Player 825438 — OGILVIE

Player 8254381B DSL Padres Brown

Age — —/— ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 92 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .268 / .259

PA92

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	—	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	112	25	4	0	0	21	31	1	3	6	223	351	259	610	36	305	23	16	293	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	—	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	—	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	198	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	—	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	112	25	4	0	0	21	31	1	3	6	223	351	259	610	36	305	23	16	293	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	25	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	200	181	36	6	1	1	16	61	1	2	1	199	271	261	532	62	288	30	8	246	53	-11	+0	+0	-4	+4	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	158	143	29	5	1	1	13	47	1	1	0	202	273	272	545	70	288	30	8	251	56	-8	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	198	271	267	537	68	283	—	—	248	56	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	385	345	62	10	1	2	35	113	3	5	6	180	261	232	493	52	259	29	9	230	42	-13	+0	+0	-4	+5	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	105	17	2	3	59	191	5	8	10	180	261	232	493	52	261	29	9	230	42	-35	+1	+0	-12	+14	-3.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	250	2	2	201	270	269	-3	+0	-0.9	-0.5
/162	664	5	5	-8.9	+0.0	-2.4	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Player 825438 (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	197/268/259	62	288	1	1	30%	8%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→32	37→45	48→50	42	194/258/268	74	273	4	7	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/269/323	120	290	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	184/253/304	120	257	14	15	33%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Huascar Fuentes 2017 · A	25	39	39→45	49→45	40	188/257/278	90	253	6	7	27%	5%	53	-2.1	195/250/270	75	280	3	6	30%	5%	48	-2.5	165/211/221	56	238	0	2	29%	3%	19	-1.1
✕Jorge Saez 2016 · A	25	38	39→45	46→30	45	183/253/268	85	261	6	3	31%	8%	49	-2.4	205/267/329	124	289	15	4	32%	7%	68	-1.0	206/268/336	130	281	18	3	33%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	47	191/268/254	63	265	4	6	28%	8%	52	-2.2	215/279/298	83	267	6	8	20%	7%	65	-1.2	220/283/302	82	265	6	8	18%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Connor Blair 2022 · A	24	37	39→45	48→45	45	178/254/257	79	269	6	11	34%	9%	47	-2.5	194/282/305	111	306	12	8	37%	10%	69	-0.9	148/263/256	108	232	14	5	39%	12%	50	-0.8
✕Matt Pita 2021 · A	24	38	37→50	49→55	36	183/235/261	77	267	3	10	31%	4%	40	-3.1	200/260/334	134	278	14	16	32%	5%	68	-1.0	183/246/324	141	255	15	27	33%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/274	101	254	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	187/255/288	101	273	9	8	33%	8%	54	-2.0	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Chris Paul 2017 · A	24	40→37	38→40	52→40	36	194/241/271	78	282	5	5	32%	4%	44	-2.8	218/260/314	96	295	7	4	27%	4%	61	-1.5	228/265/331	103	298	8	2	26%	3%	65	-0.7
✕Brendt Citta 2021 · A	25	44	39→45	45→30	44	210/282/299	89	286	6	6	27%	7%	67	-1.1	218/272/315	97	311	7	3	31%	6%	66	-1.1	210/268/310	100	303	8	1	32%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Liam Spence 2023 · A	25	36	40	48→45	44	180/253/265	85	263	8	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	198/272/287	89	298	7	8	33%	8%	60	-1.6	159/252/213	54	251	3	7	34%	10%	34	-0.6
✕Ben Verlander 2017 · A	25	39→34	38→40	47→40	39	191/235/271	80	262	6	5	29%	5%	42	-2.9	205/256/286	81	285	5	6	28%	6%	53	-2.1	188/237/235	47	264	2	0	28%	6%	33	-1.1
✕Robbie Shields 2013 · A	25	43→38	39→40	47→45	45	207/262/298	91	262	6	8	23%	6%	58	-1.7	196/248/273	77	272	4	7	28%	6%	47	-2.5	176/222/238	61	248	2	5	28%	5%	26	-2.5
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA	25	36	38→45	45→40	43	171/258/251	80	290	5	5	39%	9%	48	-2.5	183/264/299	116	287	12	6	37%	9%	61	-1.5	172/257/295	123	249	14	4	35%	9%	55	-0.9
✕Ryan McCarthy 2008 · A	25	43	39→45	48→45	43	204/266/287	83	283	6	6	29%	7%	57	-1.8	217/271/324	107	287	10	7	26%	6%	68	-1.0	207/256/325	118	260	11	4	25%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Marcus Knecht 2015 · A	25	39→42	42→45	48→50	40	194/255/300	106	273	8	7	31%	6%	57	-1.8	193/261/277	84	281	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	167/243/236	69	251	2	13	31%	7%	36	-2.6
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	41→45	46→50	44	179/263/272	92	266	8	8	34%	8%	55	-2.0	185/271/281	96	287	9	9	35%	9%	59	-1.6	166/261/256	90	258	9	10	36%	9%	48	-1.2
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	40	181/259/253	72	263	5	5	31%	6%	49	-2.4	196/275/282	86	273	7	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	149/252/214	66	204	4	0	27%	8%	36	-0.7
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→45	48→30	43	189/253/279	90	264	9	6	31%	7%	51	-2.2	212/279/326	114	294	12	3	30%	8%	72	-0.7	205/275/317	113	280	13	1	30%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Jackson Glenn 2023 · A	25	41	38→40	52→45	40	197/254/282	85	291	5	11	32%	6%	52	-2.2	203/250/304	101	279	10	8	30%	5%	55	-1.9	197/242/299	102	261	11	6	28%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Grant Buckner 2013 · A	25	43→41	40	44→40	40	210/263/298	87	287	7	6	29%	5%	59	-1.7	212/261/315	103	270	9	5	24%	5%	62	-1.4	208/256/315	107	255	10	3	22%	4%	57	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps