Cohen Achen

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX3 levels	22	10	81	3.35	3.29	20.0%	9.7%	—	K 15.4% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.99
2026	25	MIX2 levels	34	0	47	4.56	4.07	18.8%	11.7%	—	K 14.8% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.71
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	57	0	60	5.55	5.55	13.3%	13.5%	-0.7
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBAL	26	0	27	5.45	5.46	14.3%	13.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBAL	39	0	41	5.42	5.46	14.9%	13.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Mark Peterson (age 26) · Stephen Johnson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%13.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	15.4%	10.9%	4.5%	1.5%	3.35	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	15.4%	10.9%	4.5%	1.5%	3.35	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	1.2%	3.35	3.29	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	47	223	42	26	4	0%	1.4	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	2.2%	4.56	4.71	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	47	223	42	26	4	0%	1.4	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	2.2%	4.56	4.71	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	47	223	42	26	4	0%	1.4	18.8%	11.7%	7.2%	1.8%	4.56	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	57	0	60	253	34	34	7	0%	1.1	13.3%	13.5%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.55	5.55	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	72	302	43	40	8	0%	1.1	14.3%	13.1%	1.2%	2.8%	5.45	5.46	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	293	44	38	8	0%	1.1	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.9%	5.42	5.46	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	280	42	36	9	0%	1.1	15.1%	13.0%	2.0%	3.1%	5.47	5.53	-0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	59	0	62	263	39	35	9	0%	1.1	14.9%	13.2%	1.7%	3.3%	5.59	5.68	-0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	26	0	27	114	16	15	3	0%	1.0	14.3%	13.1%	1.2%	2.8%	5.45	5.46	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	39	0	41	173	26	22	5	0%	1.1	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.9%	5.42	5.46	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	45	0	47	198	30	26	6	0%	1.0	15.1%	13.0%	2.0%	3.1%	5.47	5.53	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	47	0	49	207	31	27	7	0%	1.0	14.9%	13.2%	1.7%	3.3%	5.59	5.68	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	0	164	692	103	91	21	0%	1.1	14.8%	13.1%	1.8%	3.0%	5.49	5.17	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	111	26	0%	1.0	14.8%	13.1%	1.8%	3.0%	5.49	5.17	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		56	10	128	563	85	66	10	18%	2.3	15.2%	11.8%	3.4%	1.8%	3.80	4.27	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	16	200	880	134	104	15	18%	2.3	15.2%	11.8%	3.4%	1.8%	3.80	4.27	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cohen Achen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	13.3%	13.5%	2.7%	—	5.48	14.7%	1.7%	207	-0.07	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	86
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	83
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	83
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	83
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	82
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	81
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	81
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	81
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	81
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	81
Philip Walby R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	12.7%	12.0%	1.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	137	80
Sean White R 2007 · 4.48 FIP	26	SU	4.48	9.7%	12.1%	1.2%	.260	3.96	10.5%	4.1%	99	-0.52	3.75	134	80
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	66	14.5%	13.2%	1.14	5.49
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*