Evan Shaw
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.2%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 5 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 39 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 3.31 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 58 | 245 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 20.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 39 | 23 | 6 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 47 | 34 | 0 | 17.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 2.23 | 3.23 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 813 | 145 | 105 | 0 | 17.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 2.23 | 3.23 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Shaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.61 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 156 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 93 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 89 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 88 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 87 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 87 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 85 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 85 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 85 |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.98 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.3% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 175 | 84 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 84 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 84 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 84 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.1% | .280 | 5.07 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +1.60 | 3.47 | 431 | 84 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.68 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | .352 | 4.78 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | +0.10 | 3.88 | 256 | 83 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 83 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 83 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.8% | .312 | 4.58 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.10 | 3.48 | 134 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.