Trevor Brigden — OGILVIE

Trevor Brigden P Durham Bulls

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%23.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	49	200	69	10	8	6%	1.6	22.9%	4.1%	18.9%	5.4%	4.59	4.67	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	49	200	69	10	8	6%	1.6	34.5%	5.0%	29.5%	4.0%	4.59	3.02	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	59	230	80	8	8	0%	1.6	27.6%	4.2%	23.4%	4.0%	3.05	3.50	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	59	230	80	8	8	0%	1.6	34.8%	3.5%	31.3%	3.5%	3.05	2.56	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	5%	1.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	2.6%	3.46	3.88	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	5%	1.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	2.6%	3.46	3.88	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	5%	1.8	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.46	3.66	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	5.2%	7.64	5.05	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	5.2%	7.64	5.05	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	5.0%	7.64	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	TB	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TB	24	0	25	104	24	10	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.56	4.64	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.56	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.56	4.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	88	22	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.56	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		144	4	221	918	226	66	37	3%	1.5	24.6%	7.2%	17.3%	4.0%	4.27	4.16	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	4	200	830	204	60	34	3%	1.5	24.6%	7.2%	17.3%	4.0%	4.27	4.16	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Brigden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	23.6%	9.3%	3.2%	—	4.64	23.2%	13.5%	25	+0.19	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	88
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	86
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	85
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	84
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	83
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	77
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	77
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	23.4%	9.5%	1.29	4.50
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46