Trevor Brigden
P
Durham Bulls
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%24.1%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 49 | 200 | 69 | 10 | 8 | 6% | 1.6 | 22.9% | 4.1% | 18.9% | 5.6% | 4.59 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 49 | 200 | 69 | 10 | 8 | 6% | 1.6 | 34.5% | 5.0% | 29.5% | 4.0% | 4.59 | 3.02 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 59 | 230 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.6% | 4.2% | 23.4% | 4.1% | 3.05 | 3.57 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 59 | 230 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 34.8% | 3.5% | 31.3% | 3.5% | 3.05 | 2.56 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 44 | 2 | 78 | 329 | 95 | 39 | 9 | 5% | 1.8 | 25.4% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.46 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 44 | 2 | 78 | 329 | 95 | 39 | 9 | 5% | 1.8 | 28.9% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 32 | 0 | 35 | 159 | 45 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 4.9% | 7.64 | 4.96 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 32 | 0 | 35 | 159 | 45 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 9.4% | 18.9% | 5.0% | 7.64 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 24 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.26 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 88 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 144 | 4 | 221 | 918 | 233 | 74 | 36 | 3% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 4.16 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 4 | 200 | 830 | 210 | 67 | 33 | 3% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Brigden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.64 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 25 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 89 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 86 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 77 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 1.27 | 4.50 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |