Evan Shaw
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118127vR 136
ERA5.19
FIP5.19
K%17.3%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%3.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 5 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 5 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 39 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 3.31 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 39 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 2.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 2 | 44 | 195 | 37 | 23 | 0 | 7% | 1.6 | 15.4% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 4.53 | 3.45 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 114 | 491 | 88 | 64 | 8 | — | — | 18.0% | 13.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.19 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 53 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 98 | 71 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 13.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 4.70 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 112 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 13.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 2 | 103 | 436 | 71 | 56 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 3.22 | 3.36 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 4 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 108 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 3.22 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Shaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 17.3% | 14.0% | 2.5% | — | 5.08 | 18.4% | 5.1% | 206 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 92 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 5.74 | 18.7% | -4.6% | 22 | +0.95 | 4.12 | 234 | 87 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.43 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.11 | 4.08 | 212 | 87 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 85 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 85 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 84 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 83 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.96 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | -0.18 | 3.26 | 128 | 83 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.83 | 15.5% | 13.4% | 2.5% | .343 | 3.76 | 22.3% | 16.4% | 35 | -1.07 | 3.76 | 175 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Winston Lavendier L 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.95 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 21 | -0.10 | 2.98 | 179 | 81 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 15.7% | 15.9% | 0.8% | .326 | 5.47 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 180 | +1.21 | 3.58 | 378 | 81 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.79 | 15.3% | 11.7% | 4.5% | .280 | 5.47 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 67 | -0.32 | 3.56 | 178 | 81 |
| John Kilichowski L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 81 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 102 | 80 |
| Kumar Nambiar L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 221 | 80 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 12.1% | 13.3% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 195 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.1% | 13.5% | 1.02 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |