Bryce Shaffer
P
Charleston RiverDogs
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.22
FIP4.22
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.4%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 27 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 3.29 | 2.59 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 40 | 164 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.72 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 39 | 14 | 0 | 20.1% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.33 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 171 | 61 | 0 | 20.1% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.33 | +6.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Shaffer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.16 | 23.0% | 14.3% | 106 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 85 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 83 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 83 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 83 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .320 | 5.44 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.47 | 3.97 | 158 | 82 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.06 | 2.63 | 160 | 82 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 82 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 82 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.03 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.14 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 152 | +0.11 | 3.82 | 244 | 82 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.42 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 4.9% | .307 | 4.91 | 17.3% | 4.7% | 158 | -0.51 | 3.41 | 195 | 82 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 82 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 82 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 82 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $5M | +$1M | ||