Tanner Gillis — OGILVIE

Tanner Gillis P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%12.1%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	92	369	69	22	2	67%	4.4	14.2%	6.9%	7.2%	0.5%	2.65	3.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	92	369	69	22	2	67%	4.4	14.2%	6.9%	7.2%	0.5%	2.65	3.08	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	92	369	69	22	2	67%	4.4	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	0.5%	2.65	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	15	8	57	226	43	13	10	53%	3.8	15.4%	6.3%	9.1%	5.3%	3.32	5.51	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	15	8	57	226	43	13	10	53%	3.8	15.4%	6.3%	9.1%	5.3%	3.32	5.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	MIL	15	8	57	226	43	13	10	53%	3.8	19.0%	5.8%	13.3%	4.4%	3.32	4.65	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	5.9	12.1%	7.5%	4.5%	2.5%	4.77	4.77	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	63	251	46	15	11	—	—	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	4.2%	3.45	5.44	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	82	348	49	26	9	100%	6.9	14.2%	7.5%	6.7%	2.5%	4.66	4.62	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	81	343	51	26	9	100%	6.8	14.7%	7.6%	7.1%	2.6%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	79	333	57	23	9	100%	6.6	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.50	4.43	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	75	318	54	23	9	100%	6.8	16.9%	7.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.55	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	71	299	49	23	9	100%	7.1	16.6%	7.5%	9.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.73	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	66	279	45	22	9	100%	6.6	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.93	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	36	152	22	11	4	100%	7.2	14.2%	7.5%	6.7%	2.7%	4.73	4.69	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	52	220	32	17	6	100%	6.5	14.7%	7.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.70	4.70	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	60	253	43	18	7	100%	6.7	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	61	258	44	19	8	100%	6.8	16.9%	7.2%	9.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.63	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	61	258	43	19	8	100%	6.8	16.6%	7.5%	9.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.81	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	59	249	40	20	9	100%	6.6	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	3.5%	4.91	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	328	1386	223	103	42	100%	6.8	16.1%	7.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.71	4.35	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	136	63	26	100%	6.8	16.1%	7.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.71	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		36	22	149	595	87	40	14	61%	4.1	14.6%	6.7%	7.9%	2.4%	2.91	4.00	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	30	200	800	117	54	19	61%	4.1	14.6%	6.7%	7.9%	2.4%	2.91	4.00	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Gillis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	12.1%	7.5%	2.5%	—	4.56	15.3%	7.9%	243	-0.21	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	90
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	87
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	87
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	86
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	83
Mikey O'Brien R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP-	3.57	13.5%	8.1%	1.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	110	83
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	83
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	82
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	82
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	82
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	81
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	81
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	81
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	81
Ryan Etsell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	14.7%	6.4%	1.8%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	110	80
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	80
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	15.4%	7.5%	1.08	4.65
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77