Jacob Cravey

P Frederick Keys

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ABAL	24	13	84	5.27	4.19	19.5%	15.3%	—	K 14.4% · BB 18.0% · FIP 5.15
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	10	92	2.93	3.83	21.0%	10.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.97
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	1	34	6.29	7.27	16.1%	16.1%	—	K 11.7% · BB 16.8% · FIP 8.32
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	57	0	60	6.36	6.36	12.3%	16.3%	-1.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBBAL	34	0	36	6.09	6.05	14.3%	15.4%	-0.6
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBAL	49	0	51	5.96	5.96	14.9%	14.9%	-0.8

Next 3 projected WAR -2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Clate Schmidt (age 25) · Vanny Valenzuela (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.36

FIP6.36

K%12.3%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-4.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	13	84	380	74	58	5	54%	3.5	14.4%	18.0%	-3.6%	1.8%	5.27	5.15	—
2024	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	13	84	380	74	58	5	54%	3.5	14.4%	18.0%	-3.6%	1.8%	5.27	5.15	—
2024	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	24	13	84	380	74	58	5	54%	3.5	19.5%	15.3%	4.2%	1.3%	5.27	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	92	381	80	41	8	40%	3.7	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	2.9%	2.93	4.97	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	92	381	80	41	8	40%	3.7	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	2.9%	2.93	4.97	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	10	92	381	80	41	8	40%	3.7	21.0%	10.8%	10.2%	2.1%	2.93	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	34	161	26	26	9	4%	1.3	11.7%	16.8%	-5.0%	7.5%	6.29	8.32	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	34	161	26	26	9	4%	1.3	11.7%	16.8%	-5.0%	7.5%	6.29	8.32	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	34	161	26	26	9	4%	1.3	16.1%	16.1%	0.0%	5.6%	6.29	7.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	57	0	60	253	31	41	9	0%	1.1	12.3%	16.3%	-4.0%	3.4%	6.36	6.36	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	350	50	54	12	0%	1.0	14.3%	15.4%	-1.0%	3.3%	6.09	6.05	-1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	78	0	82	345	51	51	12	0%	1.0	14.9%	14.9%	0.0%	3.4%	5.96	5.96	-1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	79	334	57	46	12	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.76	5.69	-1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	72	0	76	319	54	45	11	0%	1.0	17.1%	14.0%	3.1%	3.6%	5.76	5.78	-1.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	71	300	50	43	11	0%	1.0	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	3.8%	5.88	5.96	-1.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	22	23	5	0%	1.1	14.3%	15.4%	-1.0%	3.3%	6.09	6.05	-0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	49	0	51	215	32	32	7	0%	1.0	14.9%	14.9%	0.0%	3.4%	5.96	5.96	-0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	57	0	60	253	43	35	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.76	5.69	-0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	59	0	62	262	45	37	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.0%	3.1%	3.6%	5.76	5.78	-0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	58	0	61	258	43	37	10	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	3.8%	5.88	5.96	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		256	0	269	1136	184	163	40	0%	1.1	16.2%	14.4%	1.8%	3.5%	5.87	5.49	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	121	30	0%	1.0	16.2%	14.4%	1.8%	3.5%	5.87	5.49	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		75	24	210	922	134	143	30	32%	2.8	14.5%	15.6%	-1.1%	3.2%	4.41	5.63	-5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	23	200	878	127	137	29	32%	2.8	14.5%	15.6%	-1.1%	3.2%	4.41	5.63	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Cravey (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.36	12.3%	16.3%	3.4%	—	5.90	15.4%	0.7%	244	-0.46	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	80
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	80
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	79
Kane Davis R 2000 · 7.22 FIP	25	SW	7.22	4.7%	15.3%	4.7%	.359	4.70	18.8%	8.9%	82	-2.52	3.40	125	79
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	78
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	78
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	76
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	76
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	75
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	75
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	75
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	74
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	74
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	74
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	74
Jacob Dahlstrand R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	25	SW	5.73	8.6%	13.8%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	119	74
Logan Sendelbach R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	12.3%	13.9%	2.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	340	73
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	75	15.5%	14.7%	1.35	5.96
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*