Johnny Tincher

C Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 R/R 5'6" / 177 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A+CLE	234	.202/.313/.268	1	3	26	—	.160/.248/.209
2026	24	AABAL	43	.158/.220/.184	0	0	-1	—	.154/.195/.179
2026	24	ABAL	15	.357/.400/.643	1	0	130	—	.357/.400/.643
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBBAL	3	.201/.276/.276	0	0	56	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBBAL	74	.205/.280/.291	1	1	61	-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBBAL	125	.207/.281/.295	1	2	62	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%90

Whiff%55

K%44

Speed11

Chase%8

BB%5

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsOnix Vega (age 25) · Nick Meyer (age 25) · Erick Castillo (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .276 / .276

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO79

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	43	38	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	158	220	184	404	26	214	26	5	185	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	15	14	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	357	400	643	1.043	286	333	7	0	454	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	186	26	4	0	2	23	70	5	0	1	140	252	194	446	54	201	32	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	206	33	7	0	1	19	58	5	3	1	160	248	209	457	49	201	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	43	39	6	1	0	0	1	13	1	0	0	154	195	179	375	26	204	30	2	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	15	14	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	357	400	643	1.043	286	285	7	0	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	186	26	4	0	2	23	70	5	0	1	140	252	194	446	54	207	32	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	206	33	7	0	1	19	58	5	3	1	160	248	209	457	49	212	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	58	53	11	2	0	1	1	15	2	0	0	208	250	302	552	94	263	26	2	216	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	58	52	11	2	0	1	2	12	2	0	0	212	268	308	576	96	250	21	3	254	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	186	26	4	0	2	23	70	5	0	1	140	252	194	446	54	201	32	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	208	33	7	0	1	19	58	5	3	1	159	248	207	455	48	201	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	58	55	11	2	0	1	1	15	2	0	0	200	250	291	541	91	225	26	2	216	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	186	26	4	0	2	23	70	5	0	1	140	252	194	446	54	201	32	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	208	33	7	0	1	19	58	5	3	1	159	248	207	455	48	201	25	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	58	55	11	2	0	1	1	15	2	0	0	200	250	291	541	91	225	26	2	216	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	2%	200	179	35	7	1	1	16	50	3	3	1	198	273	271	544	73	264	25	8	252	56	-10	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	201	276	276	552	75	268	33	0	255	56	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	31%	239	214	43	9	1	2	19	60	4	4	1	202	277	285	562	83	266	25	8	259	61	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	42%	298	268	54	11	1	3	24	74	4	4	1	203	278	289	567	85	266	25	8	260	62	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	336	301	61	12	1	4	27	84	5	5	2	204	278	290	568	86	267	25	8	261	63	-15	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	353	317	64	13	1	4	28	89	5	4	2	203	278	290	567	86	266	25	8	260	62	-16	+0	-1	+6	+8	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	50%	364	327	66	13	1	4	29	92	5	4	2	202	276	288	564	85	266	25	8	259	61	-17	+0	-2	+7	+8	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	31%	74	67	14	3	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	205	280	291	571	86	269	24	8	262	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	42%	125	112	24	5	1	1	10	31	2	2	1	207	281	295	576	88	270	25	8	264	62	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	161	145	30	6	1	2	13	40	2	2	1	207	281	296	577	89	270	25	8	264	63	-7	+0	-0	+3	+3	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	174	156	33	7	1	2	14	44	2	2	1	207	280	296	576	89	270	25	8	264	62	-8	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	50%	183	165	34	7	1	2	14	46	2	2	1	206	279	294	573	88	270	25	8	262	61	-8	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	717	645	135	28	4	8	57	179	9	9	4	209	283	302	585	93	275	25	8	263	54	-32	+0	-2	+13	+16	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	122	25	4	7	52	162	8	8	4	209	283	301	583	92	274	25	8	263	54	-29	+0	-2	+12	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2239	1999	383	76	6	22	181	577	37	26	11	192	271	269	540	77	255	26	8	248	54	-79	+1	-4	+31	+38	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	111	22	2	6	53	168	11	8	3	191	272	267	539	76	255	26	8	248	54	-30	+0	-2	+12	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	720	8	9	204	275	290	+13	+8	0.0	0.1
/162	664	7	9	+11.9	+7.4	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johnny Tincher (OGILVIE)	25	35	25	45	50	197/271/269	72	264	1	2	25%	8%	56	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Onix Vega 2024 · AAA	25	44	37→30	46→45	48	208/284/280	72	270	5	6	24%	8%	63	-1.3	200/267/277	77	255	6	7	23%	8%	56	-1.9	180/257/208	28	230	3	8	22%	9%	34	-0.9
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	44	38→40	47→50	44	211/273/283	73	272	6	12	24%	6%	59	-1.6	216/289/308	92	281	9	15	25%	8%	72	-0.7	203/283/284	81	264	10	18	25%	9%	61	-0.7
✕Erick Castillo 2018 · AA	25	43	36→30	46→30	41	207/254/268	61	269	4	3	24%	5%	49	-2.4	206/253/281	75	262	6	5	23%	5%	51	-2.3	188/246/227	39	232	3	0	20%	4%	34	-0.9
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	40	181/259/253	72	263	5	5	31%	6%	49	-2.4	196/275/282	86	273	7	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	149/252/214	66	204	4	0	27%	8%	36	-0.7
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	187/248/261	74	257	6	6	29%	7%	45	-2.7	202/264/278	76	269	6	7	25%	7%	55	-1.9	194/260/252	58	250	4	5	23%	7%	45	-1.3
✕Micael Ramirez 2024 · AA	25	43	37→30	46→40	50	204/271/273	69	249	5	5	20%	8%	57	-1.8	222/279/305	83	284	8	6	23%	7%	66	-1.1	241/289/296	56	307	8	0	23%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Stuart Turner 2017 · AA	25	43	39→40	46→45	45	206/268/293	87	265	7	7	24%	7%	60	-1.6	190/244/265	75	265	6	6	29%	6%	45	-2.7	151/197/193	42	219	4	1	32%	5%	8	-1.1
✕Ross Wilson 2014 · AA	25	41→47	38→40	47→45	44	198/269/273	75	265	5	7	26%	7%	56	-1.9	202/262/300	98	269	9	6	27%	6%	59	-1.6	189/247/297	108	245	11	2	27%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2016 · A	25	40	38→30	44→50	44	192/249/266	75	242	5	5	23%	6%	47	-2.6	211/264/269	58	257	4	3	18%	6%	52	-2.2	221/269/269	47	257	5	0	16%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Cobie Fletcher-Vance 2023 · AA	25	45→46	37→40	46→45	45	215/274/288	73	268	5	6	21%	6%	61	-1.5	216/271/309	93	284	7	6	25%	6%	65	-1.2	206/261/303	96	281	6	0	27%	5%	56	-0.7
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	47	191/268/254	63	265	4	6	28%	8%	52	-2.2	215/279/298	83	267	6	8	20%	7%	65	-1.2	220/283/302	82	265	6	8	18%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Stephen McGee 2016 · AAA	25	43	37→40	41→30	47	203/281/274	71	284	4	3	28%	9%	61	-1.5	197/280/292	95	289	8	4	32%	9%	65	-1.2	171/267/265	94	258	9	1	34%	11%	52	-0.7
✕Shea Vucinich 2014 · AA	25	42→45	39→40	46→50	44	198/275/285	87	285	6	10	30%	8%	61	-1.5	199/273/291	92	283	6	12	29%	8%	61	-1.5	172/252/261	89	243	4	14	29%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Jose Rivera 2015 · AA	25	43	38→40	46→45	42	204/254/287	82	259	4	6	22%	5%	53	-2.1	214/257/302	88	308	6	7	31%	5%	57	-1.8	211/236/269	58	322	3	0	34%	2%	38	-0.8
✕Josh Bissonette 2022 · AA	25	45	37→30	45→30	44	214/266/286	72	281	5	6	25%	6%	57	-1.8	204/267/273	69	272	4	5	24%	8%	55	-2.0	185/255/232	47	249	1	1	24%	8%	38	-1.0
✕Matt Jones 2017 · AA	25	41	38→45	44→30	43	195/247/278	83	259	4	5	26%	6%	48	-2.5	198/259/301	103	270	11	3	30%	7%	59	-1.7	185/250/285	100	246	14	0	30%	7%	50	-1.0
✕Robbie Shields 2013 · A	25	43→38	39→40	47→45	45	207/262/298	91	262	6	8	23%	6%	58	-1.7	196/248/273	77	272	4	7	28%	6%	47	-2.5	176/222/238	61	248	2	5	28%	5%	26	-2.5
✕Jio Mier 2016 · AAA	25	43→44	39→40	46→50	46	206/270/289	83	268	7	9	25%	7%	59	-1.6	203/253/292	89	266	7	7	25%	6%	54	-2.0	185/227/262	77	243	5	4	26%	4%	35	-1.4
✕Sean McCraw 2011 · AA	25	42	36→30	43→30	46	200/271/268	69	278	3	4	28%	8%	55	-1.9	201/265/296	95	277	8	6	28%	7%	59	-1.6	155/222/245	91	207	8	0	29%	8%	29	-1.1
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2008 · AAA	25	38	38→40	45→40	37	186/239/266	80	266	5	4	31%	5%	42	-2.9	206/259/284	78	285	7	4	29%	6%	54	-2.0	208/273/289	82	286	7	0	28%	7%	59	-0.8

Johnny Tincher

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps