3%68 +0.57 3.68 549 38
Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP 36 SP 4.65 18.1%8.3%3.7%.339 — ——— — 4.65 109 38
Cole Hamels L 2026 · 4.30 FIP 33 SP 4.30 17.1%8.5%2.9%.244 3.94 23.3%14.8%332 -0.36 3.22 893 38
Clayton Richard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP 33 SP 4.05 17.6%6.2%3.0%.343 4.78 14.7%5.9%204 +0.73 3.58 574 37
David Price L 2026 · 3.40 FIP 33 SP 3.40 27.9%7.0%3.2%.332 3.92 19.4%13.1%114 +0.52 2.65 922 36
Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP 33 SP 4.40 16.8%9.2%2.8%.292 4.68 12.4%7.2%186 +0.28 4.40 408 36
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP 34 SP 3.68 16.8%7.1%2.0%.307 — ——— — 3.68 119 34
Shota Imanaga L 2025 · 4.61 FIP 32 SP 4.61 24.0%6.2%5.0%.254 — ——— — 3.58 426 34
Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP 31 SP 3.88 16.2%5.8%2.6%.339 — ——— — 3.88 129 33
Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP 34 SP 3.85 14.2%6.9%2.0%.298 4.45 10.4%3.0%129 +0.60 3.85 237 33
Eric Stults L 2028 · 4.25 FIP 35 SP 4.25 14.5%5.9%2.9%.266 — ——— — 4.25 138 32
Felix Doubront L 2024 · 3.39 FIP 31 SP 3.39 17.6%5.0%2.1%.354 — ——— — 3.39 291 32
Mauricio Lara L 2029 · 3.57 FIP 36 SP 3.57 13.9%6.9%1.4%.310 3.70 12.1%5.1%220 +0.13 3.57 444 32

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION511424.6%11.1%1.304.50
Nate Karns ('17)39624.2%9.3%1.224.24
Triston McKenzie ('24)410526.0%9.4%1.523.94
James Kaprielian ('23)310520.5%9.6%1.264.58
Patrick Sandoval ('24)68922.7%10.1%0.924.01
Ian Anderson ('22)39122.5%10.4%0.963.97
Zack Godley ('20)69422.1%9.5%1.134.86