Cesar Aquino — OGILVIE

Cesar Aquino P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 201 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%17.0%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	46	174	37	7	1	50%	3.8	14.5%	5.0%	9.4%	1.0%	0.98	3.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	46	174	37	7	1	50%	3.8	14.5%	5.0%	9.4%	1.0%	0.98	3.04	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	6	46	174	37	7	1	50%	3.8	21.3%	4.0%	17.2%	0.6%	0.98	2.23	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	47	190	34	8	3	5%	2.3	12.4%	5.2%	7.2%	2.2%	4.18	3.92	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	47	190	34	8	3	5%	2.3	12.4%	5.2%	7.2%	2.2%	4.18	3.92	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	1	47	190	34	8	3	5%	2.3	17.9%	4.2%	13.7%	1.6%	4.18	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	28	0	57	243	45	14	10	0%	2.0	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	5.4%	3.30	5.71	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	28	0	57	243	45	14	10	0%	2.0	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	5.4%	3.30	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	PIT	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	21	A RAW	PIT	13	0	29	114	21	2	3	0%	2.3	18.4%	1.8%	16.7%	2.6%	2.45	3.21	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	PIT	13	0	26	120	24	12	7	0%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	5.8%	4.50	5.88	—
2026	21	AA RAW	PIT	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	0%	1.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PIT	56	0	59	249	48	14	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	5.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.15	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	58	0	61	258	53	14	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.01	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	60	0	63	264	56	15	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	5.6%	15.6%	2.8%	4.01	3.93	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	60	0	63	268	58	15	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	5.5%	16.1%	2.8%	3.94	3.89	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	60	0	63	268	58	15	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	5.5%	16.4%	2.8%	3.89	3.86	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	59	0	62	263	58	15	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	5.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.90	3.90	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	PIT	28	0	29	122	23	7	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	5.7%	13.5%	2.6%	4.11	4.03	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	43	0	45	190	39	11	5	0%	1.0	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	2.6%	3.98	3.89	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	52	220	47	12	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	5.6%	15.6%	2.6%	3.89	3.81	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	53	0	56	236	51	13	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	5.5%	16.1%	2.6%	3.83	3.78	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	55	0	58	245	54	13	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	5.5%	16.4%	2.6%	3.78	3.75	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55	0	58	245	53	14	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	5.6%	16.3%	2.6%	3.78	3.78	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		283	0	297	1254	266	70	33	0%	1.0	21.2%	5.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.87	3.44	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	47	22	0%	1.1	21.2%	5.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.87	3.44	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		61	7	151	607	84	35	19	11%	2.5	13.8%	5.8%	8.0%	3.1%	2.87	4.39	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	9	200	806	111	47	25	11%	2.5	13.8%	5.8%	8.0%	3.1%	2.87	4.39	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Aquino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	17.0%	5.7%	2.9%	—	4.03	20.3%	14.7%	183	-0.34	—	—	—
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	88
Ben Sears R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	22	SU	3.57	16.0%	4.6%	2.2%	.270	4.20	16.8%	10.1%	182	+0.63	3.40	263	88
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	87
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	87
Vince Arobio R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	16.5%	5.6%	3.8%	.237	3.97	22.7%	13.3%	89	-0.52	3.67	118	87
Fabian Anguamea R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	21	SU	4.77	14.7%	5.4%	4.1%	.284	4.38	17.4%	3.3%	87	-0.39	3.99	164	86
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	86
Fraynel Nova R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SU	3.38	17.2%	6.6%	1.6%	.308	4.38	14.3%	3.3%	86	+1.00	3.38	129	86
Ismel Lopez R 2016 · 3.47 FIP	21	SU	3.47	16.6%	7.1%	1.6%	.314	4.29	15.8%	3.2%	16	+0.82	3.47	104	86
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	85
Ronald Dominguez R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	21	SU	3.28	19.4%	5.3%	2.1%	.273	3.35	17.4%	12.2%	152	+0.07	3.24	208	85
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	85
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	85
Elliot Ashbeck R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	13.6%	4.5%	3.8%	.284	3.29	19.5%	13.3%	99	-1.33	2.24	229	84
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	84
Mike Burke R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	22	SU	3.90	14.7%	4.4%	2.7%	.266	4.47	17.3%	10.3%	140	+0.57	3.90	207	84
Jake Newberry R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	21	SU	3.83	16.5%	7.2%	2.2%	.262	4.25	18.7%	9.1%	184	+0.42	3.23	410	84
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	84
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	84
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	57	20.8%	5.6%	1.09	4.03
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45