Shinnosuke Ogasawara

Shinnosuke Ogasawara P Harrisburg Senators

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.19

FIP5.46

K%15.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SI (1%)

CU (19%)

CH (22%)

SL-3.7 (19%)

FB-4.2 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.45	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.45	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	3.5%	5.45	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	2	39	173	30	17	9	9%	1.7	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	5.2%	6.98	5.89	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	11	59	240	64	15	7	100%	5.3	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	3.4%	2.91	3.97	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	11	59	240	64	15	7	100%	5.3	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	3.4%	2.91	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	WSH	8	8	46	182	51	11	5	100%	5.8	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	2.7%	2.15	3.01	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	WSH	3	3	13	58	13	4	2	100%	4.2	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	3.4%	5.68	3.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	60	252	39	26	9	100%	6.0	15.6%	10.4%	5.1%	3.7%	5.33	5.50	-0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	56	237	37	25	9	100%	6.2	15.4%	10.6%	4.8%	3.8%	5.47	5.62	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	19	80	12	8	3	100%	6.3	15.6%	10.4%	5.1%	3.7%	5.33	5.50	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	29	122	19	13	5	100%	5.8	15.4%	10.6%	4.8%	3.8%	5.47	5.62	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	10	86	374	61	38	17	32%	2.8	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	4.4%	6.12	5.45	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		71	23	200	867	141	88	39	32%	2.8	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	4.4%	6.12	5.45	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		42	21	131	558	104	43	20	50%	3.1	18.6%	7.7%	10.9%	3.5%	4.32	4.44	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	850	158	65	30	50%	3.1	18.6%	7.7%	10.9%	3.5%	4.32	4.44	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shinnosuke Ogasawara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	15.3%	10.3%	3.6%	—	5.56	15.5%	5.0%	116	+0.10	—	—	—
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	74
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	71
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	68
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	68
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	67
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	67
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	67
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	66
Manny Banuelos L 2019 · 5.89 FIP	28	SP-	5.89	18.7%	12.8%	5.0%	.322	2.95	22.9%	12.0%	72	-2.94	2.95	486	65
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	65
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	65
Steven Moyers L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	28	SW	5.24	14.7%	8.1%	4.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	464	64
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	64
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	64
Wes Benjamin L 2021 · 5.28 FIP	28	SW	5.28	16.0%	12.4%	3.6%	.380	4.46	21.7%	12.0%	31	-0.82	3.87	666	63
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	63
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	63
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	62
John Parke L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	28	SP-	4.39	15.0%	10.1%	2.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	655	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	15.4%	10.4%	1.43	5.32
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41