Luke Craig

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AARI	7	0	8	1.12	1.10	34.4%	6.2%	—	K 34.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 0.99
2025	23	A+ARI	6	0	6	0.00	1.51	37.5%	12.5%	—	K 37.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 1.52
2026	24	MIX2 levels	16	1	18	5.09	3.44	19.1%	10.1%	—	K 14.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	8	0	8	4.67	4.67	19.5%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBARI	9	0	9	4.62	4.60	20.3%	10.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWayne Franklin (age 26) · Mike Zagurski (age 24) · Hector Mercado (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%19.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	7	0	8	32	11	2	0	0%	1.1	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	0.0%	1.12	0.99	—
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	7	0	8	32	11	2	0	0%	1.1	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	0.0%	1.12	0.99	—
2024	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	7	0	8	32	11	2	0	0%	1.1	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	0.0%	1.12	1.10	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	6	0	6	24	9	3	0	0%	0.9	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	6	0	6	24	9	3	0	0%	0.9	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	6	0	6	24	9	3	0	0%	0.9	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.51	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	18	89	17	9	1	6%	1.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.7%	0.0%	5.09	3.25	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	18	89	17	9	1	6%	1.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.7%	0.0%	5.09	3.25	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	18	89	17	9	1	6%	1.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	1.1%	5.09	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	17	8	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.60	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	7	4	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.22	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	93	23	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		29	1	31	145	33	15	0	3%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.0%	3.16	2.46	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	6	200	926	210	93	0	3%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.0%	3.16	2.46	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Craig (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.5%	10.1%	2.8%	—	4.60	20.3%	10.3%	20	-0.07	—	—	—
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	89
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	89
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	86
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	85
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
Jason Kershner L 2002 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	16.8%	12.1%	2.8%	.233	4.04	14.5%	8.1%	76	-0.72	3.87	100	84
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	84
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	83
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	82
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	82
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	81
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	80
Jeremy Horst L 2011 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	13.0%	7.2%	2.7%	.302	3.18	25.2%	15.5%	57	-1.21	2.12	181	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Scott Stewart L 2001 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	19.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.268	3.32	21.2%	15.5%	133	-0.33	2.60	181	79