Danny Kirwin

P Greenville Drive

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	ASalem Red Sox	20	5	69	3.63	3.09	24.2%	8.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.19
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	4	71	5.07	3.37	21.1%	7.6%	—	K 16.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.16
2026	26	A+BOS	17	0	25	9.24	7.64	22.0%	17.4%	—	K 16.9% · BB 20.0% · FIP 8.37
2027PROJ	27	MLBBOS	57	0	60	5.67	5.67	16.4%	13.7%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBBOS	20	0	21	5.59	5.62	16.9%	13.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBBOS	29	0	30	5.59	5.65	17.2%	13.4%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsStephen Johnson (age 25) · Julian Arballo (age 27) · Fernando Cruz (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%16.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	20	5	69	285	69	24	5	25%	3.5	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	2.4%	3.63	4.19	—
2024	24	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	20	5	69	285	69	24	5	25%	3.5	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	2.4%	3.63	4.19	—
2024	24	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	20	5	69	285	69	24	5	25%	3.5	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	1.8%	3.63	3.09	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	71	303	64	23	6	14%	2.5	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.4%	5.07	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	71	303	64	23	6	14%	2.5	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.4%	5.07	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	4	71	303	64	23	6	14%	2.5	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	2.0%	5.07	3.37	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	17	0	25	132	29	23	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	20.0%	-3.1%	7.6%	9.24	8.37	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	17	0	25	132	29	23	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	20.0%	-3.1%	7.6%	9.24	8.37	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	17	0	25	132	29	23	8	0%	1.5	22.0%	17.4%	4.5%	6.1%	9.24	7.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BOS	57	0	60	253	41	35	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	13.7%	2.6%	3.3%	5.67	5.67	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	244	41	33	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	13.4%	3.5%	3.4%	5.59	5.62	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	52	0	55	233	40	31	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.4%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	20	0	21	89	15	12	3	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.4%	3.5%	3.4%	5.59	5.62	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	29	0	30	127	22	17	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.4%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	37	29	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.5%	5.59	5.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	113	31	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.4%	3.7%	3.5%	5.59	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		65	9	166	720	124	83	24	14%	2.5	17.3%	11.5%	5.7%	3.4%	5.11	4.94	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	11	200	869	150	100	29	14%	2.5	17.3%	11.5%	5.7%	3.4%	5.11	4.94	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Kirwin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	16.4%	13.7%	3.3%	—	5.63	17.1%	3.7%	113	-0.04	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	82
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	79
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	78
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	78
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	78
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	78
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	78
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.8%	13.5%	1.32	5.62
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*