Bryce Shaffer — OGILVIE

Bryce Shaffer P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%17.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	27	0	41	176	43	12	0	0%	1.5	18.1%	8.0%	10.0%	0.0%	3.29	2.59	—
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	27	0	41	176	43	12	0	0%	1.5	18.1%	8.0%	10.0%	0.0%	3.29	2.59	—
2025	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	27	0	41	176	43	12	0	0%	1.5	24.4%	6.8%	17.6%	0.0%	3.29	1.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	35	0	52	231	48	27	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	13.8%	1.6%	1.1%	2.61	4.17	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	35	0	52	231	48	27	2	0%	1.5	15.4%	13.8%	1.6%	1.1%	2.61	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	TB	35	0	52	231	48	27	2	0%	1.5	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	0.9%	2.61	3.30	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	22	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	57	253	52	29	3	—	—	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	1.0%	2.79	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	46	21	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	8.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	47	21	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.45	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	54	0	57	240	47	21	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	20	9	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	8.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	36	0	38	160	31	14	4	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.45	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	42	0	44	186	36	16	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	0	107	452	87	39	13	0%	1.0	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.48	4.10	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	73	24	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.48	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		62	0	93	407	67	46	3	0%	1.5	16.5%	11.3%	5.2%	0.6%	2.91	3.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	878	145	99	6	0%	1.5	16.5%	11.3%	5.2%	0.6%	2.91	3.49	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Shaffer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	17.9%	8.7%	2.7%	—	4.48	19.3%	10.6%	172	-0.09	—	—	—
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	95
Billy Strode L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	17.6%	8.8%	1.7%	.306	2.85	16.0%	7.3%	47	-0.79	2.53	155	91
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	90
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	90
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	88
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	87
Hayden Howard L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	17.9%	9.6%	1.9%	.295	3.76	17.5%	9.1%	61	-0.08	3.76	200	87
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	86
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	86
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	86
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	85
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	85
Cam Alldred L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	23	SU	4.61	18.1%	11.0%	3.0%	.323	4.24	18.5%	7.9%	132	-0.37	3.70	332	85
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	85
Joel Bender L 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	15.8%	9.2%	1.1%	.309	3.35	19.2%	13.4%	45	-0.22	3.22	117	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	85
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	85
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	84
Yoely Bello L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	13.8%	9.1%	1.9%	.254	5.03	10.8%	-1.6%	35	+0.87	4.16	103	84
Dalton Moats L 2019 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.5%	8.1%	3.8%	.286	4.48	22.2%	16.4%	83	-0.19	3.23	322	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	18.9%	8.7%	1.07	4.51
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41