A.J. Causey
P
Midland RockHounds
+1.0
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA3.90
FIP3.90
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 48 | 0 | 73 | 283 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 2.20 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 69 | 25 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 77 | 323 | 73 | 27 | 7 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 3.71 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 73 | 25 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 75 | 26 | 8 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 76 | 26 | 8 | 23.5% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 3.83 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 75 | 26 | 8 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.85 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 72 | 25 | 8 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.92 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 24 | 8 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 59 | 23 | 7 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 77 | 297 | 63 | 21 | 0 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.75 | 2.21 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 0 | 200 | 771 | 164 | 55 | 0 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.75 | 2.21 | +7.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Causey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.90 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 2.3% | — | 3.84 | 23.3% | 15.3% | 227 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 93 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 93 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.31 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.52 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 48 | +0.21 | 3.31 | 118 | 93 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 92 |
| Alex Phillips R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 92 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 92 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.38 | 3.57 | 281 | 92 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 91 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.64 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.43 | 3.21 | 137 | 91 |
| Connor Brogdon R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.98 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 1.4% | .311 | 3.57 | 26.1% | 18.1% | 134 | +0.59 | 2.98 | 386 | 91 |
| Jordan Piche R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.40 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.22 | 12.3% | 5.4% | 55 | +0.82 | 3.40 | 115 | 90 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 90 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.64 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 385 | 90 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 90 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.10 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .324 | 4.59 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 229 | +1.49 | 3.10 | 355 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 90 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 90 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.36 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .281 | 7.73 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.37 | 3.36 | 191 | 90 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .331 | 4.70 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.12 | 3.58 | 539 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.7 | $4M | -$0.4M |
| Totals | $12M | $41M | +$29M | ||