Tanner Gillis
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.8
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.3 · 2028
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.4%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 21 | 14 | 92 | 369 | 69 | 22 | 2 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 2.65 | 3.09 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 103 | 429 | 88 | 33 | 13 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.75 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 84 | 34 | 11 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 35 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 88 | 35 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 86 | 35 | 11 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 79 | 33 | 11 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 74 | 33 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 70 | 32 | 11 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 67 | 27 | 10 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 26 | 10 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 55 | 25 | 10 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 14 | 103 | 411 | 64 | 27 | 5 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 3.28 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 27 | 200 | 795 | 124 | 52 | 10 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Gillis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.21 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 303 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 93 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 93 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 91 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 91 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 90 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 90 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 90 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 90 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 89 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 89 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 88 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 88 |
| Brennan Smith R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.27 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 1.2% | .291 | 10.48 | 6.4% | -6.6% | 14 | +7.21 | 3.27 | 116 | 87 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 87 |
| Casey Delgado R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.90 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 4.08 | 13.7% | 3.9% | 259 | +0.18 | 3.90 | 364 | 87 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 87 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 87 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 86 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $41M | +$34M | ||