Joe Glassey

P Frederick Keys

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ABAL	7	0	8	1.17	2.97	26.9%	0.0%	—	K 26.9% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.94
2025	24	MIX3 levels	17	0	27	2.00	2.03	35.6%	1.9%	—	K 25.7% · BB 0.0% · FIP 3.51
2026	25	MIX3 levels	40	0	49	1.64	0.83	40.6%	4.8%	—	K 32.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 1.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	—	—	0	3.47	3.47	28.4%	6.4%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBWSH	14	0	15	3.58	3.59	27.9%	6.8%	0.2

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsSam Wolff (age 26) · David Carpenter (age 26) · Jonathan Aro (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.47

FIP3.47

K%28.4%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%22.0%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	7	0	8	26	7	0	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	0.0%	26.9%	3.8%	1.17	2.94	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	7	0	8	26	7	0	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	0.0%	26.9%	3.8%	1.17	2.94	—
2024	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	7	0	8	26	7	0	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	0.0%	26.9%	3.8%	1.17	2.97	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	27	104	37	2	3	0%	1.6	25.7%	0.0%	25.7%	4.7%	2.00	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	27	104	37	2	3	0%	1.6	25.7%	0.0%	25.7%	4.7%	2.00	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	0	27	104	37	2	3	0%	1.6	35.6%	1.9%	33.7%	2.9%	2.00	2.03	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	49	187	76	9	1	0%	1.2	32.6%	7.8%	24.8%	1.1%	1.64	1.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	49	187	76	9	1	0%	1.2	32.6%	7.8%	24.8%	1.1%	1.64	1.91	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	49	187	76	9	1	0%	1.2	40.6%	4.8%	35.8%	0.5%	1.64	0.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.4%	6.4%	22.0%	2.9%	3.47	3.47	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	169	47	11	5	0%	1.1	27.9%	6.8%	21.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.59	+0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	14	0	15	63	18	4	2	0%	1.1	27.9%	6.8%	21.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.59	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	17	4	2	0%	1.0	27.9%	6.8%	21.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.21	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	231	54	27	0%	1.1	27.9%	6.8%	21.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.21	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		64	0	84	317	95	15	8	0%	1.3	29.9%	4.6%	25.3%	2.5%	1.71	2.52	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	755	226	35	19	0%	1.3	29.9%	4.6%	25.3%	2.5%	1.71	2.52	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 28 IPFIP 0.85 → 1.91 (+1.07)K% 42.4% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.37%	—	×0.770	32.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.150	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.85 → 1.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 13 IPFIP 0.51 → 1.08 (+0.58)K% 34.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.09%	—	×0.810	27.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.27%	—	×1.100	2.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.51 → 1.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 8 IPFIP -0.62 → -0.10 (+0.52)K% 44.0% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.860	37.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.62 → -0.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 24 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.51 (+1.56)K% 34.8% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.740	25.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷0.899	×1.300	4.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 8 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.30 (+1.36)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.740	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.952	×1.300	5.25%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Glassey (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.47	28.4%	6.4%	2.9%	—	3.59	27.9%	21.1%	40	+0.12	—	—	—
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	84
David Carpenter R 2011 · 3.10 FIP	26	SU	3.10	23.2%	4.8%	2.5%	.287	3.02	25.7%	19.1%	159	-0.08	2.66	275	82
Jonathan Aro R 2017 · 3.72 FIP	26	SU	3.72	25.3%	6.9%	3.4%	.252	3.56	14.6%	8.1%	108	-0.16	2.57	323	81
Heath Bell R 2004 · 4.40 FIP	26	SU	4.40	28.7%	6.4%	5.3%	.304	2.71	24.7%	18.1%	177	-1.69	1.86	629	80
Alex Powers R 2018 · 2.99 FIP	26	SU	2.99	25.8%	6.4%	2.3%	.257	3.55	26.5%	16.8%	98	+0.56	2.82	264	79
Carlos Alvarado R 2016 · 2.68 FIP	26	SU	2.68	27.8%	0.0%	3.5%	.250	4.64	23.1%	10.5%	59	+1.96	2.68	102	79
Trevor Brigden R 2022 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	27.6%	4.2%	4.0%	.303	4.17	24.6%	14.6%	113	+0.67	3.50	196	79
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	79
George Kontos R 2012 · 2.87 FIP	27	SU	2.87	24.9%	6.8%	1.8%	.263	3.75	18.2%	13.1%	161	+0.88	2.56	421	78
Cory Gearrin R 2012 · 2.52 FIP	26	SU	2.52	25.0%	6.2%	1.4%	.296	3.67	20.1%	11.3%	74	+1.15	1.81	341	78
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Brandon Kintzler R 2011 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	24.6%	4.9%	4.7%	.275	3.29	16.7%	11.4%	152	-0.93	2.42	498	77
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	77
Blake Parker R 2013 · 2.80 FIP	28	SU	2.80	28.2%	7.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	27.6%	20.2%	78	+0.44	2.52	406	77
Deolis Guerra R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.5%	4.9%	3.2%	.291	3.65	21.9%	15.7%	179	+0.17	2.53	364	77
James Farris R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	24.4%	6.6%	3.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	170	77
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	77
Kelly Austin R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.9%	5.6%	4.4%	.273	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	100	+0.40	4.22	141	76
Anthony Varvaro R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	24.0%	7.3%	3.4%	.190	3.37	19.0%	12.0%	145	-0.48	3.02	208	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	28.0%	6.7%	1.13	3.55
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.7	56	29.6%	6.6%	1.18	3.49
Josh Fields ('18)	1.4	46	27.5%	8.0%	0.98	3.71
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*