Cade Gibson
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA3.48
FIP4.05
xFIP4.23
SIERA4.08
K%20.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.6%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4045
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p2618.7%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
CH+3.0 (14%)
SL+1.9 (24%)
SI (23%)
CU (29%)
FB-1.2 (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 8 | 1 | 15 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.61 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 19 | 118 | 502 | 99 | 37 | 10 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 21 | 12 | 81 | 337 | 71 | 36 | 2 | 16.5% | 12.1% | 0.8% | 2.23 | 3.67 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 53 | 1 | 75 | 313 | 68 | 25 | 4 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 2.65 | 3.14 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 7 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 43 | 180 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 65 | 29 | 8 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.24 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 59 | 28 | 8 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 46 | 26 | 8 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 37 | 24 | 7 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 33 | 299 | 1255 | 225 | 119 | 23 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 3.22 | 3.80 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 22 | 200 | 840 | 151 | 80 | 15 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 3.22 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Gibson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.33 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 227 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.14 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.16 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.98 | 2.60 | 430 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 77 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 77 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .355 | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.09 | 3.77 | 188 | 77 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.36 | 14.3% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.83 | 21.5% | 13.4% | 162 | -0.53 | 2.93 | 478 | 76 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 74 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 74 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 74 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 74 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 74 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 74 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 73 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.