Cesar Aquino
P
FCL Pirates
+0.3
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 201 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.9%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 12 | 6 | 46 | 174 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 14.5% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.98 | 3.12 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 21 | 1 | 47 | 190 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 4.18 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 24.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 24.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 24.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 24.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 7 | 93 | 364 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.54 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 15 | 200 | 780 | 105 | 41 | 13 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cesar Aquino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.08 | 23.2% | 15.3% | 130 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 94 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 91 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 91 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 90 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 90 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 89 |
| Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.79 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.03 | 2.87 | 354 | 89 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 89 |
| Jeff Bain R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.24 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.30 | 3.35 | 475 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Ian Koenig R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.71 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% | .310 | 5.79 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 146 | +2.08 | 3.71 | 166 | 89 |
| Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 89 |
| Clark Beeker R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 89 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 215 | 88 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2027 · 3.22 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.22 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.37 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.15 | 3.22 | 205 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||