Cade Gibson — OGILVIE

Cade Gibson P Miami Marlins

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.61

FIP3.85

K%18.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

CH+3.0 (14%)

SL+1.9 (24%)

SI (23%)

CU (29%)

FB-1.2 (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.50	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	19.7%	7.4%	12.4%	2.0%	4.58	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	0.6%	2.23	3.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.65	3.13	+1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.65	3.13	+1.3
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	1.3%	2.65	2.98	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	2	100	431	80	38	7	2%	1.2	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	1.6%	3.86	3.55	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	56	1	67	291	63	25	5	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	1.8%	4.30	3.47	+0.9
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	56	1	67	291	63	25	5	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	1.8%	4.30	3.47	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	MIA	15	0	21	90	26	5	1	0%	1.4	28.9%	5.6%	23.3%	1.1%	2.11	1.97	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	MIA	41	1	46	201	37	20	4	2%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.0%	5.32	3.90	+0.4
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	MIA	41	1	46	201	37	20	4	2%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.0%	5.32	3.90	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	2.2%	3.61	3.85	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	2.2%	3.61	3.85	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	73	316	68	27	6	—	—	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	1.8%	4.24	3.50	+1.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	52	218	68	27	6	—	—	31.1%	12.5%	18.6%	2.5%	6.00	3.46	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	293	51	29	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.8%	7.6%	2.3%	4.36	4.52	+0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	275	46	28	7	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.73	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	63	0	66	279	49	27	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.8%	7.6%	2.3%	4.36	4.52	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	59	0	62	262	44	27	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.2%	6.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		212	2	234	995	177	94	20	1%	1.1	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	2.1%	4.18	3.93	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	2	200	851	151	80	17	1%	1.1	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	2.1%	4.18	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		161	34	355	1501	273	138	28	21%	2.2	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	1.8%	3.42	3.74	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	19	200	846	154	78	16	21%	2.2	18.2%	9.2%	9.0%	1.8%	3.42	3.74	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	17.7%	9.4%	2.2%	—	4.62	17.1%	7.1%	134	+0.23	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Nick Ramirez L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	28	SU	4.35	14.3%	11.9%	1.7%	.269	3.81	21.5%	13.4%	162	-0.54	2.93	478	78
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	77
Lucas Luetge L 2015 · 5.08 FIP	28	SU	5.08	14.0%	10.4%	3.4%	.299	4.12	20.9%	10.7%	87	-0.96	2.53	430	77
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	76
Christian Friedrich L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	28	SU	3.67	16.7%	8.5%	1.6%	.355	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	129	+0.29	3.67	188	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	74
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	74
Jeremy Bleich L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	14.3%	6.3%	1.2%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.35	3.20	241	73
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	73
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	73
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	73
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	72
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	72
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	72
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	72
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	71
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	71
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	71
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	17.3%	9.8%	0.90	4.36
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97