Gerardo Lopez — OGILVIE

Gerardo Lopez P FCL Phillies

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 183 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%19.9%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	2	30	131	30	10	1	15%	2.3	15.6%	9.5%	6.0%	1.2%	4.75	3.64	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	2	30	131	30	10	1	15%	2.3	15.6%	9.5%	6.0%	1.2%	4.75	3.64	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	2	30	131	30	10	1	15%	2.3	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	0.8%	4.75	2.54	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	7	7	28	118	26	5	1	100%	4.0	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	1.4%	3.54	3.27	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	7	7	28	118	26	5	1	100%	4.0	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	1.4%	3.54	3.27	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	7	7	28	118	26	5	1	100%	4.0	22.0%	4.2%	17.8%	0.8%	3.54	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	0	39	169	40	11	6	0%	1.9	16.1%	7.8%	8.2%	5.8%	4.85	5.94	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	0	39	169	40	11	6	0%	1.9	16.1%	7.8%	8.2%	5.8%	4.85	5.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	PHI	18	0	32	144	34	9	6	0%	1.8	23.6%	6.2%	17.4%	4.2%	5.91	4.18	—
2026	21	A RAW	PHI	1	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	PHI	2	0	5	18	3	2	0	0%	2.5	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	38	0	40	169	36	12	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.22	4.15	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	18	6	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.22	4.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	83	18	6	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.22	3.77	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	61	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.22	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		41	9	97	418	65	32	13	22%	2.4	15.6%	7.6%	8.0%	3.1%	4.44	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	18	200	859	134	66	27	22%	2.4	15.6%	7.6%	8.0%	3.1%	4.44	4.46	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerardo Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	19.9%	7.3%	2.9%	—	4.15	21.3%	14.2%	40	-0.17	—	—	—
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	88
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	88
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	86
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	85
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	83
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	83
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	83
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	83
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	83
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	83
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	83
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	82
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	82
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	82
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	81
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.9%	7.2%	1.11	4.25
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38