Nick Brink
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.5 · 2029
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.0%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 22 | 113 | 479 | 86 | 41 | 6 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.02 | 4.06 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 89 | 46 | 12 | 18.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 115 | 489 | 90 | 48 | 12 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.87 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 105 | 49 | 14 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 114 | 50 | 15 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 117 | 51 | 15 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 117 | 51 | 16 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 114 | 51 | 16 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 130 | 547 | 109 | 50 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 104 | 49 | 15 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 93 | 46 | 15 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 87 | 45 | 15 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 80 | 43 | 14 | 18.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 73 | 41 | 14 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 66 | 39 | 13 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 24 | 117 | 502 | 66 | 50 | 7 | 13.2% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 3.45 | 4.07 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 856 | 112 | 85 | 12 | 13.2% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 3.45 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Brink (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 18.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.37 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 397 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 95 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 92 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 14.3% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .302 | 4.58 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 240 | 91 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 91 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 91 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 91 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.40 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.09 | 4.31 | 232 | 90 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 90 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 89 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.5% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .296 | 4.66 | 13.8% | 3.2% | 189 | +0.49 | 4.17 | 317 | 89 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 89 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 89 |
| Carter Spivey R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.00 | 14.2% | 10.6% | 1.4% | .264 | 6.08 | 14.9% | 3.5% | 30 | +2.08 | 4.00 | 155 | 89 |
| Kevin McAvoy R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.05 | 15.2% | -2.0% | 91 | +0.98 | 4.07 | 466 | 89 |
| Elliot Morris R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 102 | 88 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Kyle Robinson R 2024 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.78 | 13.1% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 121 | 88 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 88 |
| Jake Thompson R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 2.3% | 28 | +0.36 | 3.50 | 212 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.9 | $5M | +$4M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| Totals | $6M | $54M | +$48M | ||