Alexander Cornielle

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAARPROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+MIL	22	20	104	4.31	3.59	22.5%	9.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.55
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	29	137	3.81	4.11	22.7%	11.9%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.56
2026	24	MIX5 levels	22	20	86	3.56	4.05	24.1%	13.0%	0.9	K 20.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	12	12	70	5.12	5.12	18.4%	13.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBNYY	10	10	59	5.12	5.12	19.0%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBNYY	13	13	80	5.09	5.11	19.2%	12.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.6M2032Arb-2$0.4M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsBritt Reames (age 26) · Chris Kachmar (age 24) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%18.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	3	0	4	16	4	4	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.16	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	3	0	4	16	4	4	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.10	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	6	41	182	60	18	4	55%	3.7	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	2.1%	5.71	4.01	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	6	41	182	60	18	4	55%	3.7	33.0%	9.9%	23.1%	2.2%	5.71	2.76	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	119	510	145	59	12	88%	4.8	21.2%	13.6%	7.5%	2.8%	3.03	4.57	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	119	510	145	59	12	88%	4.8	28.4%	11.6%	16.9%	2.4%	3.03	3.46	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	18	89	377	92	34	6	90%	4.5	18.8%	10.4%	8.4%	1.9%	4.55	3.88	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	18	89	377	92	34	6	90%	4.5	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	1.6%	4.55	3.06	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.55	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.55	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	22	20	104	435	98	39	10	91%	4.7	22.5%	9.0%	13.6%	2.3%	4.31	3.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	18.5%	12.8%	5.7%	2.6%	3.81	4.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	18.5%	12.8%	5.7%	2.6%	3.81	4.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	137	595	135	71	15	100%	4.7	22.7%	11.9%	10.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.11	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	20	86	377	91	49	9	91%	3.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.4%	3.56	4.22	+0.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	20	86	377	91	49	9	91%	3.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.4%	3.56	4.22	+0.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	5 levels	22	20	86	377	91	49	9	91%	3.9	24.1%	13.0%	11.1%	2.4%	3.56	4.05	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	7	2	1	1	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%	18.00	15.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	12	12	70	296	55	39	8	100%	5.8	18.4%	13.2%	5.2%	2.8%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	123	521	99	66	15	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.6%	6.4%	2.8%	5.02	5.02	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	513	99	63	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	2.9%	4.98	5.00	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	118	498	96	61	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.04	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	475	91	59	15	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	3.1%	5.09	5.15	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	447	84	57	15	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.3%	5.24	5.33	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	47	31	7	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	80	338	65	42	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	3.1%	5.09	5.11	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	74	47	12	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	93	393	75	49	13	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	3.3%	5.21	5.27	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	92	388	73	49	14	100%	6.1	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.6%	5.36	5.45	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	69	417	1762	336	219	58	99%	6.0	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	3.3%	5.22	4.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	846	161	105	28	99%	5.9	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	3.3%	5.22	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		132	115	580	2492	489	303	63	87%	4.4	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	2.5%	3.94	4.36	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	859	168	105	22	87%	4.4	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	2.5%	3.94	4.36	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Cornielle (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	18.4%	13.2%	2.8%	—	5.02	19.1%	6.7%	363	-0.10	—	—	—
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	77
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	76
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	75
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	74
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	74
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	74
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	74
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	74
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	74
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	74
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.31	14.4%	6.0%	217	-0.28	3.80	399	73
Matt Magill R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP	4.98	16.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.435	4.86	18.6%	8.4%	195	-0.12	3.40	287	73
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	73
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	73
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	72
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	109	19.0%	12.5%	1.17	5.09
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70