Cade Gibson
P
Miami Marlins
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8695vR 105
ERA3.46
FIP3.73
K%19.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
CH+3.0 (14%)
SL+1.9 (24%)
SI (23%)
CU (29%)
FB-1.2 (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 15 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 12% | 1.8 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 1.50 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 15 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 12% | 1.8 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 1.60 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 118 | 502 | 99 | 37 | 10 | 83% | 5.1 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 118 | 502 | 99 | 37 | 10 | 83% | 5.1 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 4.58 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 12 | 81 | 337 | 71 | 36 | 2 | 57% | 3.8 | 16.5% | 12.1% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 2.23 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 12 | 81 | 337 | 71 | 36 | 2 | 57% | 3.8 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 0.6% | 2.23 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 75 | 313 | 68 | 25 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 2.65 | 3.17 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 75 | 313 | 68 | 25 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 2.65 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 0 | 44 | 191 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 3.89 | 2.60 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 93 | 396 | 86 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 21.7% | 7.7% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 3.66 | 3.19 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 73 | 307 | 86 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 28.0% | 9.9% | 18.1% | 2.0% | 4.67 | 3.11 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 1 | 313 | 1325 | 249 | 120 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 3.82 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 159 | 77 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 33 | 332 | 1401 | 259 | 127 | 29 | 24% | 2.4 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.82 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 20 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 77 | 17 | 24% | 2.4 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Gibson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.55 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 195 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 74 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.27 | 14.3% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .269 | 3.81 | 21.5% | 13.4% | 162 | -0.46 | 2.93 | 478 | 74 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .299 | 4.27 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.62 | 2.52 | 430 | 74 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 73 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 73 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 72 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.42 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.63 | 16.5% | 10.2% | 155 | +0.21 | 3.21 | 241 | 72 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 72 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.55 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .355 | 4.08 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 188 | 72 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 71 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 71 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 71 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 71 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.33 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .280 | 4.48 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 115 | +1.15 | 3.10 | 337 | 70 |
| Franklin Morales L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 70 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | .326 | 3.53 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.77 | 2.46 | 483 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 0.95 | 4.33 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |