Carlos Rodón
P
New York Yankees
+0.9
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 33
LHP
6'2" / 255 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA4.10
FIP4.14
xFIP3.89
SIERA3.92
K%25.6%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%16.8%
IP162
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
FB+14.1 (52%)
SL+12.7 (28%)
CH+6.4 (16%)
SI (10%)
CU (4%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 28 | 25 | 149 | 650 | 152 | 75 | 11 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 3.74 | 3.57 | +2.9 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 169 | 733 | 171 | 53 | 24 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 3.81 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 16 | 16 | 86 | 379 | 93 | 40 | 13 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 4.23 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 24 | 24 | 138 | 578 | 118 | 59 | 15 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 7 | 35 | 158 | 46 | 17 | 4 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 5.19 | 3.33 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.22 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 24 | 24 | 133 | 534 | 185 | 35 | 13 | 34.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 2.37 | 2.20 | +4.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 31 | 31 | 178 | 710 | 237 | 52 | 12 | 33.4% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 2.88 | 2.13 | +6.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 17 | 17 | 75 | 324 | 81 | 31 | 15 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 6.00 | 5.06 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 32 | 175 | 736 | 195 | 57 | 31 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.96 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 33 | 195 | 789 | 203 | 73 | 22 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 3.09 | 3.51 | +4.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 77 | 26 | 9 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 122 | 43 | 15 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 96 | 36 | 13 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 81 | 27 | 11 | 26.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 63 | 22 | 9 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | NYY | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 245 | 240 | 1341 | 5626 | 1468 | 498 | 156 | 26.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.54 | +26.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 839 | 219 | 74 | 23 | 26.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Rodón (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.31 | 25.4% | 16.3% | 280 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 31 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 31 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.45 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .332 | 3.66 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 114 | +0.21 | 2.58 | 922 | 30 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 29 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 28 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 28 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 27 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 27 |
| Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 129 | 27 |
| Felix Doubront L 2024 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 291 | 26 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 26 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 26 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 25 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.31 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 204 | +0.44 | 3.00 | 650 | 25 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2029 · 3.59 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.59 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.5% | .310 | 3.68 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.09 | 3.59 | 444 | 25 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.83 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.84 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 32 | +1.01 | 2.84 | 864 | 25 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 25 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.23 | 31.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 205 | 24 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 24 |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 24 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 10.977 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
NTC
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.9 | $4M | -$23M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +1.4 | $12M | -$15M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $27M | +0.9 | $4M | -$23M |
| Totals | $81M | $19M | -$62M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$62M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$62M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.