Evan Shaw — OGILVIE

Evan Shaw P Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%17.3%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2024	23	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	0.0%	2.22	3.31	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	0.0%	2.22	3.31	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	0.0%	2.22	2.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	2	64	294	61	37	2	5%	1.6	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	0.8%	5.94	3.88	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	2	64	294	61	37	2	5%	1.6	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	0.8%	5.94	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	LAD	41	2	64	294	61	37	2	5%	1.6	20.7%	12.6%	8.2%	0.7%	5.94	3.32	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	LAD	6	0	6	27	5	4	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.5%	2.7%	2.5%	5.26	5.26	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	70	321	66	41	3	—	—	20.5%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	5.88	4.01	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	70	296	54	41	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.15	5.14	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	66	0	69	291	54	40	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.12	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	67	282	53	38	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.8%	5.12	5.16	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	61	0	64	270	50	37	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.27	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAD	30	0	31	131	24	18	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.15	5.14	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	42	0	44	186	34	25	5	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.12	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	40	29	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.8%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	52	220	41	30	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	138	103	21	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.7%	4.7%	2.8%	5.14	4.80	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	116	24	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.7%	4.7%	2.8%	5.14	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		85	2	123	535	90	71	2	2%	1.5	16.8%	13.4%	3.5%	0.4%	4.16	3.62	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	3	200	868	146	116	4	2%	1.5	16.8%	13.4%	3.5%	0.4%	4.16	3.62	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	17.3%	14.5%	2.5%	—	5.14	18.4%	4.6%	206	-0.12	—	—	—
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	93
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	87
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	85
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	85
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	85
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	84
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Luis Ysla L 2017 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	15.7%	15.9%	1.0%	.326	5.35	18.5%	4.3%	180	+0.98	3.75	378	83
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	83
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	82
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	82
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	82
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	82
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	81
Frank Garces L 2015 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	16.7%	13.3%	4.2%	.267	4.32	16.9%	8.9%	114	-1.33	4.32	306	81
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	81
Winston Lavendier L 2017 · 5.06 FIP	24	SU	5.06	17.8%	12.9%	3.4%	.344	4.94	14.2%	4.7%	21	-0.12	2.98	179	81
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	18.2%	13.9%	1.04	5.17
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39