Sam Armstrong

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 245 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	20	116	2.87	3.07	21.2%	7.6%	—	K 16.6% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.90
2025	24	AAMIN	27	26	130	4.71	3.72	19.0%	7.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.41
2026	25	AAMIN	32	20	118	4.96	4.14	20.3%	8.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.88
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	14	14	85	5.11	5.11	14.4%	8.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBMIN	7	7	43	5.04	5.06	15.2%	8.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBMIN	11	11	67	5.04	5.08	15.6%	8.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsBryce Morrow (age 27) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Forrest Snow (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%14.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	15	63	11	8	0	11%	1.6	12.3%	15.7%	-3.4%	0.0%	4.91	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	15	63	11	8	0	11%	1.6	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	0.0%	4.91	3.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.0%	2.87	3.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.0%	2.87	3.90	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	21.2%	7.6%	13.7%	1.5%	2.87	3.07	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	15.4%	8.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.41	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	15.4%	8.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.41	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	2.4%	4.71	3.72	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.7%	4.96	4.88	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.7%	4.96	4.88	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.96	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	14	14	85	359	52	31	11	100%	6.1	14.4%	8.7%	5.7%	3.2%	5.11	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	486	74	42	16	100%	6.1	15.2%	8.7%	6.5%	3.2%	5.04	5.06	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	112	472	73	41	16	100%	5.9	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	3.3%	5.04	5.08	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	107	451	71	40	15	100%	5.9	15.7%	8.9%	6.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	100	423	65	39	15	100%	5.9	15.5%	9.2%	6.2%	3.6%	5.23	5.33	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	28	16	6	100%	6.1	15.2%	8.7%	6.5%	3.2%	5.04	5.06	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	67	283	44	25	9	100%	6.1	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	3.3%	5.04	5.08	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	75	317	50	28	11	100%	6.2	15.7%	8.9%	6.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.17	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	79	334	52	31	12	100%	6.1	15.5%	9.2%	6.2%	3.6%	5.23	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	264	1114	173	100	38	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.9%	6.5%	3.4%	5.11	4.80	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	131	76	29	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.9%	6.5%	3.4%	5.11	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		95	67	379	1599	255	140	45	71%	4.0	16.0%	8.7%	7.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.39	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	845	135	74	24	71%	4.0	16.0%	8.7%	7.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.39	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Armstrong (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	14.4%	8.7%	3.2%	—	5.10	15.5%	6.7%	334	-0.01	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	88
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	86
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	85
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	84
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	83
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	83
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	83
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	82
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	82
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	82
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	82
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	81
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	81
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	104	15.3%	8.9%	1.29	5.10
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Steve Parris ('03)	3.8	94	14.4%	8.7%	1.36	4.75
Paul Wilson ('05)	4.7	135	14.9%	8.1%	1.20	4.86
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Al Nipper ('83-'90, 4 WAR*)	4.0	133	14.8%*	8.5%*	1.23*	4.56*
Socks Seibold ('16-'33, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	15.4%*	9.6%*	1.16*	4.69*