Trevor Brigden — OGILVIE

Trevor Brigden P Durham Bulls

+0.2 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%24.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%14.2%

IP38

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

K†6060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	31	2	49	200	69	10	8	22.9%	4.1%	5.4%	4.59	4.65	+0.2
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	37	0	59	230	80	8	8	27.6%	4.2%	4.0%	3.05	3.50	+1.0
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	25.4%	12.4%	2.6%	3.46	3.97	+1.0
2024	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	24.9%	9.9%	5.2%	7.64	5.09	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	TB	38	—	38	160	39	16	5	24.1%	9.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.48	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	TB	37	—	37	155	37	15	5	23.8%	10.0%	3.3%	4.51	4.54	+0.2
2028	32	MLB	TB	35	—	35	148	35	15	5	23.5%	10.1%	3.3%	4.56	4.61	+0.1
2029	33	MLB	TB	34	—	34	141	33	14	5	23.1%	10.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.69	+0.1
2030	34	MLB	TB	32	—	32	134	31	14	5	22.8%	10.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.79	+0.1
2031	35	MLB	TB	30	—	30	127	28	13	5	22.4%	10.6%	3.6%	4.84	4.91	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			144	4	221	918	233	74	37	25.3%	8.1%	4.0%	4.27	4.20	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			130	4	200	830	211	67	33	25.3%	8.1%	4.0%	4.27	4.20	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Brigden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	24.1%	9.9%	3.2%	—	4.61	23.5%	13.4%	105	+0.13	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	90
David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	87
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	84
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	83
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	79
Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	160	79
Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	30	SW	3.56	23.3%	8.5%	2.5%	.288	4.73	20.6%	9.9%	86	+1.17	2.72	392	79
Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	30	SW	4.24	22.2%	11.1%	2.9%	.349	3.54	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.70	3.05	227	79
Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	20.6%	10.8%	1.1%	.333	3.78	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.47	3.31	244	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	253	78
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	78
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	30	SW	4.06	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	3.94	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.12	1.69	468	78
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	77
Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	77
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	21.7%	6.3%	3.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	137	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	30	SU	5.16	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.54	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.62	3.45	170	77

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.