Cade Denton

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	34	0	40	3.63	2.92	19.3%	6.4%	—	K 13.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.36
2025	23	A+COL	42	0	51	3.73	3.67	28.1%	7.6%	—	K 21.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.83
2026	24	AACOL	40	3	87	4.74	3.86	22.9%	8.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	67	0	70	4.81	4.81	19.2%	9.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCOL	32	0	34	4.73	4.72	20.1%	9.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	47	0	49	4.71	4.73	20.3%	9.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAustin Ross (age 24) · Barrett Loseke (age 25) · J.R. Graham (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%19.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	49	12	3	1	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.0%	10.80	2.93	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	10	49	12	3	1	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.0%	10.80	2.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	13.8%	6.7%	7.1%	1.1%	3.63	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	13.8%	6.7%	7.1%	1.1%	3.63	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	1.2%	3.63	2.92	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	4.5%	3.73	4.83	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	4.5%	3.73	4.83	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	3.6%	3.73	3.67	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	40	3	87	371	85	31	11	8%	2.2	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.65	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	40	3	87	371	85	31	11	8%	2.2	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.65	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	40	3	87	371	85	31	11	8%	2.2	22.9%	8.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.74	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	67	0	70	296	57	27	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.81	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	75	0	79	332	67	31	11	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.72	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	74	0	77	327	66	30	11	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.71	4.73	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	75	317	65	30	11	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	72	303	61	29	11	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	285	56	28	10	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.0%	9.9%	3.7%	4.99	5.09	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	32	0	34	144	29	13	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.72	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	47	0	49	207	42	19	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.71	4.73	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	49	23	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	56	0	59	249	50	24	9	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	55	0	58	245	49	24	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.0%	9.9%	3.7%	4.99	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	0	257	1084	218	103	37	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.5%	10.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.48	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	80	29	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.5%	10.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		124	3	188	815	153	68	26	2%	1.5	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.33	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	3	200	869	163	73	28	2%	1.5	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.33	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Denton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	19.2%	9.2%	3.2%	—	4.75	20.2%	10.9%	231	-0.06	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	93
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	91
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	90
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	89
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	88
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	88
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	88
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	88
Mark Peterson R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	17.8%	8.8%	3.5%	.287	4.78	13.7%	1.8%	52	+0.13	4.65	185	87
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	87
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	87
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	87
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	86
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	86
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	86
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	86
Taylor Grover R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	17.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.317	4.92	19.4%	9.1%	89	+1.24	3.68	239	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	73	20.0%	9.5%	1.30	4.80
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*