Carlos Rodón — OGILVIE

Carlos Rodón P New York Yankees

Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.76

FIP3.79

K%26.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—70

STUF7070

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p7429.0%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB+14.1 (52%)

SL+12.7 (28%)

CH+6.4 (16%)

SI (10%)

CU (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$27M	+0.8	$3M	-$21M
2028	Ext	$27M	+0.3	$1M	-$21M
Totals		$56M		$5M	-$44M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$44M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	149	650	152	75	11	89%	5.3	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	1.8%	3.74	3.63	+2.3
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	149	650	152	75	11	89%	5.3	23.4%	11.5%	11.8%	1.7%	3.74	3.53	+2.5
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	169	733	171	53	24	100%	5.8	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	3.2%	4.06	3.75	+2.3
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	169	733	171	53	24	100%	5.8	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	3.3%	4.06	3.86	+2.1
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	86	379	93	40	13	100%	5.4	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.2%	5.32	4.23	+0.7
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	86	379	93	40	13	100%	5.4	24.5%	10.6%	14.0%	3.4%	5.32	4.29	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	138	578	118	59	15	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	2.6%	3.84	4.23	+1.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	138	578	118	59	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.6%	3.84	4.08	+1.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	7	7	35	158	46	17	4	100%	5.0	29.1%	10.8%	18.4%	2.5%	5.19	3.37	+0.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	7	7	35	158	46	17	4	100%	5.0	29.1%	10.8%	18.4%	2.5%	5.19	3.42	+0.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	4	2	8	35	6	3	1	50%	1.9	17.1%	8.6%	8.6%	2.9%	8.22	4.31	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	4	2	8	35	6	3	1	50%	1.9	17.1%	8.6%	8.6%	2.9%	8.22	4.40	+0.0
2021	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	24	24	133	534	185	35	13	100%	5.5	34.6%	6.6%	28.1%	2.4%	2.37	2.32	+4.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	24	24	133	534	185	35	13	100%	5.5	34.6%	6.6%	28.1%	2.4%	2.37	2.38	+4.3
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	31	31	178	710	237	52	12	100%	5.7	33.4%	7.3%	26.1%	1.8%	2.88	2.21	+6.3
2022	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	31	31	178	710	237	52	12	100%	5.7	33.4%	7.3%	26.1%	1.7%	2.88	2.19	+6.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	75	324	81	31	15	100%	4.4	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	4.9%	6.00	5.15	-0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	75	324	81	31	15	100%	4.4	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	4.9%	6.00	5.15	-0.2
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	75	324	81	31	15	100%	4.4	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	4.6%	6.00	4.78	+0.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	175	736	195	57	31	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	3.9%	3.96	4.01	+1.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	32	175	736	195	57	31	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	3.9%	3.96	4.01	+1.9
2024	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	32	175	736	195	57	31	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	4.2%	3.96	4.15	+1.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	195	789	203	73	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	2.6%	3.09	3.53	+3.3
2025	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	195	789	203	73	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	2.6%	3.09	3.53	+3.3
2025	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	195	789	203	73	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	2.8%	3.09	3.61	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			245	240	1352	5668	1487	507	165	98%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.9%	3.69	3.61	+21.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	19	19	93	382	105	41	10	100%	4.9	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	1.9%	3.09	3.42	+1.7
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	19	19	93	382	105	41	10	100%	4.9	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	1.9%	3.09	3.42	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A+ RAW	NYY	1	1	4	16	4	1	0	100%	4.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.78	—
2026	33	AA RAW	NYY	2	2	10	36	15	1	1	100%	4.8	41.7%	2.8%	38.9%	2.8%	0.93	1.46	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	NYY	2	2	9	40	8	4	3	100%	4.5	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	7.5%	8.00	6.79	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	NYY	14	14	70	290	78	35	6	100%	5.0	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.94	3.49	+1.2
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	NYY	14	14	70	290	78	35	6	100%	5.0	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.94	3.49	+1.2
ROS	33	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	13	54	14	6	2	100%	6.5	26.6%	10.3%	16.3%	3.0%	3.76	3.79	+0.2
ROS	33	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	13	55	15	6	2	100%	6.5	26.6%	10.3%	16.3%	3.2%	3.87	3.90	+0.2
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	106	436	119	47	12	—	—	27.4%	10.7%	16.7%	2.7%	3.17	3.47	+1.9
FULL	33	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	83	351	119	47	12	—	—	34.0%	13.3%	20.7%	3.3%	4.06	3.74	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	129	546	140	59	17	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.22	4.35	+0.8
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	116	490	121	56	17	100%	6.1	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.4%	4.50	4.69	+0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	129	545	139	59	18	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.33	4.46	+0.8
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	116	490	121	56	18	100%	6.1	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.81	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		289	284	1611	6759	1762	627	202	98%	5.6	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	3.0%	3.81	3.71	+23.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	839	219	78	25	98%	5.6	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	3.0%	3.81	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		264	259	1434	6008	1570	544	166	98%	5.4	26.1%	9.1%	17.1%	2.8%	3.72	3.56	+22.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	838	219	76	23	98%	5.4	26.1%	9.1%	17.1%	2.8%	3.72	3.56	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodón (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	26.1%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.51	25.1%	14.1%	246	+0.41	—	—	—
Jon Lester L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	23.6%	7.5%	3.5%	.306	4.30	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.81	1,144	69
Mike Minor L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.10	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.80	2.43	807	61
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	58
Cole Hamels L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	17.1%	8.5%	2.8%	.244	4.05	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.23	3.21	893	57
David Price L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	33	SP	3.47	27.9%	7.0%	3.4%	.332	3.76	19.4%	13.1%	114	+0.29	2.65	922	56
J.A. Happ L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.05	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.21	3.37	1,053	53
Gio Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.91	22.2%	9.8%	32	+1.12	2.90	864	48
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	47
Clayton Richard L 2017 · 3.89 FIP	33	SP	3.89	17.6%	6.2%	2.7%	.343	4.67	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.78	3.56	574	45
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	42
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	42
Drew Smyly L 2022 · 4.16 FIP	33	SP	4.16	20.4%	5.8%	3.7%	.271	4.66	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.50	2.00	840	41
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	40
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	38
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	36
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,160	35
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	34
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	33
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	32
Felix Doubront L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	31	SP	3.44	17.6%	5.0%	2.1%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	291	32

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	129	25.5%	10.2%	1.22	4.25
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97