Duncan Snider prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Duncan Snider P San Antonio Missions

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%19.0%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	6	48	197	57	12	3	55%	4.4	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.1%	4.31	3.36	—
2022	24	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	6	48	197	57	12	3	55%	4.4	28.9%	6.1%	22.8%	1.5%	4.31	2.29	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	48	222	34	34	5	86%	3.5	12.1%	16.4%	-4.3%	3.4%	5.40	6.04	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	48	222	34	34	5	86%	3.5	12.1%	16.4%	-4.3%	3.4%	5.40	6.04	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	48	222	34	34	5	86%	3.5	15.3%	15.3%	0.0%	2.3%	5.40	5.15	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	4	4	26	110	21	13	3	100%	6.5	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	5.09	5.14	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	1	1	8	34	6	4	1	100%	8.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	5.09	5.14	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.2	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	5.09	4.77	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	98	24	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	5.09	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		25	18	96	419	69	51	12	72%	3.9	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	2.8%	4.86	4.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	870	143	105	24	72%	3.9	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	2.8%	4.86	4.78	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Duncan Snider (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.0%	12.3%	3.0%	—	5.14	19.2%	7.0%	26	+0.05	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	81
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	75
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	73
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	71
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	70
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	70
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	70
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	70
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	69
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	69
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	68
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	67
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.84	13.6%	7.1%	327	+0.23	4.01	800	67
Brandon Beachy R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	16.1%	11.2%	2.6%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	67
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	66
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	19.1%	12.3%	1.20	5.09
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43