Juan Alvarez

OF ACL D-backs

Age 21 S/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Arizona R…	173	.248/.322/.392	3	4	14	—	.139/.205/.203
2026	20	ROKARI	183	.264/.341/.411	4	1	34	—	.176/.231/.276
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBARI	293	.195/.252/.284	4	4	51	-0.6
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBARI	78	.206/.264/.308	1	1	56	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO64

wRC+38

K%31

wOBA28

Whiff%26

Z-Con%24

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsEduardo Lopez (age 21) · Jean Walters (age 21) · Juan Valdes (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .250 / .281

PA154

HR2

K%30

BB%6

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	183	163	43	10	1	4	19	47	0	1	2	264	341	411	752	147	345	26	10	335	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	90	11	1	0	1	11	36	2	1	2	122	233	167	400	44	176	34	10	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	158	22	5	1	1	9	53	4	4	1	139	205	203	407	63	198	31	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	183	170	30	6	1	3	12	68	0	1	2	176	231	276	507	100	262	37	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	90	11	1	0	1	11	36	2	1	2	122	233	167	400	44	182	34	10	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	158	22	5	1	1	9	53	4	4	1	139	205	203	407	63	198	31	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	183	170	30	6	1	3	12	68	0	1	2	176	231	276	507	100	270	37	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	183	163	43	10	1	4	19	47	0	1	2	264	341	411	752	147	345	26	10	335	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	91	11	1	0	1	11	36	2	1	2	121	233	165	398	44	176	34	10	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	158	22	5	1	1	9	53	4	4	1	139	205	203	407	63	198	31	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	183	169	30	6	1	3	12	68	0	1	2	178	231	278	509	101	262	37	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	91	11	1	0	1	11	36	2	1	2	121	233	165	398	44	176	34	10	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	158	22	5	1	1	9	53	4	4	1	139	205	203	407	63	198	31	5	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	183	169	30	6	1	3	12	68	0	1	2	178	231	278	509	101	262	37	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	293	270	54	10	2	4	18	87	3	4	1	195	252	284	535	89	270	30	6	243	51	-17	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	227	209	41	8	1	3	14	66	2	3	1	200	258	297	555	97	272	29	6	251	56	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	78	72	15	3	1	1	5	23	1	1	0	206	264	308	572	103	282	29	6	258	56	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	78	72	15	3	1	1	5	23	1	1	0	208	269	319	589	111	292	29	6	258	36	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	124	25	8	8	42	192	8	8	0	207	268	315	583	108	290	30	6	258	36	-34	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	842	770	132	25	4	10	55	269	9	11	7	171	235	253	488	82	245	32	7	222	36	-21	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	102	19	3	8	42	208	7	8	5	172	234	254	489	82	245	32	6	222	36	-36	+0	+0	-4	+14	-2.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	232	3	3	197	252	289	-1	+0	-0.8	-0.4
/162	664	9	9	-4.0	+0.0	-2.4	pk7: 0
#5Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#6Howie Schultz'43-'48 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	24	15	233*	271*	383*	-30	-2	-3.6	-3.6
/162	664	9	6	-11.8	-0.7	-1.4	pk7: -4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alvarez (OGILVIE)	21	35	35	45	25	193/250/281	88	270	2	2	30%	6%	51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eduardo Lopez 2023 · A	21	41	39→40	46→50	42	193/266/276	83	298	7	9	35%	8%	56	-1.9	191/257/299	108	283	10	11	34%	8%	57	-1.8	169/236/283	114	242	12	11	34%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Jean Walters 2023 · A	21	40	34→40	48→45	38	192/235/244	52	279	2	8	31%	5%	35	-3.4	210/250/284	74	285	4	6	26%	5%	50	-2.3	214/261/301	87	283	6	5	26%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Juan Valdes 2006 · A	21	40→39	41→40	44→50	39	198/254/292	94	291	9	10	34%	6%	54	-2.0	203/268/296	93	293	9	10	31%	8%	61	-1.5	189/267/264	75	275	7	11	31%	9%	51	-1.6
✕Luis Soto 2007 · A	21	39	40→45	46→30	35	194/226/287	92	269	8	4	31%	4%	42	-2.9	200/252/303	103	275	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.9	188/247/291	103	242	14	0	28%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Julio Garcia 2018 · A	21	42→37	36→40	48→40	38	199/243/272	73	289	2	7	31%	5%	45	-2.7	180/213/244	64	299	4	3	39%	3%	26	-4.0	158/184/209	52	268	4	2	41%	2%	5	-3.0
✕Yasel Antuna 2021 · A	21	43→35	41→45	46→50	41	210/264/310	101	290	9	9	30%	6%	62	-1.4	188/261/301	113	261	11	11	31%	9%	59	-1.6	169/251/272	103	233	11	12	31%	9%	48	-1.7
✕Raymel Flores 2016 · A	21	42	41→45	46→50	40	206/260/304	98	296	9	10	32%	6%	59	-1.7	189/241/251	62	293	3	10	34%	5%	39	-3.1	168/220/211	43	265	1	12	35%	5%	19	-1.7
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	39	39→40	45→50	40	192/245/278	86	270	7	8	31%	6%	47	-2.5	194/249/286	92	266	7	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	165/232/259	94	229	8	19	30%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Lizandro Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	41→39	41→40	48→55	43	201/270/297	96	279	8	12	30%	7%	62	-1.4	198/265/288	90	279	6	16	29%	7%	57	-1.8	179/250/263	83	249	5	24	28%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Nomar Fana 2024 · A	21	39	38→50	47→50	44	187/258/266	79	280	6	11	33%	8%	51	-2.3	182/260/291	109	294	12	12	39%	9%	57	-1.8	154/241/265	110	245	14	14	40%	10%	43	-1.3
✕Kay-Lan Nicasia 2023 · A	21	38	41→40	43→55	41	185/254/285	100	295	8	6	38%	8%	53	-2.1	172/253/272	100	303	8	18	42%	9%	51	-2.3	137/232/234	97	253	8	23	45%	10%	33	-1.4
✕Nathan Mikolas 2015 · A	21	40	40	48→45	40	192/263/283	91	288	8	7	34%	7%	57	-1.8	207/266/297	90	302	8	6	32%	6%	60	-1.6	195/255/278	83	281	9	4	32%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	43	36→30	46→50	47	200/276/265	66	284	3	8	29%	9%	57	-1.8	184/240/252	68	328	3	8	42%	6%	40	-3.1	144/185/202	58	313	3	4	52%	4%	4	-1.2
✕Jean Carmona 2021 · A	21	44	40	49→50	37	207/258/304	97	317	7	8	36%	6%	58	-1.7	191/254/281	90	360	8	9	45%	7%	52	-2.2	180/232/274	94	339	9	7	47%	6%	38	-1.6
✕Jorge Martinez 2014 · A	21	36→26	43→45	46→45	35	185/226/295	110	274	10	5	36%	5%	44	-2.8	180/227/281	101	296	10	7	40%	6%	41	-3.0	126/174/201	75	211	8	7	43%	5%	4	-1.4
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→41	42→45	45	39	187/239/300	113	260	9	5	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/255/326	121	270	13	6	28%	6%	63	-1.4	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Elvin Polanco 2008 · A	21	41	40→45	46→40	42	201/255/292	92	259	8	4	26%	6%	55	-2.0	212/248/310	98	285	10	3	28%	4%	55	-1.9	208/237/299	91	280	10	2	29%	3%	47	-1.5
✕Johan Macias 2024 · A	21	45→47	38→40	47→50	42	212/275/289	77	287	5	6	26%	6%	61	-1.5	216/267/297	81	285	5	9	24%	5%	60	-1.6	215/262/293	78	274	5	9	23%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Leudys Baez 2016 · A	21	42	41→45	45	32	207/233/306	99	294	8	7	32%	3%	49	-2.4	207/248/304	97	322	8	6	36%	5%	54	-2.0	201/244/299	98	318	7	4	37%	5%	47	-0.9

Juan Alvarez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps