Julio Rosario

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKDSL Royals Bl…	12	3	28	3.18	3.70	17.4%	5.2%	—	K 11.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 5.15
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	0	44	2.44	2.08	29.3%	9.4%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.27
2025	23	AKC	30	0	50	4.35	4.27	23.4%	10.6%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	57	0	60	5.31	5.31	17.9%	13.3%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBKC	24	0	25	5.20	5.19	18.7%	12.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBKC	35	0	37	5.15	5.16	19.0%	12.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

CompsJuan Paniagua (age 25) · Nolan Riggs (age 25) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%17.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	3	28	115	20	6	3	25%	2.4	11.8%	6.5%	5.3%	4.0%	3.18	5.15	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	12	3	28	115	20	6	3	25%	2.4	17.4%	5.2%	12.2%	2.6%	3.18	3.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	0.8%	2.44	3.27	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	0.8%	2.44	3.27	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	0.5%	2.44	2.08	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.35	5.33	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.35	5.33	—
2025	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.35	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	57	0	60	253	45	34	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.3%	4.6%	3.0%	5.31	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	57	0	60	251	47	32	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	3.0%	5.20	5.19	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	59	247	47	31	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.7%	6.4%	3.1%	5.15	5.16	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	20	14	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	3.0%	5.20	5.19	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	35	0	37	156	30	20	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.7%	6.4%	3.1%	5.15	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	50	33	8	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.7%	6.1%	3.0%	5.17	4.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	106	26	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.7%	6.1%	3.0%	5.17	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		66	3	122	524	90	57	15	5%	1.9	17.2%	10.9%	6.4%	2.8%	3.38	4.54	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	5	200	857	148	93	24	5%	1.9	17.2%	10.9%	6.4%	2.8%	3.38	4.54	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	17.9%	13.3%	3.0%	—	5.18	18.9%	6.1%	118	-0.13	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	90
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	89
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	88
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	86
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	85
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	85
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	85
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	85
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	85
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	18.6%	12.9%	1.18	5.22
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*