A.J. Causey — OGILVIE

A.J. Causey P Midland RockHounds

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%20.4%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD5560

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	20.8%	6.8%	14.1%	0.0%	1.72	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	20.8%	6.8%	14.1%	0.0%	1.72	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	26.5%	6.0%	20.5%	0.0%	1.72	1.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	45	0	50	223	52	25	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	1.5%	5.04	3.75	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	45	0	50	223	52	25	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	1.5%	5.04	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	OAK	36	0	37	154	38	12	1	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.8%	16.9%	0.6%	4.14	2.36	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	OAK	9	0	13	69	14	13	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	18.8%	1.4%	2.9%	7.62	5.36	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	6.2%	14.2%	2.3%	3.81	3.81	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	56	248	57	27	4	—	—	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	1.4%	4.91	3.75	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	88	0	92	389	84	24	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	2.4%	3.77	3.72	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	89	0	93	394	88	24	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	6.1%	16.2%	2.4%	3.73	3.68	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	89	0	93	394	90	24	10	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.2%	16.6%	2.4%	3.70	3.67	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	88	0	92	388	88	24	10	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	2.5%	3.72	3.72	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	89	377	85	24	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.4%	16.1%	2.6%	3.77	3.80	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	81	0	85	360	80	24	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	6.6%	15.7%	2.7%	3.87	3.93	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	76	0	80	338	74	23	10	0%	1.1	22.0%	6.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.02	4.11	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	37	10	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	2.3%	3.74	3.69	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	59	0	62	262	59	16	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.1%	16.2%	2.3%	3.70	3.65	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	74	312	71	19	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	6.2%	16.6%	2.4%	3.67	3.64	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	75	0	79	334	76	21	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	2.4%	3.69	3.69	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	75	0	79	334	75	21	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.4%	16.1%	2.5%	3.73	3.76	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	73	0	77	325	73	22	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	6.6%	15.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.89	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	74	312	69	22	9	0%	1.1	22.0%	6.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.98	4.07	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	0	487	2055	460	132	52	0%	1.0	22.4%	6.4%	16.0%	2.5%	3.76	3.40	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	54	21	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.4%	16.0%	2.5%	3.76	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		93	0	123	506	101	44	3	0%	1.3	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	0.7%	3.06	2.88	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	821	164	72	6	0%	1.3	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	0.7%	3.06	2.88	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Causey (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	20.4%	6.2%	2.3%	—	3.69	22.2%	16.1%	279	-0.12	—	—	—
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	90
Ian Gardeck R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	24	SU	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	88
Jordan Piche R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	23	SU	3.40	19.1%	7.1%	1.8%	.317	4.19	12.3%	5.4%	55	+0.79	3.40	115	87
Ulises Joaquin R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	23	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.5%	2.4%	.286	4.77	15.0%	6.8%	120	+1.14	1.56	192	87
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	87
Ben Bracewell R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	24	SU	3.21	19.0%	6.3%	1.7%	.270	3.96	14.7%	7.4%	350	+0.75	3.21	538	86
John Fasola R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	21.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.294	2.96	19.8%	11.6%	58	-0.85	2.72	124	86
Dan Slania R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	23	SU	3.38	23.2%	5.4%	2.8%	.335	4.52	17.5%	8.7%	331	+1.14	3.38	403	85
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	85
Ronnie Muck R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	22.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.316	4.63	15.0%	0.3%	75	+1.39	3.24	137	85
Matt Anderson R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	23	SU	3.84	17.4%	7.5%	2.3%	.288	2.99	17.5%	10.7%	62	-0.85	2.99	129	85
Mayckol Guaipe R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SU	3.97	17.0%	7.1%	2.6%	.330	2.49	21.2%	16.0%	33	-1.48	1.88	136	85
Ryan Halstead R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	20.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.331	3.54	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.42	3.12	222	84
Zach Agnos R 2023 · 3.15 FIP	22	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.9%	2.0%	.265	3.86	17.7%	9.7%	166	+0.71	2.73	218	84
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	84
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	84
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	84
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	83
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	22.1%	6.3%	0.97	3.79
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13