Carlos Rodón — OGILVIE

Carlos Rodón P New York Yankees

Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.1 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8291vR 100

ERA3.63

FIP3.65

K%26.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF7070

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB+14.1 (52%)

SL+12.7 (28%)

CH+6.4 (16%)

SI (10%)

CU (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$11M	+1.1	$9M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$27M	+1.6	$12M	-$12M
2028	Ext	$27M	+1.0	$7M	-$15M
Totals		$65M		$28M	-$29M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$29M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	28	25	149	650	152	75	11	89%	5.3	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	1.8%	3.74	3.61	+3.1
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	28	25	149	650	152	75	11	89%	5.3	23.4%	11.5%	11.8%	1.7%	3.74	3.53	+3.3
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	29	29	169	733	171	53	24	100%	5.8	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	3.1%	4.06	3.73	+3.3
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	29	29	169	733	171	53	24	100%	5.8	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	3.3%	4.06	3.86	+3.0
2017	24	MIX	3 levels	16	16	86	379	93	40	13	100%	5.4	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.2%	5.32	4.20	+0.9
2017	24	MIX	3 levels	16	16	86	379	93	40	13	100%	5.4	24.5%	10.6%	14.0%	3.4%	5.32	4.29	+0.8
2018	25	MIX	3 levels	24	24	138	578	118	59	15	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	2.6%	3.84	4.21	+1.9
2018	25	MIX	3 levels	24	24	138	578	118	59	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.08	+2.1
2019	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	7	7	35	158	46	17	4	100%	5.0	29.1%	10.8%	18.4%	2.4%	5.19	3.35	+0.5
2019	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	7	7	35	158	46	17	4	100%	5.0	29.1%	10.8%	18.4%	2.5%	5.19	3.42	+0.5
2020	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	4	2	8	35	6	3	1	50%	1.9	17.1%	8.6%	8.6%	2.9%	8.22	4.31	+0.0
2020	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	4	2	8	35	6	3	1	50%	1.9	17.1%	8.6%	8.6%	2.9%	8.22	4.40	+0.0
2021	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	24	24	133	534	185	35	13	100%	5.5	34.6%	6.6%	28.1%	2.4%	2.37	2.30	+4.8
2021	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	24	24	133	534	185	35	13	100%	5.5	34.6%	6.6%	28.1%	2.4%	2.37	2.38	+4.7
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	31	31	178	710	237	52	12	100%	5.7	33.4%	7.3%	26.1%	1.8%	2.88	2.22	+6.6
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	31	31	178	710	237	52	12	100%	5.7	33.4%	7.3%	26.1%	1.7%	2.88	2.19	+6.7
2023	30	MIX	3 levels	17	17	75	324	81	31	15	100%	4.4	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	4.9%	6.00	5.13	-0.2
2023	30	MIX	3 levels	17	17	75	324	81	31	15	100%	4.4	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	4.6%	6.00	4.78	+0.1
2024	31	MLB	New York Yankees	32	32	175	736	195	57	31	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	3.9%	3.96	3.99	+2.9
2024	31	MLB	New York Yankees	32	32	175	736	195	57	31	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	4.2%	3.96	4.15	+2.6
2025	32	MLB	New York Yankees	33	33	195	789	203	73	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	2.6%	3.09	3.52	+4.3
2025	32	MLB	New York Yankees	33	33	195	789	203	73	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	2.8%	3.09	3.61	+4.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	New York Yankees	12	12	62	258	68	29	6	100%	5.2	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	1.5%	3.32	3.38	+0.9
ROS	33	MLB	NYY	11	11	67	284	75	30	8	100%	6.1	26.4%	10.5%	16.0%	2.7%	3.63	3.65	+0.8
ROS	33	MLB	NYY	11	11	67	283	75	30	8	100%	6.1	26.4%	10.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.69	3.71	+0.8
2026 TOT	33	MLB	NYY	—	—	130	542	143	59	14	—	—	26.4%	10.8%	15.6%	2.5%	3.48	3.52	+2.8
2026 FULL	33	MLB	NYY	—	—	114	480	143	59	14	—	—	29.8%	12.2%	17.6%	2.9%	4.01	3.71	+2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	NYY	22	22	129	546	139	60	16	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.9%	14.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.34	+1.6
2028	35	MLB	NYY	19	19	116	490	120	56	16	100%	6.1	24.5%	11.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.49	4.68	+1.0
2027	34	MLB	NYY	22	22	129	545	139	60	17	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.9%	14.5%	3.1%	4.27	4.40	+1.5
2028	35	MLB	NYY	19	19	116	490	120	56	17	100%	6.1	24.5%	11.5%	13.0%	3.4%	4.56	4.75	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			294	289	1641	6893	1796	644	203	98%	5.6	26.1%	9.3%	16.7%	3.0%	3.82	3.70	+32.6
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	840	219	78	25	98%	5.6	26.1%	9.3%	16.7%	3.0%	3.82	3.70	+4.0
Career	—			257	252	1403	5884	1537	533	161	98%	5.5	26.1%	9.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.75	3.54	+30.5
/ 200 IP	—			37	36	200	839	219	76	23	98%	5.5	26.1%	9.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.75	3.54	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodón (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	26.1%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.50	25.0%	13.8%	246	+0.41	—	—	—
Jorge De La Rosa L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	21.1%	9.8%	2.1%	.284	4.20	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.52	3.68	405	47
Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.88 FIP	33	SP	3.88	23.6%	7.5%	3.3%	.306	4.18	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.74	1,144	45
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP	33	SP	3.25	28.0%	6.0%	3.2%	.308	4.04	22.6%	13.3%	209	+0.79	3.25	1,019	43
C.J. Wilson L 2027 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	19.9%	8.0%	2.4%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	132	42
CC Sabathia L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	35	SP	4.30	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.96	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.75	756	42
J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.04	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.20	3.28	1,053	41
Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.11	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.83	2.42	807	40
Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.87	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.57	3.68	549	38
Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP	36	SP	4.65	18.1%	8.3%	3.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	109	38
Cole Hamels L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	17.1%	8.5%	2.9%	.244	3.94	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.36	3.22	893	38
Clayton Richard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	33	SP	4.05	17.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.343	4.78	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.73	3.58	574	37
David Price L 2026 · 3.40 FIP	33	SP	3.40	27.9%	7.0%	3.2%	.332	3.92	19.4%	13.1%	114	+0.52	2.65	922	36
Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	33	SP	4.40	16.8%	9.2%	2.8%	.292	4.68	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.28	4.40	408	36
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	119	34
Shota Imanaga L 2025 · 4.61 FIP	32	SP	4.61	24.0%	6.2%	5.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	426	34
Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	31	SP	3.88	16.2%	5.8%	2.6%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	129	33
Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP	34	SP	3.85	14.2%	6.9%	2.0%	.298	4.45	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.60	3.85	237	33
Eric Stults L 2028 · 4.25 FIP	35	SP	4.25	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	138	32
Felix Doubront L 2024 · 3.39 FIP	31	SP	3.39	17.6%	5.0%	2.1%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	291	32
Mauricio Lara L 2029 · 3.57 FIP	36	SP	3.57	13.9%	6.9%	1.4%	.310	3.70	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.13	3.57	444	32

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	125	25.4%	10.4%	1.20	4.25
Nate Karns ('17)	3	96	24.2%	9.3%	1.22	4.24
Danny Salazar ('17)	3	142	28.1%	9.0%	1.12	3.79
Triston McKenzie ('24)	4	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Ian Anderson ('22)	3	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	3	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kyle Wright ('23)	3	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97