Cade Gibson

P Miami Marlins

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	21	12	81	2.23	3.00	21.1%	10.7%	—	K 16.5% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.68
2025	27	MIX2 levels	53	1	75	2.65	2.98	21.7%	8.0%	1.4	K 20.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.11
2026	28	MIX2 levels	62	1	72	4.40	3.10	22.5%	8.0%	1.2	K 21.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.23
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	41	0	43	4.13	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	0.2
2028PROJ91% MLB	30	MLBMIA	28	0	29	4.32	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	0.0
2029PROJ93% MLB	31	MLBMIA	18	0	19	4.54	4.69	17.3%	9.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs75

K%34

FB Velo15

Form4.84 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 20.2% (proj 18.8%) · BB 8.5% (proj 9.1%) · last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsRyan Verdugo (age 28) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Tommy Phelps (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA4.13

FIP4.25

K%18.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.50	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	19.7%	7.4%	12.4%	2.0%	4.58	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	0.6%	2.23	3.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.4%	2.65	3.11	+1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.4%	2.65	3.11	+1.3
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	1.3%	2.65	2.98	+1.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	21.3%	7.9%	13.5%	1.7%	4.40	3.23	+1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	21.3%	7.9%	13.5%	1.7%	4.40	3.23	+1.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	1.6%	4.40	3.10	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	2	105	451	87	38	7	2%	1.2	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	1.6%	3.94	3.40	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	41	0	43	182	34	17	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.2%	4.13	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	30	0	31	132	24	12	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	2.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	20	0	20	87	15	8	2	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.69	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	22	12	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	2.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	18	0	19	80	14	8	2	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	2	153	652	123	57	12	1%	1.1	18.8%	8.8%	10.1%	1.8%	4.09	3.63	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	3	200	854	161	75	16	1%	1.1	18.8%	8.8%	10.1%	1.8%	4.09	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		167	34	360	1521	282	138	28	20%	2.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.8%	3.45	3.68	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	19	200	846	157	77	15	20%	2.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.8%	3.45	3.68	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 21 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.31 (+0.33)K% 28.9% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.89%	—	×0.860	24.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×0.900	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 20 IPFIP 2.29 → 2.68 (+0.39)K% 30.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.12%	—	×0.860	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×0.900	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 2.29 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 59 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.83 (+0.70)K% 19.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.12%	—	×0.770	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.56%	—	×1.150	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷0.935	×1.250	1.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 21 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.21 (+0.61)K% 26.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.810	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.100	15.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.064	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 83 IPFIP 3.87 → 5.08 (+1.21)K% 18.1% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.13%	—	×0.770	13.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.150	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.817	×1.250	3.78%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 35 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.25 (+0.85)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.740	17.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.180	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 8 IPFIP 2.01 → 3.01 (+1.00)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.740	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.180	15.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.959	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.01 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 7 IPFIP 0.91 → 2.15 (+1.24)K% 37.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.680	25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.250	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.852	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 0.91 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	—	4.54	17.8%	8.3%	52	+0.29	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	76
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	75
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	74
Josh Osich L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	29	SU	3.73	17.3%	9.5%	1.6%	.377	5.05	22.2%	15.9%	115	+1.32	3.41	315	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	74
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	71
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	70
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	70
Lucas Luetge L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	21.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.346	3.56	22.0%	14.2%	100	-0.09	2.53	508	70
Blaine Hardy L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	16.2%	6.2%	1.5%	.246	3.82	20.6%	14.7%	231	+0.50	2.74	456	70
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.02	369	70
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	69
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	69
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	68
John King L 2024 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	15.3%	5.2%	2.2%	.276	4.83	14.7%	7.8%	98	+1.17	2.85	439	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	41	18.8%	9.3%	0.75	4.10
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Jeremy Accardo ('12)	1.4	47	16.8%	9.1%	0.76	4.30
Tim Scott ('97)	1.6	52	18.4%	9.7%	0.69	4.13
Javy Guerra ('21)	1.5	50	18.5%	9.1%	0.86	3.98
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Danny Kolb ('99-'07, 2 WAR*)	1.4	48	16.2%*	10.2%*	0.62*	4.12*