A.J. Causey
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10797vR 88
ERA3.82
FIP3.82
K%20.4%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 73 | 283 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 2.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 73 | 283 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 6.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 1.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 5.34 | 3.45 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 77 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 122 | 517 | 107 | 39 | 10 | — | — | 20.8% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.72 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 84 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.72 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 88 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.68 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 90 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.71 | 3.67 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 88 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 3.73 | 3.73 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 85 | 0 | 89 | 377 | 85 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.81 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 80 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.94 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 74 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 71 | 0 | 75 | 315 | 74 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 3.75 | 3.69 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.70 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 75 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 3.78 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.91 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 70 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 531 | 0 | 558 | 2356 | 530 | 152 | 61 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.44 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 54 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 0 | 105 | 420 | 84 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 2.82 | 2.61 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 797 | 159 | 63 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 2.82 | 2.61 | +6.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Causey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 2.3% | — | 3.69 | 22.2% | 16.1% | 279 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.60 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.17 | 2.03 | 164 | 90 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2027 · 2.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.91 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 105 | 88 |
| Ulises Joaquin R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 17.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% | .286 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 120 | +1.16 | 1.56 | 192 | 87 |
| Alex Phillips R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Jordan Piche R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.17 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .317 | 4.41 | 12.3% | 5.4% | 55 | +1.24 | 3.17 | 115 | 86 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 86 |
| John Fasola R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.78 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .294 | 2.94 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.84 | 2.72 | 124 | 86 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.36 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .316 | 4.77 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.41 | 3.36 | 137 | 86 |
| Dan Slania R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .335 | 4.74 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 331 | +1.40 | 3.34 | 403 | 85 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.94 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .330 | 2.55 | 21.2% | 16.0% | 33 | -1.39 | 1.88 | 136 | 85 |
| Matt Anderson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .288 | 3.00 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 62 | -1.02 | 3.00 | 129 | 85 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.33 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.37 | 3.33 | 258 | 85 |
| Ben Bracewell R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.94 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 1.2% | .270 | 4.08 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 350 | +1.14 | 2.94 | 538 | 85 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .316 | 2.79 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41 | -0.96 | 2.79 | 144 | 85 |
| Marquis Grissom Jr. R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.47 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 2.3% | .271 | 6.14 | 18.0% | 5.2% | 49 | +2.67 | 3.31 | 144 | 84 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 84 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.40 | 20.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .331 | 3.74 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 168 | +0.34 | 3.31 | 222 | 84 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.50 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.98 | 2.65 | 304 | 84 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 84 |
| Josh Martin R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 88 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 1.00 | 3.83 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Collin McHugh ('23) | 8 | 99 | 23.6% | 6.8% | 0.93 | 3.60 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Julio Urías ('23) | 7 | 102 | 24.2% | 6.6% | 1.06 | 3.13 |
| David Price ('22) | 7 | 132 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 1.06 | 3.46 |