Shinnosuke Ogasawara
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 28
LHP
5'11" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123132vR 141
ERA5.20
FIP5.48
K%15.5%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SI (1%)
CU (19%)
CH (22%)
SL-3.7 (19%)
FB-4.2 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 10 | 73 | 318 | 61 | 27 | 11 | 32% | 2.3 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 10 | 73 | 318 | 61 | 27 | 11 | 32% | 2.3 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 11 | 11 | 59 | 240 | 64 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 2.91 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 63 | 264 | 41 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 5.48 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 121 | 504 | 105 | 43 | 16 | — | — | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.75 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.5% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 60 | 252 | 40 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 56 | 237 | 37 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.49 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.49 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 10 | 87 | 379 | 62 | 39 | 17 | 32% | 2.8 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.12 | 5.45 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 23 | 200 | 867 | 142 | 89 | 39 | 32% | 2.8 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.12 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 21 | 131 | 558 | 105 | 45 | 20 | 50% | 3.1 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.46 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 32 | 200 | 850 | 161 | 68 | 30 | 50% | 3.1 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 3.6% | — | 5.58 | 15.7% | 4.9% | 116 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 73 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 70 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 69 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 68 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 68 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 67 |
| Brian Holmes L 2024 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 67 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 66 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 66 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 66 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.84 | 18.7% | 12.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 2.92 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 72 | -2.92 | 2.92 | 486 | 66 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 6.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.63 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 179 | 65 |
| Steven Moyers L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.94 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 464 | 64 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 64 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 64 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 64 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 64 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.63 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 484 | 64 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 15.6% | 10.7% | 1.43 | 5.34 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |